Abilene Christian hosts Lamar on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Abilene Christian at 72% to 28% for Lamar, projecting a 75-68 win and a total of 143.1 points; the home line is -2.5 with a 65% chance of covering, and the over/under 142.5 has a 51% chance of going over, with a 5% overtime probability. Abilene Christian is 0-1 this season, averaging 59.0 points and allowing 94.0, positioned 390th, and has gone 1-4 in its last five games, losing to Colorado 59-94, Utah Tech 74-80, and beating Tarleton 84-78; Lamar is 1-0, averaging 124.0 points and allowing 62.0, positioned 4th, and also 1-4 in its last five, beating Schreiner 124-62, but losing to Houston Christian 53-75 and Incarnate Word 60-72. In the seven meetings between the two, Abilene Christian has won every encounter, most recently defeating Lamar 77-42 on 24 February 2022.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Abilene Christian winWon
71.7%fair 1.39
Best odds2.05
Implied47.3%
Edge+24.4pp
Lamar winLost
28.3%fair 3.54
Best odds2.11
Implied52.7%
Edge-24.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137.5Actual: Over 137.5
Over 137.5
63.0%
Under 137.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 142.5 · main lineActual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
51.0%
@ 1.85-0.4pp
Under 142.5
49.0%
@ 1.95+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.75
Under
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
39.0%
@ 1.91-10.2pp
Under 147.5
61.0%
@ 1.87+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.80
📊 3. Team Totals
Abilene Christian total 70.5Actual: Abilene Christian over 70.5
Over 70.5
no forecast
@ 1.07
Under 70.5
no forecast
@ 7.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.07
Under
Bet365
7.50
Abilene Christian total 74.5 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian over 74.5
Over 74.5
51.3%
@ 1.91+1.3pp
Under 74.5
48.7%
@ 4.40-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.40
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Abilene Christian total 78.5Actual: Abilene Christian over 78.5
Over 78.5
35.7%
@ 1.85-14.3pp
Under 78.5
64.3%
@ 1.85+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Lamar total 66.5Actual: Lamar over 66.5
Over 66.5
56.6%
@ 1.02-34.9pp
Under 66.5
43.4%
@ 11.00+34.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.02
Under
Bet365
11.00
Lamar total 70.5 · main lineActual: Lamar over 70.5
Over 70.5
41.2%
@ 1.91-8.8pp
Under 70.5
58.8%
@ 8.00+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.06
Under
Bet365
8.00
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Lamar total 74.5Actual: Lamar over 74.5
Over 74.5
27.2%
@ 1.15-53.3pp
Under 74.5
72.8%
@ 4.75+53.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.75
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Abilene Christian -1.5Actual: Abilene Christian -1.5
ABIL -1.5
69.2%
@ 2.20+25.6pp
LAMA +1.5
30.8%
@ 2.05-25.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
BetVictor
1.80
LAMA
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Spread Abilene Christian +1.5 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian +1.5
ABIL +1.5
74.0%
@ 1.95+24.6pp
LAMA -1.5
26.0%
@ 2.50-24.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
LAMA
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Abilene Christian +4.5Actual: Abilene Christian +4.5
ABIL +4.5
82.1%
@ 1.33+11.4pp
LAMA -4.5
17.9%
@ 3.20-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
Bet365
1.33
LAMA
Bet365
3.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Abilene ChristianLamar
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Lamar win
ABIL win
no forecast
@ 1.98
LAMA win
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Abilene Christian +1.5 · main lineActual: Lamar -1.5
ABIL +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
LAMA -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main lineActual: Over 85.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Abilene Christian 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
Lamar 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Lamar over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Over 87.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Abilene Christian -1.5Actual: Lamar +1.5
ABIL -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
LAMA +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Abilene Christian (regulation)
ABIL
no forecast
@ 2.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
LAMA
no forecast
@ 1.88
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Lamar under 75.5
75.9%
4.40
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
-
+54.7pp
Lost
Lamar under 74.5
72.8%
4.75
Bet365
4.75
-
-
-
-
+53.3pp
Lost
Under 163
88.9%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
-
+44.1pp
Lost
Under 160
85.2%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+44.1pp
Lost
Under 163.5
89.1%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.07
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
+43.1pp
Lost
Under 164
90.0%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+43.0pp
Push
Under 164.5
90.1%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+41.9pp
Won
Under 165
91.0%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.71
-
+41.6pp
Won
Under 161
86.6%
1.98
Bet365
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
Under 162
87.8%
1.90
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.76
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Lost
Under 165.5
91.1%
1.82
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+40.4pp
Won
Under 162.5
87.9%
1.93
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.98
1xBet
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.80
+40.2pp
Lost
Under 166
91.9%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.64
-
+40.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
86.7%
1.96
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.03
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.80
-
+40.0pp
Lost
Under 167.5
92.8%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.54
+40.0pp
Won
Under 160.5
85.4%
2.03
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
+39.9pp
Lost
Under 159
83.8%
2.05
Bet365
2.40
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
-
-
+39.4pp
Lost
Under 168
93.5%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.50
-
+39.4pp
Won
Under 156
79.0%
2.42
Bet365
3.00
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+39.0pp
Lost
Under 166.5
92.0%
1.83
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+38.9pp
Won
Under 157
80.7%
2.31
Bet365
2.75
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Lost
Under 167
92.7%
1.72
SBO
1.82
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.57
-
+38.4pp
Won
Under 158
82.3%
2.19
Bet365
2.60
Marathon Bet
1.78
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
Under 168.5
93.5%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+38.3pp
Won
Under 153.5
73.9%
2.81
Bet365
3.70
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
-
+38.0pp
Lost
Under 169
94.2%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.45
-
-
+37.7pp
Won
Under 158.5
82.6%
2.11
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.74
-
-
+37.0pp
Lost
Under 159.5
84.0%
1.99
Bet365
2.35
1xBet
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Under 157.5
81.0%
2.19
Bet365
2.70
1xBet
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
+35.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian under 84
82.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+32.7pp
Won
Under 156.5
79.4%
2.52
Bet365
3.70
1xBet
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
Under 155.5
77.6%
2.34
Bet365
3.10
1xBet
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
+32.1pp
Lost
Lamar under 77.5
81.3%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.82
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Lost
Under 155
77.2%
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Lost
Lamar under 77
80.8%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+30.0pp
Lost
Abilene Christian under 83
80.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+30.0pp
Push
Lamar under 76
78.1%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Lost
Abilene Christian under 83.5
80.6%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
+28.6pp
Won
Under 154.5
75.8%
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Under 170
94.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
94.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 84.5
83.2%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
-
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Won
Under 154
75.3%
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
-
-
-
+28.0pp
Lost
Under 170.5
94.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+27.3pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 82
77.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Abilene Christian under 82.5
77.7%
1.85
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+26.7pp
Lost
Under 171
95.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 81.5
74.7%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+26.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian under 80.5
71.4%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Abilene Christian -1
71.0%
1.87
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Abilene Christian +1
73.4%
1.86
Pinnacle
2.00
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.54
-
+25.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
95.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Lamar under 75
75.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +2
76.5%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.47
-
+24.7pp
Won
Abilene Christian +1.5
74.0%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
+24.6pp
Won
Abilene Christian win
71.7%
1.98
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathon Bet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
+24.4pp
Won
Under 153
73.4%
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.74
-
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Under 152.5
71.9%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +2.5
77.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.75
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.44
-
+23.1pp
Won
Under 176.5
97.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Abilene Christian +3
79.1%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
96.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Abilene Christian +3.5
79.6%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
Under 152
71.3%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Lost
Under 178.5
98.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 93.5
96.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Abilene Christian +5
84.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Abilene Christian +4
81.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Abilene Christian +4.5
82.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Abilene Christian +5.5
84.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Abilene Christian +6.5
86.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Abilene Christian +11.5
93.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Abilene Christian +16.5
97.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Abilene Christian +21.5
98.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 103.5
99.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.5%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9pp
-
Lamar +23.5
92.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Lamar +18.5
85.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Lamar +13.5
73.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Lamar over 61.5
74.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-19.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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