Weber State hosts Utah Valley State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Weber State at 64% to 36% and projecting a 78-74 win for the home side. Weber State enters the game with a 0-1 record, averaging 61.0 points scored and 102.0 allowed, while Utah Valley State is 1-0, averaging 84.0 points scored and 63.0 allowed; the two teams have split six meetings, the last being a 90-74 victory for Utah Valley State on 17 December 2025. In the last five contests Weber State has won two and lost three, including losses to Oregon State, East Washington and Portland State, whereas Utah Valley State has won four of five, with wins over Western Colorado, UT Arlington and a narrow loss to California Baptist. The model assigns a 7.5-point line to Weber State, with an 83% chance of covering, and a 155.0-point total with a 42% probability of the over; the overtime probability is 5%. The projected score of 78-74 yields a total of 152.2 points, slightly below the over line, and the game will likely stay within the spread. The recent results suggest Utah Valley State's offensive consistency could be a decisive factor.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Weber State winLost
63.5%fair 1.57
Best odds3.74
Implied25.8%
Edge+37.7pp
Utah Valley State winWon
36.5%fair 2.74
Best odds1.31
Implied74.2%
Edge-37.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Weber State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
52.3%
@ 1.50-10.2pp
Under 151
47.7%
@ 2.50+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Over 156
Over 156
40.0%
@ 1.92-10.5pp
Under 156
60.0%
@ 1.92+10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 161Actual: Over 161
Over 161
28.8%
@ 2.60-7.0pp
Under 161
71.2%
@ 1.45+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Weber State total 69.5Actual: Weber State over 69.5
Over 69.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 69.5
no forecast
@ 2.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.70
Weber State total 74 · main lineActual: Weber State over 74
Over 74
66.0%
@ 1.87+16.2pp
Under 74
34.0%
@ 1.85-16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Weber State total 78Actual: Weber State over 78
Over 78
50.2%
Under 78
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah Valley State total 77.5Actual: Utah Valley State over 77.5
Over 77.5
37.0%
@ 1.38-29.6pp
Under 77.5
63.0%
@ 2.85+29.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.62
Utah Valley State total 81.5 · main lineActual: Utah Valley State over 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.89
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Utah Valley State total 85.5Actual: Utah Valley State over 85.5
Over 85.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 85.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Weber State +4.5Actual: Utah Valley State -4.5
WEBE +4.5
75.7%
@ 2.35+36.1pp
UTAH -4.5
24.3%
@ 1.55-36.1pp
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
UTAH
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
Spread Weber State +7.5 · main lineActual: Utah Valley State -7.5
WEBE +7.5
83.4%
@ 1.91+33.0pp
UTAH -7.5
16.6%
@ 1.94-33.0pp
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
UTAH
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Spread Weber State +10.5Actual: Weber State +10.5
WEBE +10.5
89.0%
@ 1.55+29.1pp
UTAH -10.5
11.0%
@ 2.35-29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
WEBE
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
UTAH
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Weber StateUtah Valley State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Weber StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Colorado
#97
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H06/02
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H08/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
44-21
44
21
+23
A13/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
24-51
24
51
-27
A14/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H20/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H22/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A03/03
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#37
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A03/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
34.3Scored
37.1Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
36.5
36.9
73.4
-0.4
43%
43%
Last 30 at home (15)
38.9
34.0
72.9
+4.9
53%
47%
Last 30 away (15)
34.1
39.8
73.9
-5.7
33%
40%
Last 10 (10)
34.3
37.1
71.4
-2.8
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
35.2
39.2
74.4
-4.0
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)
30.5
42.8
73.2
-12.2
0%
25%
vs Similar (13)
36.5
36.1
72.5
+0.4
38%
46%
vs Weaker (13)
38.3
35.9
74.2
+2.4
62%
46%
This opponent (Utah Valley State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Weber State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Utah Valley State win
WEBE win
no forecast
@ 2.60
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 1.50
2nd half Spread Weber State +3.5 · main lineActual: Weber State +3.5
WEBE +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
UTAH -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Utah Valley State (regulation)
WEBE
no forecast
@ 2.65
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
UTAH
no forecast
@ 1.55
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Weber State +3
71.9%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Weber State +4
75.0%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
Weber State +6
80.6%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
2.02
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Weber State +5
77.9%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Weber State +5.5
78.5%
2.19
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Weber State +3.5
72.7%
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+36.3pp
Lost
Weber State +4.5
75.7%
2.33
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Lost
Weber State +6.5
81.1%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
+35.5pp
Lost
Weber State +7
83.0%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+35.1pp
Lost
Weber State +7.5
83.4%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
+33.0pp
Lost
Weber State +8
85.2%
1.78
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
-
+32.3pp
Push
Weber State +10
88.8%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Weber State +8.5
85.5%
1.76
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
+30.5pp
Won
Weber State +9
87.1%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.74
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.66
-
+30.1pp
Won
Weber State +10.5
89.0%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+29.1pp
Won
Weber State +9.5
87.4%
1.67
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.73
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
+28.4pp
Won
Weber State +11.5
90.5%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
Weber State +11
90.4%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
Weber State +12
91.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
Weber State +12.5
91.8%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Weber State +13.5
92.9%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+23.8pp
Won
Weber State +13
92.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
Weber State +14.5
93.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Weber State +14
93.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Weber State +15.5
94.8%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Weber State +16
95.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Weber State +15
94.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Weber State +16.5
95.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Weber State +17.5
96.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Weber State +22.5
98.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.8%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 162.5
73.7%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Under 164
77.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
Under 161
71.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Under 162
73.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Under 163.5
75.6%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Under 163
75.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 164.5
77.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 166.5
80.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 165.5
79.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Under 180.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Under 171.5
87.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Overtime: no
94.9%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Lost
Under 170.5
86.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
Under 175.5
91.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Weber State under 91.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Over 130.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
89.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Weber State under 89.5
86.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Lost
Over 135.5
84.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
82.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 62.5
87.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Weber State under 87.5
82.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Lost
Over 140.5
75.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 63.5
84.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 64.5
82.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Weber State under 85.5
76.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Lost
Over 141.5
73.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Weber State under 84.5
73.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Lost
Utah Valley State over 65.5
79.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
Weber State under 83.5
70.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Lost
Utah Valley State over 66.5
76.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Won
Utah Valley State +12.5
77.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 67.5
73.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-15.8pp
Won
Utah Valley State over 68.5
70.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-17.8pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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