West Virginia hosts Niagara on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating West Virginia as the clear favourite at 87% to win, a probability that reflects the Mountaineers' 75 projected points versus Niagara's 62, and the high likelihood that the home side will cover the spread. West Virginia's season record is 2-3 in the last five games, with a 48-68 loss to Brigham Young at home on 11 March 2026 and a 77-62 victory over UCF Knights at home on 6 March 2026, while Niagara is also 2-3 in its most recent five outings, having lost 66-73 to Merrimack Warriors at home on 1 March 2026 and beaten Quinnipiac 78-76 at home on 27 February 2026. The projected total of 136.6 points falls short of the 139.5 line, giving the model a 43% chance of the over, and there is a 3% probability the game will go into overtime. The Pythia forecast of a 75-62 scoreline underscores West Virginia's offensive edge and Niagara's recent defensive lapses, with the Mountaineers' home advantage poised to tip the balance.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 65.7 | 66.9 | 132.6 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.2 | 71.4 | 141.6 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 53.3 | 81.7 | 135.0 | -28.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 68.9 | 67.1 | 136.0 | +1.8 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 73.5 | 57.6 | 131.2 | +15.9 | 73% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 65.3 | 68.8 | 134.1 | -3.5 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 67.8 | 72.0 | 139.8 | -4.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (22) | 62.5 | 74.1 | 136.6 | -11.6 | 14% |
| vs Similar (6) | 66.3 | 63.5 | 129.8 | +2.8 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 62.0 | 67.0 | 129.0 | -5.0 | 0% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.8 | 30.4 | 62.2 | +1.4 | 50% | 13% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 34.5 | 28.5 | 63.0 | +6.0 | 67% | 11% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 27.8 | 33.3 | 61.1 | -5.6 | 25% | 17% |
| Last 10 (10) | 27.5 | 30.8 | 58.3 | -3.3 | 30% | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.8 | 29.8 | 60.6 | +1.0 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 23.0 | 39.0 | 62.0 | -16.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 31.6 | 31.2 | 62.9 | +0.4 | 44% | 12% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 34.5 | 26.9 | 61.4 | +7.5 | 73% | 18% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 29.9 | 33.2 | 63.1 | -3.3 | 37% | 17% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 32.2 | 31.4 | 63.5 | +0.8 | 46% | 23% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 28.2 | 34.6 | 62.8 | -6.4 | 29% | 12% |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.0 | 32.3 | 62.3 | -2.3 | 30% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.4 | 30.0 | 60.4 | +0.4 | 40% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (22) | 28.9 | 34.8 | 63.7 | -5.9 | 23% | 14% |
| vs Similar (6) | 32.2 | 30.5 | 62.7 | +1.7 | 67% | 33% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 28.0 | 27.0 | 55.0 | +1.0 | 100% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara +20 | 74.6% | 3.75 | 3.75 | - | - | - | - | +49.9pp | Lost |
| Niagara +21 | 77.4% | 3.35 | 3.35 | - | - | - | - | +49.7pp | Lost |
| Niagara +22 | 79.9% | 3.05 | 3.05 | - | - | - | - | +49.4pp | Lost |
| Niagara +21.5 | 78.0% | 3.12 | 3.15 | 3.10 | - | - | - | +48.4pp | Lost |
| Niagara +23 | 82.3% | 2.72 | 2.72 | - | - | - | - | +48.3pp | Lost |
| Niagara +24 | 84.4% | 2.55 | 2.55 | - | - | - | - | +47.9pp | Lost |
| Niagara +22.5 | 80.4% | 2.83 | 2.87 | 2.80 | - | - | - | +47.9pp | Lost |
| Niagara +20.5 | 75.3% | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.25 | - | - | - | +47.7pp | Lost |
| Niagara +23.5 | 82.7% | 2.62 | 2.65 | 2.60 | - | - | - | +47.4pp | Lost |
| Niagara +24.5 | 84.8% | 2.42 | 2.45 | 2.40 | - | - | - | +46.6pp | Lost |
| Niagara +25 | 86.4% | 2.30 | 2.30 | - | - | - | - | +46.1pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 80.5 | 72.1% | 2.69 | 2.85 | 2.52 | - | - | - | +37.9pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 82.5 | 78.5% | 2.26 | 2.40 | 2.12 | - | - | - | +37.8pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 81.5 | 75.4% | 2.42 | 2.55 | 2.30 | - | - | - | +37.4pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 85 | 85.9% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +35.9pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 85.5 | 86.2% | 1.78 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.72 | - | - | +34.9pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 84.5 | 83.9% | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | +33.9pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 84 | 83.5% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +33.5pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 83.5 | 81.3% | 1.93 | 2.02 | 1.91 | 1.86 | - | - | +32.8pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 87.5 | 90.2% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +30.0pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 86.5 | 88.3% | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +29.7pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 88.5 | 91.8% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +28.6pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 89.5 | 93.2% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +26.0pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 90.5 | 94.4% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +24.9pp | Lost |
| Niagara over 55.5 | 73.3% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +23.3pp | Lost |
| Niagara over 56 | 72.4% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +22.4pp | Lost |
| West Virginia under 91.5 | 95.4% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +22.1pp | Won |
| Under 145 | 70.5% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Under 150 | 80.2% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Under 146 | 72.6% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Under 145.5 | 71.1% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Won |
| Under 147 | 74.6% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| Under 146.5 | 73.1% | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Under 150.5 | 80.5% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Under 148.5 | 77.0% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Won |
| Under 147.5 | 75.1% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +7.7pp | Won |
| Under 152.5 | 83.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Under 148 | 76.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Under 149 | 78.4% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Under 149.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Under 151.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 90.0% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 94.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.8pp | Won |
| Under 156.5 | 88.9% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 93.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 96.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
| Under 166.5 | 96.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.8pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 95.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 91.9% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| Under 154.5 | 86.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +0.4pp | Won |
| Over 119.5 | 85.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -5.2pp | Won |
| Over 117.5 | 88.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -5.7pp | Won |
| West Virginia (regulation) | 85.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.5pp | Won |
| Over 121.5 | 82.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -8.2pp | Won |
| Niagara under 72.5 | 85.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.5pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 64.5 | 84.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.9pp | Won |
| Over 124.5 | 77.0% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -9.1pp | Won |
| Niagara under 71.5 | 82.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -9.4pp | Won |
| Over 122.5 | 80.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -9.6pp | Won |
| Niagara under 70.5 | 80.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -10.8pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 65.5 | 82.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -11.4pp | Won |
| Niagara under 69.5 | 77.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -12.9pp | Won |
| Over 126.5 | 73.1% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -13.0pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 66.5 | 79.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -13.2pp | Won |
| Niagara under 68.5 | 74.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -14.4pp | Won |
| Over 127.5 | 71.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -14.5pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 67.5 | 76.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -14.8pp | Won |
| Niagara under 67.5 | 71.4% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -16.9pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 68.5 | 73.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -17.7pp | Won |
| West Virginia over 69.5 | 70.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -20.1pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 | H | Brigham Young | 48-68 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UCF Knights | 77-62 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Kansas State | 63-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Brigham Young | 79-71 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Oklahoma State | 84-91 OT |
| 21/02/26 | A | TCU | 54-60 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Utah Utes | 56-61 |
| 14/02/26 | A | UCF Knights | 74-67 |
| 08/02/26 | H | Texas Tech | 63-70 |
| 06/02/26 | A | Cincinnati | 59-54 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | H | Merrimack Warriors | 66-73 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Quinnipiac | 78-76 OT |
| 22/02/26 | A | Rider | 62-67 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Mount St. Mary's | 63-76 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Iona | 70-68 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Manhattan | 69-76 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Quinnipiac | 55-56 |
| 03/02/26 | H | Canisius | 65-56 |
| 01/02/26 | H | Marist | 46-58 |
| 30/01/26 | H | Siena | 79-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 139.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 139.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 48 | 91 | |
| 30 | 16 | 46 |
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