PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Wyoming hosts Sam Houston St. in the NCAA on 17 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Wyoming as the favourite at 85% versus 15% for Sam Houston St.; the model's confidence stems from Wyoming's 2-1 record, 83.7 points per game and 62.0 allowed per game, ranking 135th, compared with Sam Houston St.'s 2-1 record, 87.0 points per game and 77.3 allowed per game, ranking 168th. Wyoming's home form is flawless, 2-0 with 94.0 points per game and 55.0 allowed per game, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 93-62 victory over Idaho State and a 95-48 win over Regis University, while Sam Houston St. has won three of five away games, including a 102-59 win over Howard Payne, but suffered a 74-96 loss to Alabama. The teams have met once before, with Sam Houston St. winning 78-70 on 19 November 2025. Pythia projects a 83-71 score for Wyoming, a total of 154.3 points, and a 3% chance of overtime; the home team's line is 0-point and the model sees a 0-point cover probability of 85%. Wyoming's recent home dominance and higher defensive rating suggest they will control the game, with the final score likely reflecting the projected 83-71 outcome.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.7 | 62.0 | 145.7 | +21.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 94.0 | 55.0 | 149.0 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 63.0 | 76.0 | 139.0 | -13.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.2 | 69.1 | 147.3 | +9.1 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.8 | 67.4 | 149.2 | +14.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 67.7 | 85.7 | 153.3 | -18.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 72.1 | 73.6 | 145.7 | -1.4 | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 83.3 | 68.3 | 151.6 | +15.0 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 87.0 | 77.3 | 164.3 | +9.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.5 | 68.0 | 161.5 | +25.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 74.0 | 96.0 | 170.0 | -22.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.3 | 76.0 | 158.3 | +6.3 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.6 | 74.4 | 155.0 | +6.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 79.5 | 86.5 | 166.0 | -7.0 | 50% |
| vs Similar (10) | 80.9 | 76.8 | 157.7 | +4.1 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (18) | 82.7 | 71.7 | 154.4 | +11.0 | 72% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.1 | 32.6 | 67.7 | +2.5 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.6 | 30.9 | 67.4 | +5.7 | 69% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.5 | 34.6 | 68.1 | -1.1 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 31.1 | 69.0 | +6.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.0 | 31.6 | 70.6 | +7.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 31.3 | 41.0 | 72.3 | -9.7 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 33.1 | 33.3 | 66.4 | -0.2 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 38.8 | 29.5 | 68.3 | +9.3 | 90% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.4 | 33.2 | 72.6 | +6.2 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.3 | 29.8 | 71.1 | +11.5 | 93% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.5 | 36.7 | 74.2 | +0.9 | 53% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.0 | 32.0 | 71.0 | +7.0 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 31.0 | 70.4 | +8.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 35.0 | 37.5 | 72.5 | -2.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 36.8 | 34.4 | 71.2 | +2.4 | 70% | - |
| vs Weaker (18) | 41.3 | 32.1 | 73.4 | +9.2 | 78% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 20/11/25 | Sam Houston St. v Wyoming | 78-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | North Carolina | 63-76 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Idaho State | 93-62 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Regis University | 95-48 |
| 11/03/26 | A | UNLV | 70-73 |
| 07/03/26 | A | San Jose State | 88-78 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Nevada | 83-73 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Air Force | 66-62 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Boise State | 62-72 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Grand Canyon | 70-65 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Fresno State | 92-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Pepperdine | 85-77 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Howard Payne | 102-59 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Alabama | 74-96 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Kennesaw State | 73-79 |
| 12/03/26 | H | New Mexico State | 69-61 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Liberty | 72-79 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Delaware | 80-83 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Missouri State | 86-81 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Florida International | 100-67 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Jacksonville State | 82-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 83.7 | 94.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 62.0 | 55.0 | 76.0 |
| Point differential | +21.7 | +39.0 | -13.0 |
| Avg total | 145.7 | 149.0 | 139.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 87.0 | 93.5 | 74.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.3 | 68.0 | 96.0 |
| Point differential | +9.7 | +25.5 | -22.0 |
| Avg total | 164.3 | 161.5 | 170.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boise State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 114.3 | 71.0 | +43.3 |
| 2 |  Utah State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  New Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  Grand Canyon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.3 | 77.0 | +23.3 |
| 5 |  San Diego State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 |
| 6 |  Colorado State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.7 | +12.3 |
| 7 |  UNLV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Air Force | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 93.5 | 83.8 | +9.8 |
| 9 | Wyoming | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 |
| 10 |  Nevada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 73.3 | +8.3 |
| 11 |  Fresno State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  San Jose State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 87.0 | 82.5 | +4.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Florida International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 66.5 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  Kennesaw State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 68.3 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Louisiana Tech | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 70.3 | 60.7 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Sam Houston St. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 87.0 | 77.3 | +9.7 |
| 7 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.3 | 76.7 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Liberty | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 63.0 | +22.0 |
| 9 |  UTEP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 77.5 | 72.0 | +5.5 |
| 10 |  New Mexico State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 70.5 | 87.5 | -17.0 |
| 11 |  Delaware | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.7 | 62.7 | +14.0 |
| 12 |  Jacksonville State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 78.0 | +5.0 |
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