Western Carolina hosts Lipscomb on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming the Tar Heels as the clear favourite at 86% to win, a figure driven by their 2-1 record, 97.0 points per game and 74.3 allowed, plus a dominant 136-point home outing. Western Carolina has won 2 of 3 games this season, scoring 97.0 and conceding 74.3, and is 137th in the league; at home they are 1-0, 136-point scorers, 68-point defenders. Their last five games include a 136-68 home win over Virginia-Lynchburg, an 83-75 away win over UNC Asheville and a 72-80 loss to North Carolina. Lipscomb, 2-2 this season, averages 74.8 points and allows 78.5, positioned 228th; on the road they are 0-2, 66.5 points scored and 81.0 allowed. Their last five games feature two home wins over Belmont and Siu Edwardsville and a 54-76 loss to Iowa. The teams have met once, with Lipscomb winning 83-62 in 2025. Pythia projects a 84-72 score, 155.7 total points, a -4.0 spread with a 78% chance of the home team covering, and a 45% chance of the over on 157.5, with a 3% overtime probability. The game will hinge on Western Carolina's ability to extend their early advantage.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Western Carolina winLost
85.6%fair 1.17
Best odds1.60
Implied61.4%
Edge+24.2pp
Lipscomb winWon
14.4%fair 6.95
Best odds2.50
Implied38.6%
Edge-24.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Western Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
57.3%
@ 1.68-2.7pp
Under 152.5
42.7%
@ 2.40+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.22
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
45.1%
@ 2.10-4.2pp
Under 157.5
54.9%
@ 1.88+4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
33.4%
@ 2.90-1.2pp
Under 162.5
66.6%
@ 1.47+1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.36
📊 3. Team Totals
Western Carolina total 75Actual: Western Carolina under 75
Over 75
82.3%
Under 75
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Western Carolina total 79 · main lineActual: Western Carolina under 79
Over 79
69.6%
@ 1.85+19.6pp
Under 79
30.4%
@ 1.85-19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Western Carolina total 83Actual: Western Carolina under 83
Over 83
53.8%
Under 83
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lipscomb total 72Actual: Lipscomb over 72
Over 72
48.5%
Under 72
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lipscomb total 76 · main lineActual: Lipscomb under 76
Over 76
32.8%
@ 1.85-17.5pp
Under 76
67.2%
@ 1.86+17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Lipscomb total 80Actual: Lipscomb under 80
Over 80
20.0%
Under 80
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Western Carolina -7Actual: Lipscomb +7
WEST -7
68.5%
@ 2.40+29.8pp
LIPS +7
31.5%
@ 1.52-29.8pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
2.40
LIPS
Bet365
1.52
Spread Western Carolina -4 · main lineActual: Lipscomb +4
WEST -4
78.1%
@ 1.97+29.3pp
LIPS +4
21.9%
@ 1.88-29.3pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
LIPS
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Spread Western Carolina -1Actual: Lipscomb +1
WEST -1
85.4%
@ 1.61+25.9pp
LIPS +1
14.6%
@ 2.36-25.9pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.58
LIPS
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Western CarolinaLipscomb
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Western Carolina -6
71.9%
2.29
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Lost
Western Carolina -5
75.1%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+30.9pp
Lost
Western Carolina -5.5
72.8%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Western Carolina -4.5
75.9%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+29.4pp
Lost
Western Carolina -4
78.1%
1.93
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
+29.3pp
Lost
Western Carolina (regulation)
83.8%
1.61
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.59
-
-
+27.6pp
Lost
Western Carolina -3.5
78.8%
1.86
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+27.3pp
Lost
Western Carolina -3
80.6%
1.79
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
+27.0pp
Lost
Western Carolina -1
85.4%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Western Carolina -1.5
83.9%
1.64
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
Western Carolina -2
83.5%
1.66
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
Western Carolina -2.5
81.1%
1.74
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
+25.4pp
Lost
Western Carolina +1
86.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Lost
Western Carolina win
85.6%
1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.55
+24.2pp
Lost
Western Carolina +1.5
87.0%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Western Carolina +2.5
89.0%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Western Carolina +2
88.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Western Carolina +3.5
90.3%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
Lipscomb under 77
70.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Western Carolina +3
90.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Western Carolina +4.5
91.7%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Western Carolina +5.5
92.9%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Lost
Lipscomb under 77.5
71.7%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Lipscomb under 78.5
74.9%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Western Carolina +4
91.5%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Lipscomb under 80.5
80.5%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Western Carolina +6.5
93.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Lipscomb under 79.5
77.8%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Western Carolina over 78.5
70.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 76.5
77.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 77.5
74.1%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 75.5
80.1%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 74.5
82.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Western Carolina +11.5
97.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Western Carolina over 72.5
87.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 70.5
91.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Western Carolina over 69.5
92.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Western Carolina +16.5
98.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Western Carolina over 68.5
93.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Western Carolina +21.5
99.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
70.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Western Carolina under 98.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Western Carolina under 96.5
89.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Lipscomb over 57.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Lipscomb over 59.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Western Carolina under 94.5
85.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Lipscomb +23.5
84.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Lipscomb over 61.5
84.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Western Carolina under 92.5
80.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Lipscomb over 63.5
79.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Western Carolina under 90.5
74.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Western Carolina under 89.5
71.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Lipscomb over 65.5
72.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Lipscomb +18.5
71.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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