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North Carolina vs Wyoming Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 85-70
Projected total 155.6
Final 76-63
31-29 45-34
Position#113
Record2-0
FormLLLWW
Points / game94.5
Allowed / game71.0
North Carolina 🏆
USA
Vs
91%
■ NORT 91%■ WYOM 9%
Pythia win probability
Wyoming
USA
Position#94
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game94.0
Allowed / game55.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

North Carolina hosts Wyoming on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming the Tar Heels the clear favourite at 91% because their season record of 2-0, 94.5 points per game and 71.0 allowed per game places them at 67th in the league, while Wyoming sits at 18th with 94.0 points per game and 55.0 allowed per game, also undefeated. North Carolina has won both of its games, 109-70 over Wofford and 80-72 over Western Carolina, and has a 2-3 record in its last five games, whereas Wyoming has a 4-1 record in its last five, including wins over Idaho State and Regis University but a loss to UNLV. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 85-70 score, 155.6 total points, with a 51% chance the home team covers the -15.0 line and a 54% chance the over on the 154.0 line, and a 2% probability of overtime. The Tar Heels' strong defensive numbers and recent home wins set the tone for this matchup.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
90.7%fair 1.10
Best odds1.08
Implied88.0%
Edge+2.7pp
Wyoming winLost
9.3%fair 10.71
Best odds9.00
Implied12.0%
Edge-2.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
L
58-82
58
82
-24
A18/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A21/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
89-82
89
82
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-63
67
63
+4
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
78-82 OT
78
82
-4
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#140
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#246
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-42
32-40
33-28
44-36
39-38
38-36
44-44
45-38
27-30
40-33
34-39
27-37
31-39
48-41
39-28
36-47
39-30
41-42
51-34
58-36
152.0Avg total
77.5Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)94.571.0165.5+23.5100%
Season at home (2)94.571.0165.5+23.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.574.5152.0+3.060%
Last 5 (5)81.476.0157.4+5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)70.772.0142.7-1.367%
vs Similar (13)72.675.6148.2-3.046%
vs Weaker (14)87.470.8158.2+16.693%
This opponent (Wyoming) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WyomingUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Colorado State
#90
L
68-79
68
79
-11
A14/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
92-82
92
82
+10
H18/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
62-72
62
72
-10
A25/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
66-62
66
62
+4
H28/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
83-73
83
73
+10
H04/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
88-78
88
78
+10
A07/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
70-73
70
73
-3
A11/03
NCAA
Regis University
#477
W
95-48
95
48
+47
H04/11
NCAA
Idaho State
#391
W
93-62
93
62
+31
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-37
28-42
42-40
50-42
28-28
42-37
30-32
32-40
35-25
31-37
49-28
34-45
49-36
39-42
31-44
39-29
42-27
53-21
44-20
49-42
148.1Avg total
78.7Scored
69.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)94.055.0149.0+39.0100%
Season at home (2)94.055.0149.0+39.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.769.4148.1+9.370%
Last 5 (5)85.866.8152.6+19.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)67.785.7153.3-18.00%
vs Similar (16)72.673.7146.2-1.138%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)83.368.3151.6+15.090%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
66.0%
Under 149
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Under 154
Over 154
53.8%
@ 1.86+3.8pp
Under 154
46.2%
@ 1.86-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
41.3%
Under 159
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

North Carolina total 80.5Actual: North Carolina under 80.5
Over 80.5
69.1%
@ 1.40+4.6pp
Under 80.5
30.9%
@ 2.55-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
North Carolina total 84.5 · main lineActual: North Carolina under 84.5
Over 84.5
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.8pp
Under 84.5
46.2%
@ 1.85-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
North Carolina total 88.5Actual: North Carolina under 88.5
Over 88.5
37.8%
@ 2.55+2.3pp
Under 88.5
62.2%
@ 1.40-2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Wyoming total 65.5Actual: Wyoming under 65.5
Over 65.5
67.7%
@ 1.39+2.5pp
Under 65.5
32.3%
@ 2.60-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Wyoming total 69.5 · main lineActual: Wyoming under 69.5
Over 69.5
52.3%
@ 1.87+2.4pp
Under 69.5
47.7%
@ 1.85-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Wyoming total 73.5Actual: Wyoming under 73.5
Over 73.5
36.7%
@ 2.60+1.9pp
Under 73.5
63.3%
@ 1.39-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread North Carolina -18Actual: Wyoming +18
NORT -18
39.6%
WYOM +18
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
WYOM
No market prices yet.
Spread North Carolina -15 · main lineActual: Wyoming +15
NORT -15
50.6%
@ 1.86+0.7pp
WYOM +15
49.4%
@ 1.85-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NORT
Marathon Be
1.86
WYOM
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread North Carolina -12Actual: North Carolina -12
NORT -12
61.6%
WYOM +12
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
NORT
No market prices yet.
WYOM
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: +7.3+7.32nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +2.0+2.0
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: +7.3+7.32nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +2.0+2.0
North CarolinaWyoming
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NC State
#128
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
33-28
33
28
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H24/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H01/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H04/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A07/03
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H13/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H19/03
NCAA
Western Carolina
#140
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H03/11
NCAA
Wofford
#246
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H07/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
36.3Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)38.735.874.5+2.960%50%
Last 30 at home (18)40.333.874.1+6.478%50%
Last 30 away (12)36.238.875.0-2.533%50%
Last 10 (10)36.335.271.5+1.150%30%
Last 5 (5)38.834.072.8+4.860%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)34.036.770.7-2.733%0%
vs Similar (13)34.137.071.1-2.931%38%
vs Weaker (14)43.934.578.4+9.493%71%
This opponent (Wyoming) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
WyomingLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Colorado State
#90
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H18/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A22/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A25/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
35-25
35
25
+10
H28/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
49-28
49
28
+21
H04/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A07/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A11/03
NCAA
Regis University
#477
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/11
NCAA
Idaho State
#391
W
44-20
44
20
+24
H07/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
39.0Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74
Last 30 (30)35.232.868.0+2.457%33%
Last 30 at home (16)36.630.967.4+5.769%25%
Last 30 away (14)33.735.068.7-1.343%43%
Last 10 (10)39.031.770.7+7.370%50%
Last 5 (5)43.031.074.0+12.080%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.341.072.3-9.70%33%
vs Similar (16)33.333.767.0-0.444%31%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)38.829.568.3+9.390%40%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: North Carolina win
NORT win
no forecast
@ 1.16
WYOM win
no forecast
@ 5.40
1st half Spread North Carolina -8.5 · main lineActual: Wyoming +8.5
NORT -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
WYOM +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 74 · main lineActual: Under 74
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
North Carolina 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: North Carolina under 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Wyoming 1st half total 32.5 · main lineActual: Wyoming under 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.67
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread North Carolina -9.5Actual: Wyoming +9.5
NORT -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
WYOM +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread North Carolina -7.5Actual: Wyoming +7.5
NORT -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
WYOM +7.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Spread North Carolina -10.5Actual: Wyoming +10.5
NORT -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
WYOM +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread North Carolina -6.5Actual: Wyoming +6.5
NORT -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
WYOM +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread North Carolina -11.5Actual: Wyoming +11.5
NORT -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
WYOM +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread North Carolina -5.5Actual: Wyoming +5.5
NORT -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
WYOM +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: North Carolina (regulation)
NORT
no forecast
@ 1.18
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
WYOM
no forecast
@ 5.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NORT win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
WYOM win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NORT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
North Carolina (regulation)89.3%1.08
Betano
1.09
Marathon Bet
1.07		---+5.9ppWon
North Carolina over 79.572.6%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+4.6ppLost
Over 146.571.1%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+3.4ppLost
North Carolina -7.575.5%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+3.0ppWon
North Carolina -8.572.6%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+2.8ppWon
North Carolina win90.7%1.07
Betano
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
WilliamHill
1.05		-+2.7ppWon
Wyoming over 64.571.2%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+2.7ppLost
Wyoming +22.574.3%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+2.2ppWon
Wyoming +21.571.4%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+1.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
North Carolina wins
0
Wyoming wins
No previous meetings.
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HWofford109-70
03/11/26HWestern Carolina80-72
19/03/26HVCU Rams78-82 OT
13/03/26HClemson79-80
07/03/26ADuke61-76
04/03/26HClemson67-63
01/03/26HVirginia Tech89-82
24/02/26HLouisville77-74
21/02/26ASyracuse77-64
18/02/26ANC State58-82
Wyominglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HIdaho State93-62
04/11/26HRegis University95-48
11/03/26AUNLV70-73
07/03/26ASan Jose State88-78
04/03/26HNevada83-73
28/02/26HAir Force66-62
25/02/26ABoise State62-72
22/02/26AGrand Canyon70-65
18/02/26HFresno State92-82
14/02/26AColorado State68-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game94.594.5-
Allowed / game71.071.0-
Point differential+23.5+23.5-
Avg total165.5165.5-
Over 15450%50%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Wyoming
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game94.094.0-
Allowed / game55.055.0-
Point differential+39.0+39.0-
Avg total149.0149.0-
Over 15450%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke220100%98.551.0+47.5
2 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
3 Virginia Tech220100%92.060.5+31.5
4 Virginia330100%92.368.0+24.3
5 North Carolina220100%94.571.0+23.5
6 Boston College220100%73.552.5+21.0
7 Pittsburgh330100%85.764.7+21.0
8 California330100%95.074.7+20.3
9 SMU Mustangs220100%90.071.0+19.0
10 Notre Dame330100%83.766.0+17.7
11 NC State220100%80.063.5+16.5
12 Georgia Tech220100%85.069.0+16.0
13 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
14 Clemson330100%86.374.0+12.3
15 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
16 Miami (FL)32167%79.761.7+18.0
17 Wake Forest21150%67.068.0-1.0
18 Florida State31233%77.387.0-9.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State220100%116.067.0+49.0
2 Wyoming220100%94.055.0+39.0
3 Utah State220100%92.057.0+35.0
4 New Mexico220100%97.062.5+34.5
5 Grand Canyon220100%101.080.0+21.0
6 Nevada220100%91.072.0+19.0
7 San Diego State220100%89.572.0+17.5
8 Colorado State220100%81.070.5+10.5
9 UNLV220100%88.578.0+10.5
10 Air Force32167%89.080.7+8.3
11 San Jose State21150%87.082.5+4.5
12 Fresno State21150%76.580.0-3.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina314576
Wyoming293463
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