UC Santa Barbara hosts Oakland on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Gauchos the clear favourite, rating them at 90% to win largely because they are undefeated in their first game, scoring 85 points per contest while holding opponents to 55, and sit 66th in the league, whereas Oakland is 0-2, averaging 65.5 points and conceding 82.5, positioned 324th. UC Santa Barbara's single all-season game shows a 1-0 record with 85.0 points per game and 55.0 allowed, and their home record mirrors that, while Oakland's two all-season games give a 0-2 record with 65.5 points and 82.5 allowed. In the last five games, UC Santa Barbara went 2-3, with a recent 85-55 win over San Francisco State at home, whereas Oakland went 1-4, most recently losing 63-81 to Stanford away. The two teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 84-70 score, a 153.9 total, and gives the Gauchos a 58% chance to cover the -12.5 line and a 58% chance the game will go over 150.5; the overtime probability is 2%. The game will hinge on UC Santa Barbara's ability to maintain its defensive edge against Oakland's struggling offense.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UC Santa Barbara winWon
90.2%fair 1.11
Best odds1.10
Implied88.2%
Edge+1.9pp
Oakland winLost
9.8%fair 10.15
Best odds8.16
Implied11.8%
Edge-1.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UC Santa Barbara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
73.9%
@ 1.44+7.2pp
Under 143.5
26.1%
@ 3.05-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.55
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
63.0%
@ 1.88+12.3pp
Under 148.5
37.0%
@ 1.99-12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.99
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
50.9%
@ 2.35+10.2pp
Under 153.5
49.1%
@ 1.60-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
UC Santa Barbara total 78Actual: UC Santa Barbara over 78
Over 78
75.0%
Under 78
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Santa Barbara total 82 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara over 82
Over 82
60.1%
@ 1.86+10.2pp
Under 82
39.9%
@ 1.85-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
UC Santa Barbara total 86Actual: UC Santa Barbara over 86
Over 86
43.4%
Under 86
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 65Actual: Oakland over 65
Over 65
67.8%
Under 65
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 69 · main lineActual: Oakland under 69
Over 69
51.8%
@ 1.86+2.0pp
Under 69
48.2%
@ 1.85-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Oakland total 73Actual: Oakland under 73
Over 73
35.7%
Under 73
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UC Santa Barbara -16.5Actual: UC Santa Barbara -16.5
UC S -16.5
43.9%
@ 2.50+4.9pp
OAKL +16.5
56.1%
@ 1.55-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27
OAKL
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Spread UC Santa Barbara -13.5 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara -13.5
UC S -13.5
54.6%
@ 1.91+4.0pp
OAKL +13.5
45.4%
@ 1.95-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
OAKL
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
Spread UC Santa Barbara -10.5Actual: UC Santa Barbara -10.5
UC S -10.5
65.0%
@ 1.58+6.1pp
OAKL +10.5
35.0%
@ 2.27-6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
UC S
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
OAKL
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UC Santa BarbaraOakland
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UC Santa Barbara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UC Santa Barbara win
UC S win
no forecast
@ 1.31
OAKL win
no forecast
@ 3.50
2nd half Spread UC Santa Barbara -5.5 · main lineActual: UC Santa Barbara -5.5
UC S -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
OAKL +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UC Santa Barbara (regulation)
UC S
no forecast
@ 1.34
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
OAKL
no forecast
@ 3.50
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC Santa Barbara over 78.5
72.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 76.5
78.9%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 77.5
75.8%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 72.5
88.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -4
84.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.9%
1.45
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 73.5
86.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -5.5
80.0%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Over 143.5
73.9%
1.39
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 75.5
81.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 142.5
75.9%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara (regulation)
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.09
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -5
82.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -8
73.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Oakland over 63.5
72.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 71.5
90.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -6
79.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -4.5
82.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -9
70.5%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -7.5
74.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -6.5
77.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -7
76.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -8.5
71.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 65.5
97.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Over 144
73.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 67.5
95.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 69.5
93.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Over 145
71.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara -3.5
84.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara over 63.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 143
75.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara +6.5
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7pp
-
Oakland over 52.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Oakland over 60.5
81.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara +1.5
91.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Oakland over 54.5
93.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Oakland over 50.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Oakland over 62.5
75.6%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 126.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Oakland over 56.5
90.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Oakland under 86.5
94.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 141.5
77.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Oakland over 58.5
86.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 99.5
93.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 101.5
95.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara win
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.09
Pinnacle
1.09
WilliamHill
1.08
+1.9pp
Won
Oakland under 84.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Oakland under 82.5
89.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 97.5
90.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Oakland under 79.5
83.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Oakland under 80.5
85.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Oakland under 78.5
81.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Oakland under 76.5
75.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 95.5
86.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Oakland over 59.5
84.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Oakland +23.5
77.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 93.5
82.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
UC Santa Barbara under 92.5
79.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Oakland +21.5
72.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Lost
UC Santa Barbara under 91.5
76.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Oakland +21
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
Under 166.5
78.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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