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Vanderbilt vs Memphis Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Projected 89-67
Projected total 156.3
Final 105-81
47-42 58-39
Position#19
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game49.0
Vanderbilt 🏆
USA
Vs
97%
■ VAND 97%■ MEMP 3%
Pythia win probability
Memphis
USA
Position#184
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game82.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Vanderbilt v Memphis
10 Nov 2026
VAND105
MEMP81
07 Nov 2022
VAND67
MEMP76
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The NCAA matchup on 10 November 2026 pits Vanderbilt against Memphis, with the model ranking Vanderbilt as the clear favourite because of their dominant 2-0 record, 83.5 points per game and 49.0 allowed per game, and a 97% probability of winning; Memphis, while also unbeaten at 2-0, averages 84.5 points and concedes 82.0, yielding only a 3% chance of victory. Vanderbilt's season shows a 2-0 record, 83.5 points scored and 49.0 allowed, and they have won both home games, including a 93-47 rout of Bellarmine and a 74-51 win over Wake Forest, while Memphis has a 2-0 record, 84.5 points scored and 82.0 allowed, with a 1-0 road record highlighted by an 80-76 win over Iowa State; their recent 89-88 win over VCU Rams and 69-81 loss to Tulane illustrate close contests. Historically, Memphis has edged Vanderbilt twice in three meetings, most recently 77-70 on 17 December 2025. Pythia projects a 89-67 score, with Vanderbilt covering the -16.5 spread 70% of the time and the over on the 158.5 total occurring 44% of the time, while the chance of overtime is 1%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vanderbilt winWon
97.0%fair 1.03
Best odds1.06
Implied89.8%
Edge+7.2pp
Memphis winLost
3.0%fair 33.41
Best odds10.00
Implied10.2%
Edge-7.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VanderbiltUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
77-91
77
91
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
89-86 OT
89
86
+3
A04/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H13/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
91-74
91
74
+17
A14/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A15/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
78-68
78
68
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A22/03
NCAA
Bellarmine
#331
W
93-47
93
47
+46
H03/11
NCAA
Wake Forest
#170
W
74-51
74
51
+23
H05/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-46
46-45
33-37
43-39
32-22
54-60
31-31
44-37
47-34
44-40
39-41
36-45
38-35
40-33
32-39
40-35
44-17
49-30
39-27
35-24
153.7Avg total
81.0Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)83.549.0132.5+34.5100%
Season at home (2)83.549.0132.5+34.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.072.7153.7+8.370%
Last 5 (5)78.465.2143.6+13.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)92.586.0178.5+6.550%
vs Similar (10)78.577.9156.4+0.660%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)83.369.9153.2+13.478%
This opponent (Memphis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MemphisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
75-99
75
99
-24
A15/02
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
66-87
66
87
-21
A20/02
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
67-78
67
78
-11
H22/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
82-88
82
88
-6
H27/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
68-84
68
84
-16
A01/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
89-96
89
96
-7
H06/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H11/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#145
W
80-76
80
76
+4
A03/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#151
W
89-88
89
88
+1
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-48
41-51
31-47
35-40
30-46
37-32
35-40
47-48
30-44
38-40
46-51
43-45
31-40
50-41
31-39
38-42
40-39
40-37
44-48
45-40
165.3Avg total
78.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)84.582.0166.5+2.5100%
Season at home (1)89.088.0177.0+1.0100%
Season away (1)80.076.0156.0+4.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.187.2165.3-9.130%
Last 5 (5)84.687.2171.8-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)74.278.2152.3-4.042%
vs Similar (9)78.072.8150.8+5.256%
vs Weaker (2)81.576.5158.0+5.050%
This opponent (Vanderbilt) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
56.9%
@ 1.47-5.8pp
Under 153.5
43.1%
@ 2.47+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
44.5%
@ 1.85-6.5pp
Under 158.5
55.5%
@ 1.93+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Over 163.5
Over 163.5
32.7%
@ 2.40-5.8pp
Under 163.5
67.3%
@ 1.50+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Vanderbilt total 83.5Actual: Vanderbilt over 83.5
Over 83.5
72.5%
@ 1.38+7.0pp
Under 83.5
27.5%
@ 2.62-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Vanderbilt total 87.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt over 87.5
Over 87.5
57.6%
@ 1.85+7.1pp
Under 87.5
42.4%
@ 1.91-7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Vanderbilt total 91.5Actual: Vanderbilt over 91.5
Over 91.5
41.5%
@ 2.55+6.1pp
Under 91.5
58.5%
@ 1.40-6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Memphis total 67Actual: Memphis over 67
Over 67
49.5%
Under 67
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis total 71 · main lineActual: Memphis over 71
Over 71
33.3%
@ 1.85-16.7pp
Under 71
66.7%
@ 1.85+16.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Memphis total 75Actual: Memphis over 75
Over 75
20.0%
Under 75
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vanderbilt -19.5Actual: Vanderbilt -19.5
VAND -19.5
60.3%
@ 2.30+20.4pp
MEMP +19.5
39.7%
@ 1.53-20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Betano
2.30
MEMP
Betano
1.53
Spread Vanderbilt -16.5 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt -16.5
VAND -16.5
70.1%
@ 1.90+20.5pp
MEMP +16.5
29.9%
@ 1.87-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
MEMP
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Spread Vanderbilt -13.5Actual: Vanderbilt -13.5
VAND -13.5
78.5%
@ 1.57+19.6pp
MEMP +13.5
21.5%
@ 2.25-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Betano
1.57
MEMP
Betano
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +3.7+3.71st half: -9.0-9.02nd half2nd half: +4.3+4.32nd half: -0.2-0.2
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +3.7+3.71st half: -9.0-9.02nd half2nd half: +4.3+4.32nd half: -0.2-0.2
VanderbiltMemphis
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VanderbiltLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A28/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A04/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
32-22
32
22
+10
A07/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H13/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
47-34
47
34
+13
A14/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A15/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H19/03
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A22/03
NCAA
Bellarmine
#331
W
44-17
44
17
+27
H03/11
NCAA
Wake Forest
#170
W
39-27
39
27
+12
H05/11
NCAA
69.5Avg total
36.6Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)39.634.073.6+5.667%47%
Last 30 at home (16)40.932.773.6+8.281%44%
Last 30 away (14)38.135.573.6+2.650%50%
Last 10 (10)36.632.969.5+3.750%30%
Last 5 (5)38.431.870.2+6.660%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)46.039.085.0+7.0100%100%
vs Similar (10)36.335.571.8+0.850%40%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)40.732.673.3+8.172%44%
This opponent (Memphis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MemphisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah State
#20
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A15/02
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A20/02
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H22/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H27/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A01/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
46-51
46
51
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A08/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H11/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#145
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A03/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#151
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H07/11
NCAA
79.4Avg total
35.2Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)34.836.171.0-1.340%23%
Last 30 at home (17)36.433.269.6+3.259%12%
Last 30 away (13)32.839.972.7-7.215%38%
Last 10 (10)35.244.279.4-9.010%50%
Last 5 (5)38.443.481.8-5.020%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)34.637.872.4-3.237%37%
vs Similar (9)34.932.167.0+2.844%0%
vs Weaker (2)36.538.575.0-2.050%0%
This opponent (Vanderbilt) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vanderbilt win
VAND win
no forecast
@ 1.14
MEMP win
no forecast
@ 5.80
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -9.5 · main lineActual: Memphis +9.5
VAND -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
MEMP +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Vanderbilt 1st half total 43 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt over 43
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Memphis 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Memphis over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -10.5Actual: Memphis +10.5
VAND -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
MEMP +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -8.5Actual: Memphis +8.5
VAND -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
MEMP +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -11.5Actual: Memphis +11.5
VAND -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
MEMP +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -7.5Actual: Memphis +7.5
VAND -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
MEMP +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.60
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -12.5Actual: Memphis +12.5
VAND -12.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
MEMP +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Vanderbilt -6.5Actual: Memphis +6.5
VAND -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
MEMP +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Vanderbilt (regulation)
VAND
no forecast
@ 1.16
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
MEMP
no forecast
@ 6.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VAND win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
MEMP win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VAND leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Vanderbilt -14.575.9%1.69
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.65		---+21.0ppWon
Vanderbilt -15.573.1%1.77
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.73		--+20.9ppWon
Vanderbilt -16.570.1%1.87
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.83		-+20.5ppWon
Vanderbilt -1672.2%1.79
Marathon Bet
1.79		----+20.5ppWon
Vanderbilt -13.578.5%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+19.6ppWon
Vanderbilt -12.580.9%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+19.4ppWon
Vanderbilt -11.583.2%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+18.3ppWon
Vanderbilt -10.585.2%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+17.4ppWon
Vanderbilt -9.587.1%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+16.8ppWon
Memphis under 72.571.4%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+16.1ppLost
Memphis under 73.574.7%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+15.7ppLost
Memphis under 74.577.8%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+15.2ppLost
Memphis under 75.580.6%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+14.5ppLost
Memphis under 76.583.2%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+14.0ppLost
Vanderbilt (regulation)96.5%1.07
1xBet
1.09
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.04		--+11.6ppWon
Vanderbilt win97.0%1.05
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.04
WilliamHill
1.04		-+7.2ppWon
Vanderbilt over 82.575.8%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+7.0ppWon
Vanderbilt over 83.572.5%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+7.0ppWon
Under 165.571.7%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+5.8ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Vanderbilt wins
2
Memphis wins
DateGameScore
18/12/25Memphis v Vanderbilt70-77 OT
23/12/23Memphis v Vanderbilt77-75
08/11/22Vanderbilt v Memphis67-76
Vanderbiltlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HWake Forest74-51
03/11/26HBellarmine93-47
22/03/26ANebraska72-74
19/03/26HMcNeese State78-68
15/03/26AArkansas75-86
14/03/26AFlorida91-74
13/03/26HTennessee75-68
07/03/26ATennessee86-82
04/03/26AOle Miss89-86 OT
28/02/26AKentucky77-91
Memphislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HVCU Rams89-88
03/11/26AIowa State80-76
11/03/26HTulane69-81
08/03/26ATulane96-95 OT
06/03/26HSouth Florida89-96
01/03/26AEast Carolina68-84
27/02/26HWichita State82-88
22/02/26HUAB67-78
20/02/26ASouth Florida66-87
15/02/26AUtah State75-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vanderbilt
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game83.583.5-
Allowed / game49.049.0-
Point differential+34.5+34.5-
Avg total132.5132.5-
Over 158.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Memphis
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game84.589.080.0
Allowed / game82.088.076.0
Point differential+2.5+1.0+4.0
Avg total166.5177.0156.0
Over 158.550%100%0%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU330100%94.052.7+41.3
3 Ole Miss220100%95.559.0+36.5
4 Texas A&M330100%103.066.7+36.3
5 Vanderbilt220100%83.549.0+34.5
6 Mississippi St.330100%95.363.0+32.3
7 Auburn220100%83.556.0+27.5
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Alabama330100%102.076.0+26.0
10 Kentucky220100%87.068.5+18.5
11 South Carolina220100%79.561.5+18.0
12 Florida330100%82.065.3+16.7
13 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
14 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
15 Oklahoma32167%76.365.7+10.7
16 Arkansas21150%89.076.0+13.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 North Texas220100%99.558.5+41.0
2 Tulsa220100%96.062.5+33.5
3 Memphis220100%84.582.0+2.5
4 UAB32167%80.075.3+4.7
5 Charlotte32167%72.368.3+4.0
6 South Florida21150%89.076.5+12.5
7 East Carolina21150%79.074.0+5.0
8 Wichita State21150%82.580.0+2.5
9 Tulane21150%92.592.5+0.0
10 Florida Atlantic21150%72.578.5-6.0
11 Temple21150%60.567.5-7.0
12 UTSA Roadrunners21150%72.081.5-9.5
13 Rice31233%81.372.7+8.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Vanderbilt4758105
Memphis423981
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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