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Vanderbilt vs Bellarmine Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 87-70
Projected total 156.9
Final 93-47
44-17 49-30
Position#30
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Vanderbilt 🏆
USA
Vs
93%
■ VAND 93%■ BELL 7%
Pythia win probability
Bellarmine
USA
Position#383
Record-
FormLLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Vanderbilt hosts Bellarmine on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Commodores the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their dominant home form and the 87 projected points compared with Bellarmine's 70; Bellarmine's 7% chance reflects a weaker away record. Vanderbilt's last five games include a 78-68 home win over McNeese State, a 72-74 loss to Nebraska away, and a 75-86 defeat to Arkansas away, with two recent results highlighted: the 78-68 victory and the 72-74 loss. Bellarmine's recent five outings feature a 111-97 home win over Austin Peay, a 82-79 home win over Jacksonville Dolphins, and a 73-86 loss to Central Arkansas away, with the 111-97 and 82-79 games noted. The projected score is 87-70 and the total points 156.9, which sits just below the 158.5 line, giving a 46% probability of the over; the overtime probability is 2%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vanderbilt winWon
92.9%fair 1.08
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bellarmine winLost
7.1%fair 14.03
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VanderbiltUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#67
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H26/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
77-91
77
91
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
89-86 OT
89
86
+3
A04/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H13/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
91-74
91
74
+17
A14/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A15/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
78-68
78
68
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A22/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-31
30-38
42-35
46-45
31-46
46-45
33-37
43-39
32-22
54-60
31-31
44-37
47-34
44-40
39-41
36-45
38-35
40-33
32-39
40-35
157.4Avg total
79.6Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.677.8157.4+1.860%
Last 5 (5)78.274.0152.2+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)92.586.0178.5+6.550%
vs Similar (12)80.877.0157.8+3.867%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)83.372.5155.8+10.875%
This opponent (Bellarmine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BellarmineUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stetson
#304
W
92-71
92
71
+21
H06/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
81-65
81
65
+16
H07/02
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
L
76-84
76
84
-8
A12/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
L
70-90
70
90
-20
A14/02
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H19/02
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
L
92-95
92
95
-3
H22/02
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
W
111-97
111
97
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
82-79
82
79
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
L
73-86
73
86
-13
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
47-35
45-36
32-31
49-34
34-33
42-51
33-53
37-37
28-36
44-39
42-53
50-42
29-34
39-39
48-46
63-51
47-32
35-47
34-48
39-38
163.2Avg total
81.7Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.781.5163.2+0.240%
Last 5 (5)85.286.0171.2-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)78.685.1163.7-6.520%
vs Similar (14)78.978.8157.7+0.157%
vs Weaker (5)89.280.6169.8+8.640%
This opponent (Vanderbilt) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
58.1%
@ 1.47-4.9pp
Under 153.5
41.9%
@ 2.55+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
45.8%
@ 1.90-4.2pp
Under 158.5
54.2%
@ 1.90+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
34.0%
@ 2.55-3.1pp
Under 163.5
66.0%
@ 1.47+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Vanderbilt total 91.5Actual: Vanderbilt over 91.5
Over 91.5
32.3%
@ 1.40-32.3pp
Under 91.5
67.7%
@ 2.55+32.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Vanderbilt total 95.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt under 95.5
Over 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Vanderbilt total 99.5Actual: Vanderbilt under 99.5
Over 99.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 99.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Bellarmine total 58.5Actual: Bellarmine under 58.5
Over 58.5
87.2%
@ 1.34+19.6pp
Under 58.5
12.8%
@ 2.80-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
Bellarmine total 62.5 · main lineActual: Bellarmine under 62.5
Over 62.5
76.9%
@ 1.94+26.9pp
Under 62.5
23.1%
@ 1.93-26.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Bellarmine total 66.5Actual: Bellarmine under 66.5
Over 66.5
63.1%
@ 2.45+26.1pp
Under 66.5
36.9%
@ 1.44-26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vanderbilt -34.5Actual: Vanderbilt -34.5
VAND -34.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
BELL +34.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.07
BELL
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
Spread Vanderbilt -31.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt -31.5
VAND -31.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
BELL +31.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
VAND
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.74
Bet365
1.74
BELL
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Spread Vanderbilt -28.5Actual: Vanderbilt -28.5
VAND -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
BELL +28.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
BELL
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +2.9+2.9
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.9+0.91st half: -2.7-2.72nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +2.9+2.9
VanderbiltBellarmine
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VanderbiltLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#67
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H26/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A28/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A04/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
32-22
32
22
+10
A07/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H13/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
47-34
47
34
+13
A14/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A15/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H19/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A22/03
NCAA
71.1Avg total
36.0Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)40.035.075.0+4.967%57%
Last 30 at home (15)41.534.275.7+7.380%53%
Last 30 away (15)38.435.974.3+2.553%60%
Last 10 (10)36.035.171.1+0.950%40%
Last 5 (5)37.436.073.4+1.440%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)46.039.085.0+7.0100%100%
vs Similar (12)38.135.873.9+2.258%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)40.633.974.6+6.769%56%
This opponent (Bellarmine) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BellarmineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stetson
#304
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H06/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
32-31
32
31
+1
H07/02
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A12/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
L
33-53
33
53
-20
A14/02
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
L
28-36
28
36
-8
H19/02
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#313
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H22/02
NCAA
North Alabama
#341
L
29-34
29
34
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
W
48-46
48
46
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A06/03
NCAA
77.5Avg total
37.4Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)36.540.176.6-3.643%53%
Last 30 at home (16)38.437.275.7+1.262%50%
Last 30 away (14)34.343.477.6-9.121%57%
Last 10 (10)37.440.177.5-2.750%60%
Last 5 (5)40.042.682.6-2.640%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)35.344.079.3-8.730%80%
vs Similar (14)35.739.875.5-4.143%43%
vs Weaker (5)40.236.276.4+4.060%40%
This opponent (Vanderbilt) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -16.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt -16.5
VAND -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
BELL +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Vanderbilt 1st half total 46.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt under 46.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Bellarmine 1st half total 30 · main lineActual: Bellarmine under 30
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -17.5Actual: Vanderbilt -17.5
VAND -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
BELL +17.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -15.5Actual: Vanderbilt -15.5
VAND -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
BELL +15.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.30
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -18.5Actual: Vanderbilt -18.5
VAND -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
BELL +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -14.5Actual: Vanderbilt -14.5
VAND -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
BELL +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.82
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -19.5Actual: Vanderbilt -19.5
VAND -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
BELL +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -20.5Actual: Vanderbilt -20.5
VAND -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
BELL +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -21.5Actual: Vanderbilt -21.5
VAND -21.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
BELL +21.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -22.5Actual: Vanderbilt -22.5
VAND -22.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
BELL +22.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Vanderbilt (regulation)
VAND
no forecast
@ 1.01
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
BELL
no forecast
@ 17.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VAND win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
BELL win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
🔒 2 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Bellarmine +2576.8%3.35
Bet365
3.35		----+49.2ppLost
Bellarmine +24.574.8%3.45
Bet365
3.45		----+47.9ppLost
Bellarmine over 62.576.9%1.85
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.78		-+26.9ppLost
Bellarmine over 61.579.8%1.73
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.62		---+26.7ppLost
Bellarmine over 64.570.4%2.10
Betano
2.10		----+26.4ppLost
Bellarmine over 6376.1%1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83		---+25.9ppLost
Bellarmine over 63.573.7%1.92
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91		---+25.5ppLost
Bellarmine over 60.582.5%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+22.3ppLost
Bellarmine over 59.585.0%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+21.0ppLost
Bellarmine over 58.587.2%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+19.6ppLost
Bellarmine over 57.589.2%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+18.4ppLost
Under 165.570.4%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35		---+2.6ppWon
Under 16671.9%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+1.9ppWon
Under 166.572.5%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+1.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Vanderbilt wins
0
Bellarmine wins
No previous meetings.
Vanderbiltlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/26ANebraska72-74
19/03/26HMcNeese State78-68
15/03/26AArkansas75-86
14/03/26AFlorida91-74
13/03/26HTennessee75-68
07/03/26ATennessee86-82
04/03/26AOle Miss89-86 OT
28/02/26AKentucky77-91
26/02/26HGeorgia88-80
21/02/26HTennessee65-69
Bellarminelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26ACentral Arkansas73-86
04/03/26HJacksonville Dolphins82-79
28/02/26HAustin Peay111-97
26/02/26ANorth Alabama68-73
22/02/26HEastern Kentucky92-95
19/02/26HLipscomb72-75
14/02/26AAustin Peay70-90
12/02/26ACentral Arkansas76-84
07/02/26HFlorida Gulf Coast81-65
06/02/26HStetson92-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vanderbilt
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Bellarmine
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 158.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
ASUN conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Queens Royals110100%103.098.0+5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Vanderbilt444993
Bellarmine173047
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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