Wichita State faces USC on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Wildcats at 89% because their season record of 1-0, 79.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed per game places them 126th in the league, while USC's 1-0 record, 95.0 points per game and 63.0 allowed per game ranks 49th; the Wildcats' single home win 79-67 on 4 November 2026 and a 4-1 record over the last five games contrast with USC's 1-4 record and a 95-63 home win on 2 November 2026. In their only meeting, Wichita State beat CS Northridge 79-67, and the projected score is 82-68 with a total of 149.7 points. The home line is -6.0 with a 78% chance of covering, and the over/under at 155.0 carries a 37% probability of the over, while the game has a 2% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wichita State winLost
89.5%fair 1.12
Best odds3.35
Implied28.7%
Edge+60.7pp
USC winWon
10.5%fair 9.49
Best odds1.36
Implied71.3%
Edge-60.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Wichita State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
47.7%
@ 1.47-16.5pp
Under 150.5
52.3%
@ 2.70+16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
35.7%
@ 1.92-13.7pp
Under 155.5
64.3%
@ 2.00+13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Over 160.5
Over 160.5
25.1%
@ 2.40-13.9pp
Under 160.5
74.9%
@ 1.54+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Wichita State total 76.5Actual: Wichita State over 76.5
Over 76.5
71.3%
@ 1.36+3.3pp
Under 76.5
28.7%
@ 3.05-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.70
Wichita State total 80.5 · main lineActual: Wichita State over 80.5
Over 80.5
56.2%
@ 1.89+6.2pp
Under 80.5
43.8%
@ 1.95-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.84
Wichita State total 84.5Actual: Wichita State over 84.5
Over 84.5
40.2%
@ 2.50+1.9pp
Under 84.5
59.8%
@ 1.52-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
Under
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
USC total 77Actual: USC over 77
Over 77
16.9%
Under 77
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
USC total 81 · main lineActual: USC over 81
Over 81
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 81
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
USC total 84.5Actual: USC over 84.5
Over 84.5
no forecast
@ 5.25
Under 84.5
no forecast
@ 1.14
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Wichita State -9.5Actual: USC +9.5
WICH -9.5
66.8%
@ 1.55+6.9pp
USC +9.5
33.2%
@ 2.35-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
USC
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Spread Wichita State -6.5 · main lineActual: USC +6.5
WICH -6.5
76.1%
@ 1.94+26.5pp
USC +6.5
23.9%
@ 1.92-26.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
USC
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
Spread Wichita State -3.5Actual: USC +3.5
WICH -3.5
83.9%
@ 2.35+44.2pp
USC +3.5
16.1%
@ 1.54-44.2pp
Best 5 market prices
WICH
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
USC
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Wichita StateUSC
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Wichita StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Florida
#40
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H12/02
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H15/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A19/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A27/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A02/03
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H14/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/03
NCAA
CS Northridge
#342
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H05/11
NCAA
71.2Avg total
37.4Scored
33.8Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74
Last 30 (30)
35.6
33.0
68.6
+2.7
63%
30%
Last 30 at home (18)
36.6
32.1
68.7
+4.5
67%
33%
Last 30 away (12)
34.2
34.2
68.4
-0.1
58%
25%
Last 10 (10)
37.4
33.8
71.2
+3.6
80%
40%
Last 5 (5)
39.2
35.2
74.4
+4.0
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)
34.3
35.0
69.3
-0.7
43%
29%
vs Similar (6)
33.2
37.0
70.2
-3.8
50%
33%
vs Weaker (17)
37.1
30.7
67.8
+6.4
76%
29%
This opponent (USC) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wichita State +14.5
98.9%
10.00
Bet365
10.00
-
-
-
-
+89.6pp
Won
Wichita State +13.5
98.7%
10.00
Bet365
10.00
-
-
-
-
+89.4pp
Won
Wichita State +9.5
97.4%
7.50
Bet365
7.50
-
-
-
-
+84.9pp
Won
Wichita State +8.5
96.9%
7.25
Bet365
7.25
-
-
-
-
+84.1pp
Won
Wichita State +4.5
94.1%
4.40
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
-
+72.9pp
Lost
Wichita State +3.5
93.0%
4.20
Bet365
4.20
-
-
-
-
+70.8pp
Lost
Wichita State +2.5
92.0%
3.50
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.40
-
-
-
+65.6pp
Lost
Wichita State +2
91.9%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+65.0pp
Lost
Wichita State +1.5
90.6%
3.38
Bet365
3.55
Betano
3.20
-
-
-
+63.0pp
Lost
Wichita State +1
90.4%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+62.8pp
Lost
USC +21.5
73.8%
7.50
Bet365
7.50
-
-
-
-
+61.3pp
Won
Wichita State win
89.5%
3.13
Pinnacle
3.35
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.22
Betano
3.15
BetVictor
3.15
+60.7pp
Lost
Wichita State (regulation)
88.0%
3.20
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Marathon Bet
3.12
-
-
+59.4pp
Lost
Wichita State -1
89.3%
3.05
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
-
+58.6pp
Lost
USC +20.5
70.9%
7.00
Bet365
7.00
-
-
-
-
+57.5pp
Won
Wichita State -1.5
88.1%
2.75
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.70
-
-
-
+54.5pp
Lost
Wichita State -2
87.8%
2.72
Bet365
2.72
-
-
-
-
+53.9pp
Lost
Wichita State -2.5
85.8%
2.55
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
+49.6pp
Lost
Wichita State -3
85.6%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+48.1pp
Lost
Wichita State -3.5
83.9%
2.33
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
+44.2pp
Lost
Wichita State -4
83.5%
2.29
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+42.5pp
Lost
Wichita State -4.5
81.5%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Wichita State -5
81.0%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Lost
Wichita State -5.5
78.9%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
+34.0pp
Lost
Wichita State -6
78.3%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
1.96
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+31.3pp
Lost
USC under 75
77.7%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Wichita State over 75
77.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
Wichita State -6.5
76.1%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+26.5pp
Lost
USC under 75.5
78.3%
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
+24.1pp
Lost
USC under 74.5
75.4%
1.87
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+23.9pp
Lost
USC under 76.5
81.0%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
USC under 73.5
72.2%
1.98
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.93
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Lost
Wichita State -7
75.4%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.74
-
+23.4pp
Lost
USC under 77.5
83.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
USC under 78.5
85.7%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Wichita State -7.5
73.2%
1.75
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
+19.0pp
Lost
Wichita State -8
72.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Under 159
72.4%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Under 158
70.2%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.75
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.67
-
+15.9pp
Lost
Under 158.5
70.9%
1.70
1xBet
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
+15.7pp
Lost
Under 160
74.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Wichita State over 74.5
77.7%
1.54
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
72.9%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Under 162
78.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Lost
Under 160.5
74.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Under 161
76.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Lost
Under 163
80.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Under 161.5
76.8%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Under 163.5
80.3%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Lost
Under 162.5
78.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
Under 164
81.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Lost
Wichita State -8.5
70.1%
1.65
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Under 164.5
82.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Lost
Under 166.5
85.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Under 171.5
90.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.7%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.2pp
-
Under 176.5
94.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Under 181.5
97.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Wichita State over 75.5
74.6%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Wichita State under 100.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Wichita State under 98.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Wichita State under 101.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Wichita State under 96.5
92.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Wichita State over 76.5
71.3%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Wichita State under 94.5
89.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Wichita State under 91.5
83.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Wichita State under 92.5
85.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Wichita State under 88.5
74.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Wichita State under 90.5
80.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Wichita State under 87.5
71.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
86.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
USC over 56.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
USC over 57.5
84.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
USC over 58.5
81.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Over 136.5
79.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
USC over 59.5
78.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
USC over 60.5
75.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
USC over 61.5
72.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.4pp
Won
Wichita State +19.5
99.5%
16.00
Bet365
16.00
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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