Alabama hosts Arkansas State on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Alabama the clear favourite with a 97% chance of winning, reflecting their 1-0 record, 96.0 points per game and 74.0 allowed, and their league position of 115, while Arkansas State sits at 198 with 71.0 points per game and 70.0 allowed. Alabama's single game has been a 96-74 victory at home, and they have won 3 of their last 5, including a 90-65 win over Texas Tech at home, whereas Arkansas State has won 4 of 5, with a 71-70 win over Toledo at home, and both teams have only one game each this season. In head-to-head history, Alabama has won both meetings, the most recent being an 88-79 win on 8 November 2024. Pythia projects a 97-75 score and a 172.8 total, with a 63% probability of the over on the 167.5 line, and a 1% chance of overtime. The projected spread is 22 points in Alabama's favour.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alabama winWon
96.8%fair 1.03
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge+2.6pp
Arkansas State winLost
3.2%fair 31.60
Best odds34.00
Implied5.8%
Edge-2.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Alabama) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 170.5Actual: Over 170.5
Over 170.5
55.4%
@ 1.47-8.2pp
Under 170.5
44.6%
@ 2.55+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 175.5 · main lineActual: Over 175.5
Over 175.5
43.1%
@ 1.91-7.7pp
Under 175.5
56.9%
@ 1.95+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Over/Under 180.5Actual: Over 180.5
Over 180.5
31.4%
@ 2.50-7.2pp
Under 180.5
68.6%
@ 1.53+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Alabama total 97Actual: Alabama over 97
Over 97
51.8%
Under 97
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alabama total 101 · main linePush
Over 101
35.3%
@ 1.87-14.4pp
Under 101
64.7%
@ 1.85+14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Alabama total 105Actual: Alabama under 105
Over 105
21.3%
Under 105
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State total 71Actual: Arkansas State over 71
Over 71
67.2%
Under 71
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State total 75 · main lineActual: Arkansas State over 75
Over 75
51.0%
@ 1.85+0.6pp
Under 75
49.0%
@ 1.88-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas State total 79Actual: Arkansas State over 79
Over 79
34.7%
Under 79
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Alabama -29Actual: Arkansas State +29
ALAB -29
no forecast
@ 2.35
ARKA +29
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Bet365
2.35
ARKA
Bet365
1.54
Spread Alabama -26 · main lineActual: Arkansas State +26
ALAB -26
no forecast
@ 1.97
ARKA +26
no forecast
@ 1.83
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.96
Marathon Be
1.94
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.78
Spread Alabama -23Actual: Arkansas State +23
ALAB -23
46.6%
@ 1.60-11.3pp
ARKA +23
53.4%
@ 2.20+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Bet365
1.60
ARKA
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
AlabamaArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Alabama under 103.5
73.1%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Alabama under 104.5
76.3%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 181.5
70.8%
1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Under 182.5
72.9%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
Under 181
70.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
Under 182
72.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Under 183.5
74.9%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Under 183
74.4%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Alabama (regulation)
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Arkansas State over 57.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 185.5
78.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Arkansas State over 59.5
94.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Alabama over 78.5
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Arkansas State over 58.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Alabama over 80.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Alabama over 79.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Alabama over 82.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Arkansas State over 61.5
91.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Alabama win
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Alabama over 81.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Arkansas State over 60.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Arkansas State over 67.5
78.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Arkansas State over 63.5
88.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 148.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Arkansas State over 69.5
71.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Alabama over 83.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Alabama over 84.5
90.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Arkansas State over 62.5
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Arkansas State over 65.5
83.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Arkansas State under 80.5
70.1%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
Over 150.5
91.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Alabama -4.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Arkansas State over 64.5
86.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Alabama over 85.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Arkansas State over 66.5
81.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Alabama over 86.5
86.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 153.5
88.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Arkansas State over 68.5
75.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Alabama over 88.5
81.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 158.5
81.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Alabama over 87.5
84.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 155.5
85.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Alabama over 90.5
75.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Over 163.5
71.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Alabama over 89.5
78.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Alabama -10.5
84.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Alabama over 91.5
72.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Over 160.5
77.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Alabama -15.5
72.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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