USC Upstate faces South Carolina St on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the home side at 81% because of their stronger season numbers and recent form; the model rates them highly with a projected 80-70 score and an 81% chance to win. USC Upstate's all-games record is 0-1 with 70.0 points per game and 83.0 allowed, placing them 303rd, while South Carolina St sits 1-0 with 94.0 points per game and 55.0 allowed, 52nd in the league. In the last five encounters USC Upstate has 2 wins and 3 losses, including a 70-83 loss to East Carolina, a 64-65 loss to Gardner Webb, and a 71-61 win over Gardner Webb; South Carolina St's last five show 4 wins and 1 loss, with a 94-55 victory over Morris College, a 61-78 loss to Howard, and an 88-82 win over Norfolk State. Historically USC Upstate has won 4 of 5 meetings, most recently 78-72 on 16 December 2025. The Pythia spread of -8.0 gives USC Upstate a 58% chance to cover, the total line is 149.0 with a 51% over probability, and the game has a 4% overtime likelihood, ending with a projected 149.6 total points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
USC Upstate winLost
81.3%fair 1.23
Best odds1.65
Implied61.7%
Edge+19.6pp
South Carolina St winWon
18.7%fair 5.34
Best odds3.27
Implied38.3%
Edge-19.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (USC Upstate) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
64.1%
@ 1.47+1.0pp
Under 143.5
35.9%
@ 2.55-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
52.1%
@ 1.92+2.4pp
Under 148.5
47.9%
@ 1.91-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
40.0%
@ 2.55+2.5pp
Under 153.5
60.0%
@ 1.50-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
USC Upstate total 74.5Actual: USC Upstate under 74.5
Over 74.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under 74.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
USC Upstate total 78.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate under 78.5
Over 78.5
55.3%
@ 2.27+5.9pp
Under 78.5
44.7%
@ 1.86-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.50
USC Upstate total 82.5Actual: USC Upstate under 82.5
Over 82.5
39.4%
@ 2.72+6.3pp
Under 82.5
60.6%
@ 1.35-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.35
South Carolina St total 67Actual: South Carolina St over 67
Over 67
60.5%
Under 67
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Carolina St total 71 · main lineActual: South Carolina St over 71
Over 71
44.3%
@ 1.85-5.7pp
Under 71
55.7%
@ 1.85+5.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
South Carolina St total 75Actual: South Carolina St over 75
Over 75
29.3%
Under 75
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread USC Upstate -9.5Actual: South Carolina St +9.5
USC -9.5
52.1%
@ 3.15+20.3pp
SOUT +9.5
47.9%
@ 1.41-20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
USC
Betano
3.15
Bet365
2.70
SOUT
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.30
Spread USC Upstate -6.5 · main lineActual: South Carolina St +6.5
USC -6.5
63.0%
@ 2.40+17.0pp
SOUT +6.5
37.0%
@ 1.83-17.0pp
Best 5 market prices
USC
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
SOUT
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.50
Spread USC Upstate -3.5Actual: South Carolina St +3.5
USC -3.5
73.3%
@ 1.95+22.2pp
SOUT +3.5
26.7%
@ 1.96-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
USC
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
USC UpstateSouth Carolina St
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
USC UpstateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNC Asheville
#237
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A04/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H07/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H13/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A19/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H05/03
NCAA
East Carolina
#224
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A03/11
NCAA
67.8Avg total
33.5Scored
34.3Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 69.5
Last 30 (30)
32.8
33.6
66.4
-0.8
37%
30%
Last 30 at home (15)
34.9
32.6
67.5
+2.3
47%
40%
Last 30 away (15)
30.7
34.6
65.3
-3.9
27%
20%
Last 10 (10)
33.5
34.3
67.8
-0.8
50%
40%
Last 5 (5)
34.0
32.0
66.0
+2.0
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)
28.4
38.3
66.8
-9.9
0%
22%
vs Similar (14)
32.9
33.9
66.7
-1.0
29%
36%
vs Weaker (7)
38.4
27.0
65.4
+11.4
100%
29%
This opponent (South Carolina St) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (USC Upstate) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: South Carolina St win
USC win
no forecast
@ 1.75
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 2.10
2nd half Spread USC Upstate -2.5 · main lineActual: South Carolina St +2.5
USC -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
SOUT +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
USC Upstate 2nd half total 39.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate under 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
South Carolina St 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: South Carolina St over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Spread USC Upstate -3.5Actual: South Carolina St +3.5
USC -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
SOUT +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread USC Upstate -1.5Actual: South Carolina St +1.5
USC -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
SOUT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: South Carolina St (regulation)
USC
no forecast
@ 1.80
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
SOUT
no forecast
@ 2.15
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
USC Upstate -4
72.4%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.80
-
+23.8pp
Lost
USC Upstate -3.5
73.3%
1.87
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
+22.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate (regulation)
79.1%
1.62
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate -3
75.3%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Bet365
1.66
-
+22.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate -1.5
79.3%
1.62
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate win
81.3%
1.52
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathon Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.55
+19.6pp
Lost
USC Upstate +4.5
88.8%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate +1.5
83.0%
1.45
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
USC Upstate +5.5
90.4%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
USC Upstate -2
78.5%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate +2.5
85.4%
1.39
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate -1
80.9%
1.48
Bet365
1.48
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Lost
USC Upstate -2.5
75.9%
1.70
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
-
+17.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate +3.5
87.1%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate +1
82.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Lost
USC Upstate +2
85.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate +3
86.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
South Carolina St under 76.5
74.8%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
USC Upstate +6.5
91.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Lost
South Carolina St under 78.5
80.5%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
South Carolina St under 75.5
71.7%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
South Carolina St under 77.5
77.8%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Lost
USC Upstate +10.5
95.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
USC Upstate +15.5
98.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
South Carolina St under 79.5
83.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.8pp
-
USC Upstate +20.5
99.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
South Carolina St over 53.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 128.5
90.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
USC Upstate under 95.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 141
70.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
USC Upstate under 93.5
91.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
South Carolina St over 55.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
South Carolina St +24.5
89.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Over 133.5
83.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
87.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
South Carolina St over 57.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
USC Upstate under 91.5
87.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
South Carolina St over 59.5
84.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
USC Upstate under 89.5
83.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
South Carolina St +19.5
79.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
South Carolina St over 62.5
75.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
South Carolina St over 61.5
78.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
USC Upstate under 87.5
77.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
USC Upstate under 86.5
74.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
South Carolina St over 63.5
72.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
USC Upstate under 85.5
71.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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