PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
On 2 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits VMI against Virginia-Lynchburg, with the Pythia model declaring VMI the clear favourite at 99% to 1%. VMI's season record shows a dominant 113-51 win over Virginia-Lynchburg last December, and the model's high rating reflects that historic advantage and the team's projected 95-65 scoreline, which gives a projected total of 159.9 points. Virginia-Lynchburg's last five games have all been losses, including a 53-128 defeat to Morgan State, a 53-131 loss to NC Greensboro, and a 62-149 loss to Campbell, while VMI's recent five have also been all losses, such as a 70-84 loss to NC Greensboro, a 79-86 loss to Chattanooga Mocs, and a 61-80 loss to Samford. The Pythia model assigns a 99% probability that VMI will win and a 1% chance for Virginia-Lynchburg, with VMI projected to score 95 points to Virginia-Lynchburg's 65. The model also estimates a 0% chance of overtime. The game will likely see VMI maintain its historical edge, as evidenced by the 113-51 victory in their sole prior meeting.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 70.9 | 85.8 | 156.7 | -14.9 | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 69.6 | 82.6 | 152.2 | -13.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (26) | 69.6 | 82.0 | 151.6 | -12.3 | 12% |
| vs Similar (3) | 68.0 | 87.0 | 155.0 | -19.0 | 0% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 56.2 | 129.0 | 185.2 | -72.8 | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 55.0 | 133.0 | 188.0 | -78.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (30) | 56.9 | 120.1 | 177.0 | -63.2 | 0% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.4 | 39.2 | 72.6 | -5.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 36.1 | 36.1 | 72.2 | +0.0 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 31.3 | 41.6 | 72.9 | -10.3 | 6% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.2 | 41.8 | 72.0 | -11.6 | 0% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.6 | 39.8 | 71.4 | -8.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (26) | 32.9 | 39.7 | 72.6 | -6.8 | 19% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 32.3 | 41.7 | 74.0 | -9.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 26.4 | 59.7 | 86.1 | -33.3 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 at home | no games | |||||
| Last 30 away (30) | 26.4 | 59.7 | 86.1 | -33.3 | 0% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 25.2 | 63.7 | 88.9 | -38.5 | 0% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 26.2 | 64.4 | 90.6 | -38.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (30) | 26.4 | 59.7 | 86.1 | -33.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 03/12/24 | VMI v Virginia-Lynchburg | 113-51 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 | A | NC Greensboro | 70-84 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Chattanooga Mocs | 79-86 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Samford | 61-80 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Western Carolina | 62-81 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Wofford | 76-82 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Furman | 72-90 |
| 12/02/26 | A | NC Greensboro | 71-92 |
| 07/02/26 | H | East Tennessee St | 70-87 |
| 04/02/26 | H | Wofford | 67-81 |
| 31/01/26 | A | Mercer | 81-95 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 | A | Morgan State | 53-128 |
| 21/12/25 | A | NC Greensboro | 53-131 |
| 07/12/25 | A | Campbell | 62-149 |
| 03/12/25 | A | Appalachian State | 45-133 |
| 02/12/25 | A | Western Carolina | 62-124 |
| 26/11/25 | A | Norfolk State | 79-136 |
| 15/11/25 | A | Alabama State | 68-124 |
| 11/11/25 | A | Tennessee Tech | 58-118 |
| 08/11/25 | A | Coastal Carolina | 44-121 |
| 18/01/25 | A | Delaware State | 38-126 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicholls State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 110.0 | 56.0 | +54.0 |
| 2 | Illinois (Chi.) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 47.0 | +49.0 |
| 3 | Hofstra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 51.0 | +46.0 |
| 4 | Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 117.0 | 73.0 | +44.0 |
| 5 | South Carolina St | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 55.0 | +39.0 |
| 6 | IU Indy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 113.0 | 76.0 | +37.0 |
| 7 | Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 8 | Princeton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 46.0 | +32.0 |
| 9 | Murray State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 10 | George Mason | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 54.0 | +28.0 |
| 11 | McNeese State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 78.0 | +21.0 |
| 12 | San Jose State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 74.0 | +21.0 |
| 13 | High Point | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 72.0 | 57.0 | +15.0 |
| 14 | Merrimack Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 |
| 15 | Northern Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 16 | Queens Royals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 |
| 17 | Grambling St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 87.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 19 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| 21 | Winthrop | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 98.0 | 103.0 | -5.0 |
| 22 | UTEP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 84.0 | -8.0 |
| 23 | Appalachian State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| 24 | Liberty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 72.0 | -15.0 |
| 25 | UAB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78.0 | 99.0 | -21.0 |
| 26 | UTSA Roadrunners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 74.0 | 95.0 | -21.0 |
| 27 | UMBC Retrievers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 82.0 | -28.0 |
| 28 | Tennessee State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 |
| 29 | Carnegie Mellon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 46.0 | 78.0 | -32.0 |
| 30 | Miami (OH) - Middletown | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 113.0 | -37.0 |
| 31 | Reinhardt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 53.0 | 90.0 | -37.0 |
| 32 | Morris College | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 94.0 | -39.0 |
| 33 | Fisk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 117.0 | -44.0 |
| 34 | St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 51.0 | 97.0 | -46.0 |
| 35 | St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
| 36 | North American Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 56.0 | 110.0 | -54.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 60 | 55 | 115 |
| Virginia-Lynchburg | 31 | 52 | 83 |
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