Al Gharafa will host Al Arabi on 10 November 2026 in the QBL, and the Pythia model rates Al Arabi as the clear favourite, with a 91% chance of victory, driven by their 4-1 season record, 94.6 points per game and only 81.0 allowed, and a perfect 2-0 road record; Al Gharafa, meanwhile, sits 4th with a 3-2 record, 81.2 points scored and 83.4 allowed, and a 1-1 home record that has seen them beat Al Khor 97-89 away, lose to Qatar Sports 84-97 at home and beat Al Wakrah 77-69 at home. In their last ten meetings Al Arabi have won seven to Al Gharafa's three, most recently defeating them 117-97 on 24 January 2026. Pythia projects a final score of 81-97, with a total of 177.7 points, and a 77% probability that Al Arabi will cover the 23.5-point spread; the over on the 174.5-point total has a 57% chance, and there is a 2% chance of overtime. Al Arabi's strong road performance and higher scoring average give them the edge in this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 81.2 | 83.4 | 164.6 | -2.2 | 60% |
| Season at home (2) | 80.5 | 83.0 | 163.5 | -2.5 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 81.7 | 83.7 | 165.3 | -2.0 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 92.8 | 93.4 | 186.2 | -0.6 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 83.4 | 164.6 | -2.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 85.6 | 96.8 | 182.4 | -11.3 | 11% |
| vs Similar (2) | 80.5 | 83.0 | 163.5 | -2.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 93.9 | 86.1 | 180.0 | +7.8 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 94.6 | 81.0 | 175.6 | +13.6 | 80% |
| Season at home (3) | 96.3 | 90.0 | 186.3 | +6.3 | 67% |
| Season away (2) | 92.0 | 67.5 | 159.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 93.3 | 81.5 | 174.8 | +11.8 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 94.6 | 81.0 | 175.6 | +13.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 86.5 | 82.0 | 168.5 | +4.5 | 100% |
| vs Similar (5) | 84.0 | 79.8 | 163.8 | +4.2 | 80% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 96.5 | 82.5 | 179.0 | +14.0 | 87% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 85.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.2 | 44.0 | 87.2 | -0.8 | 43% | 50% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 43.2 | 46.4 | 89.6 | -3.1 | 36% | 57% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 43.2 | 42.0 | 85.2 | +1.2 | 50% | 44% |
| Last 10 (10) | 46.3 | 44.5 | 90.8 | +1.8 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.2 | 39.4 | 79.6 | +0.8 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 42.0 | 45.4 | 87.4 | -3.4 | 33% | 50% |
| vs Similar (2) | 36.0 | 41.0 | 77.0 | -5.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 46.8 | 42.2 | 89.0 | +4.6 | 70% | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 85.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 47.6 | 39.2 | 86.8 | +8.4 | 83% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 47.9 | 38.5 | 86.4 | +9.3 | 87% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 47.3 | 39.9 | 87.3 | +7.4 | 80% | 53% |
| Last 10 (10) | 48.1 | 38.3 | 86.4 | +9.8 | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 48.2 | 36.4 | 84.6 | +11.8 | 100% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 48.5 | 38.5 | 87.0 | +10.0 | 100% | 100% |
| vs Similar (5) | 42.6 | 39.0 | 81.6 | +3.6 | 80% | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 48.6 | 39.3 | 88.0 | +9.3 | 83% | 52% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gharafa +21 | 70.3% | 2.21 | 2.21 | - | - | - | - | +28.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +22 | 73.4% | 2.06 | 2.06 | - | - | - | - | +28.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +21.5 | 71.2% | 2.16 | 2.18 | 2.14 | - | - | - | +27.9pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 73.5 | 79.5% | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.56 | - | - | - | +27.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +23 | 76.2% | 1.91 | 1.91 | - | - | - | - | +27.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +22.5 | 74.1% | 1.99 | 2.00 | 1.98 | - | - | - | +27.2pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 76 | 72.4% | 1.87 | 1.87 | - | - | - | - | +26.1pp | Push |
| Al Gharafa +23.5 | 76.9% | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.83 | +25.8pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 75 | 75.7% | 1.72 | 1.72 | - | - | - | - | +25.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +24 | 78.9% | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.75 | - | - | - | +25.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 74.5 | 76.5% | 1.66 | 1.66 | - | - | - | - | +24.6pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +25 | 81.3% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +24.2pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +24.5 | 79.4% | 1.73 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.68 | - | - | +24.1pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 72.5 | 82.2% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +23.6pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +26 | 83.5% | 1.54 | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | +23.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 75.5 | 73.3% | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.78 | - | - | +23.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +25.5 | 81.7% | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.58 | - | - | - | +23.1pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 71.5 | 84.7% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +22.4pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 70.5 | 86.9% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +21.4pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 69.5 | 88.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +20.2pp | Won |
| Al Arabi win | 90.7% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.01 | +1.4pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.8 | 24.2 | 52.2% | 48.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.6 | 10.6 | 31.0% | 31.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.7 | 11.3 | 67.4% | 11.3 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 39.9 | 23.2 | 52.2% | 46.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 32.4 | 12.3 | 31.0% | 36.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.9 | 14.0 | 67.4% | 14.0 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 | Al Gharafa v Al Arabi | 97-117 |
| 08/11/25 | Al Arabi v Al Gharafa | 95-84 |
| 06/03/25 | Al Gharafa v Al Arabi | 71-97 |
| 29/12/24 | Al Arabi v Al Gharafa | 83-90 |
| 20/01/24 | Al Gharafa v Al Arabi | 62-83 |
| 03/12/23 | Al Arabi v Al Gharafa | 66-55 |
| 17/04/23 | Al Gharafa v Al Arabi | 88-70 |
| 07/04/23 | Al Arabi v Al Gharafa | 94-90 |
| 03/02/22 | Al Arabi v Al Gharafa | 82-71 |
| 07/12/21 | Al Gharafa v Al Arabi | 82-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | A | Al Khor | 97-89 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Qatar Sports | 84-97 OT |
| 26/10/26 | H | Al Wakrah | 77-69 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Al Shamal | 72-94 |
| 13/10/26 | A | Al Ahli | 76-68 |
| 24/01/26 | H | Al Arabi | 97-117 |
| 21/01/26 | A | Al Khor | 122-119 |
| 12/01/26 | H | Al Ahli | 100-109 |
| 08/01/26 | H | Qatar Sports | 103-99 |
| 05/01/26 | A | Al Shamal | 100-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLW | 60% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | WLW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Points / game | 81.2 | 80.5 | 81.7 |
| Allowed / game | 83.4 | 83.0 | 83.7 |
| Point differential | -2.2 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 164.6 | 163.5 | 165.3 |
| Over 174.5 | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWWW | 80% |
| Home | LWW | 67% |
| Away | WW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 80% | 67% | 100% |
| Points / game | 94.6 | 96.3 | 92.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.0 | 90.0 | 67.5 |
| Point differential | +13.6 | +6.3 | +24.5 |
| Avg total | 175.6 | 186.3 | 159.5 |
| Over 174.5 | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 60% | 33% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 94.6 | 81.0 | +13.6 | |
| 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 71.5 | +16.0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 85.0 | 80.2 | +4.8 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 81.2 | 83.4 | -2.2 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 81.3 | 76.5 | +4.8 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.2 | 78.2 | -4.0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.2 | 92.0 | -5.8 | |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.0 | 94.2 | -10.2 | |
| 9 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 72.0 | 87.8 | -15.8 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 76 | |
| 27 | 16 | 28 | 15 | 86 |
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