Alabama faces Seton Hall on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model rating Alabama the clear favourite at 93% versus 7% for Seton Hall, driven by Alabama's 3-0 record, 102.0 points per game and 76.0 allowed per game compared to Seton Hall's 67.0 points per game and 54.7 allowed per game. Alabama has won all three of its games, all at home, scoring 102.0 and allowing 76.0, and has won four of its last five, including a 109-68 victory over Oakland, a 101-86 win over Arkansas State and a 96-74 win over Sam Houston St. Seton Hall also stands undefeated at 3-0, with 67.0 points per game and 54.7 allowed, winning four of its last five, most recently 68-62 over Charlotte, 67-60 over LIU Sharks and 66-42 over St. Peters. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a 68-62 win for Seton Hall. Pythia projects a score of 85-68, a total of 152.7 points, and a 59% chance that Alabama will cover the home line of -14.5, while the over on the 156.5 total has a 40% probability; the game carries a 2% overtime likelihood. Alabama's dominant offensive output and Seton Hall's modest scoring make the projected 85-68 outcome a realistic expectation.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alabama winWon
93.0%fair 1.07
Best odds1.06
Implied90.6%
Edge+2.5pp
Seton Hall winLost
7.0%fair 14.37
Best odds14.00
Implied9.4%
Edge-2.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
53.9%
@ 1.43-11.0pp
Under 151
46.1%
@ 2.65+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Over 156
Over 156
41.4%
@ 1.89-8.9pp
Under 156
58.6%
@ 1.95+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
29.7%
@ 2.50-7.8pp
Under 161
70.3%
@ 1.50+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Alabama total 82Push
Over 82
62.1%
Under 82
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama total 86 · main lineActual: Alabama under 86
Over 86
45.4%
@ 1.85-4.6pp
Under 86
54.6%
@ 1.85+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Alabama total 90Actual: Alabama under 90
Over 90
29.6%
Under 90
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Seton Hall total 66Actual: Seton Hall over 66
Over 66
56.7%
Under 66
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Seton Hall total 70 · main lineActual: Seton Hall over 70
Over 70
40.3%
@ 1.86-9.6pp
Under 70
59.7%
@ 1.85+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Seton Hall total 74Actual: Seton Hall over 74
Over 74
25.6%
Under 74
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Alabama -20Actual: Seton Hall +20
ALAB -20
39.5%
@ 2.35-0.1pp
SETO +20
60.5%
@ 1.54+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Bet365
2.35
SETO
Bet365
1.54
Spread Alabama -17 · main lineActual: Seton Hall +17
ALAB -17
50.5%
@ 1.93+0.6pp
SETO +17
49.5%
@ 1.92-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
SETO
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Spread Alabama -14Actual: Seton Hall +14
ALAB -14
61.4%
@ 1.60+1.8pp
SETO +14
38.6%
@ 2.36-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.54
SETO
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
AlabamaSeton Hall
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Seton Hall under 75.5
78.2%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Alabama under 90.5
71.4%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Alabama under 91.5
74.8%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 162
72.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Under 161
70.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
73.0%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Under 163.5
75.0%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Seton Hall under 74.5
75.2%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Under 163
74.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Seton Hall under 73.5
72.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Under 164
76.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Alabama under 96.5
87.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Alabama (regulation)
91.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.04
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
76.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Alabama -8
80.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Alabama -7.5
80.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Under 166.5
80.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Alabama -8.5
78.0%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Seton Hall under 80.5
89.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Alabama +3.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Alabama -6.5
82.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
Under 171.5
87.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Alabama -1.5
92.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Alabama -9.5
75.2%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Alabama win
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
WilliamHill
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+2.5pp
Won
Alabama over 69.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Alabama -10.5
72.3%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Seton Hall +24.5
74.3%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Alabama -10
74.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Seton Hall +23.5
71.4%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Alabama over 71.5
91.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Alabama -11
71.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Alabama -9
77.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Seton Hall +24
73.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Seton Hall +23
70.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Seton Hall over 53.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Seton Hall over 52.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Alabama over 73.5
87.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Seton Hall over 54.5
90.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Over 131.5
90.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Seton Hall over 55.5
88.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Alabama over 76.5
80.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Alabama over 75.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Seton Hall over 56.5
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Alabama over 77.5
77.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Seton Hall over 57.5
84.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Seton Hall over 58.5
82.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
84.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Seton Hall over 60.5
76.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Seton Hall over 59.5
79.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Seton Hall over 61.5
73.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 141.5
75.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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