Washington will host Colgate in a low-scoring NCAA contest on 2 November 2026, with both teams expected to lean on tight defence and a slow pace. Washington, the model's favourite, has a 71% chance of winning and a projected 77-71 score, while Colgate has a 29% chance of winning and a projected 71 points. The projected total is 147.5, well below the 154.5 over-under line that carries a 33% probability of an over. Washington's spread is -14.5 with only a 23% chance of covering, and the game carries a 5% chance of overtime. Washington's last five games include a 83-79 home win over USC and a 82-85 away loss to Wisconsin, while Colgate's recent results feature a 90-77 home win over Loyola Maryland and an 85-69 away loss to Navy. The matchup is expected to be a defensive battle, with Washington's advantage reflected in the win probability and projected points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Washington winWon
71.3%fair 1.40
Best odds1.08
Implied88.7%
Edge-17.3pp
Colgate winLost
28.7%fair 3.49
Best odds9.50
Implied11.3%
Edge+17.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Washington total 84 · main lineActual: Washington over 84
Over 84
23.3%
@ 1.87-26.5pp
Under 84
76.7%
@ 1.85+26.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Washington total 88Actual: Washington over 88
Over 88
12.8%
Under 88
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colgate total 66Actual: Colgate over 66
Over 66
67.3%
Under 66
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colgate total 70 · main lineActual: Colgate over 70
Over 70
51.7%
@ 1.87+1.9pp
Under 70
48.3%
@ 1.85-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Colgate total 74Actual: Colgate over 74
Over 74
35.9%
Under 74
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Washington -17.5Actual: Colgate +17.5
WASH -17.5
16.4%
@ 2.35-23.7pp
COLG +17.5
83.6%
@ 1.55+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
COLG
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread Washington -14.5 · main lineActual: Colgate +14.5
WASH -14.5
23.5%
@ 1.91-26.5pp
COLG +14.5
76.5%
@ 1.91+26.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
COLG
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Washington -11.5Actual: Washington -11.5
WASH -11.5
32.3%
@ 1.55-27.5pp
COLG +11.5
67.7%
@ 2.30+27.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WASH
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
COLG
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
WashingtonColgate
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Washington win
WASH win
no forecast
@ 1.29
COLG win
no forecast
@ 3.60
2nd half Spread Washington -5.5 · main lineActual: Washington -5.5
WASH -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
COLG +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Washington (regulation)
WASH
no forecast
@ 1.33
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
COLG
no forecast
@ 3.65
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Colgate +13
72.9%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Lost
Washington under 82.5
71.1%
2.18
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Lost
Colgate +12.5
70.8%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
-
-
+29.4pp
Lost
Colgate +13.5
73.7%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+28.4pp
Lost
Colgate +14
75.8%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+28.3pp
Push
Washington under 84.5
77.5%
1.88
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+28.3pp
Lost
Washington under 85.5
80.3%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Lost
Washington under 83.5
74.4%
1.96
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Colgate +14.5
76.5%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
+26.5pp
Won
Washington under 84
76.7%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Washington under 86.5
82.9%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Colgate +15
78.5%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Colgate +15.5
79.1%
1.74
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
-
+24.5pp
Won
Colgate +16
81.0%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Colgate +17
83.3%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Colgate +17.5
83.6%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Washington under 88.5
87.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Washington under 87.5
85.3%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Lost
Colgate +16.5
81.5%
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Colgate +18
85.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Colgate +18.5
85.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Colgate +19
87.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Colgate +19.5
87.4%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Washington under 89.5
89.4%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Colgate +20
88.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Colgate +20.5
89.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Colgate +21
90.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Colgate +21.5
90.5%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
Colgate +22
91.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Under 156
70.7%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Colgate +22.5
91.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Washington under 91.5
92.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Under 156.5
71.3%
1.68
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.66
-
+16.4pp
Lost
Under 157.5
73.3%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Lost
Under 157
72.8%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
Under 158.5
75.2%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Under 158
74.8%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Lost
Under 159.5
77.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Under 159
76.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
78.8%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Under 160
78.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Under 161.5
80.5%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Lost
Colgate +24.5
93.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 161
80.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Under 162
81.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Lost
Under 162.5
82.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Under 164.5
85.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Under 169.5
90.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 174.5
94.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.4%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3pp
-
Colgate over 55.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Colgate over 56.5
91.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Colgate over 64.5
71.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Colgate over 57.5
89.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Colgate over 61.5
80.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Colgate over 58.5
87.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Colgate over 62.5
78.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Colgate under 84.5
90.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Colgate over 63.5
75.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Colgate over 59.5
85.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Colgate over 60.5
83.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Colgate under 82.5
87.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Colgate under 80.5
83.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Colgate under 79.5
80.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Colgate under 78.5
78.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Colgate under 76.5
72.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
86.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Washington +6.5
86.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Washington over 65.5
87.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Washington over 67.5
82.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
Over 134.5
78.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Washington over 69.5
76.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Washington win
71.3%
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
-17.3pp
Won
Washington over 71.5
70.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-17.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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