American University vs UMBC Retrievers Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Dec 2024

Tip-off: 21:00

Final 93-96 (OT)

40-41 39-38 14-17

Position#102

Record6-6

FormWWWLL

Points / game68.7

Allowed / game70.3

American University

UMBC Retrievers 🏆

Position#280

Record7-7

FormLWWLL

Points / game82.3

Allowed / game74.7

NCAA

Other2024-25

Meetings · American University v UMBC Retrievers

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

American University winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

UMBC Retrievers winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

American University USA

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Siena

#256

66-74

-8

A13/11

NCAA

North Carolina

#111

55-107

107

-52

A16/11

NCAA

High Point

#13

73-80

-7

A19/11

NCAA

UMKC

#288

64-60

H22/11

NCAA

Mayaguez Bulldogs

#479

73-56

+17

H23/11

NCAA

Albany Great Danes

#197

81-77

H24/11

NCAA

Notre Dame MD

#551

97-52

+45

H01/12

NCAA

George Washington

#96

81-71 OT

+10

H05/12

NCAA

Saint Josephs Hawks

#90

57-84

-27

A19/12

NCAA

Virginia

#230

58-63

-5

A22/12

NCAA

36-36

30-38

34-43

21-64

29-39

44-41

27-29

37-31

36-26

37-30

39-30

42-47

37-34

60-18

28-22

32-38

26-44

31-40

28-32

30-31

142.9Avg total

70.5Scored

72.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	68.7	70.3	139.0	-1.7	50%
Season at home (6)	77.2	61.8	139.0	+15.3	100%
Season away (6)	60.2	78.8	139.0	-18.7	0%
Last 10 (10)	70.5	72.4	142.9	-1.9	50%
Last 5 (5)	74.8	69.4	144.2	+5.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	64.3	77.0	141.3	-12.7	43%
vs Similar ◀ (12)	64.3	67.5	131.8	-3.2	33%
vs Weaker (11)	69.9	57.0	126.9	+12.9	73%

This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

UMBC Retrievers USA

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

St. Peters

#259

61-69

-8

H16/11

NCAA

Hampton

#193

68-78

-10

H20/11

NCAA

Boston University

#211

71-75

-4

H23/11

NCAA

Howard

#302

95-77

+18

H25/11

NCAA

Morgan State

#258

92-69

+23

H27/11

NCAA

Georgetown

#176

62-86

-24

A02/12

NCAA

Towson

#78

84-71

+13

A07/12

NCAA

Cairn

#485

103-57

103

+46

H10/12

NCAA

Georgia Tech

#196

82-91

-9

A19/12

NCAA

Marist

#80

73-76 OT

-3

A21/12

NCAA

26-28

35-41

36-40

32-38

34-44

37-31

42-39

53-38

37-26

55-43

35-41

27-45

38-24

46-47

50-27

53-30

34-53

48-38

39-39

31-31

154.0Avg total

79.1Scored

74.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (14)	82.3	74.7	157.0	+7.6	50%
Season at home (9)	88.6	68.8	157.3	+19.8	67%
Season away (5)	71.0	85.4	156.4	-14.4	20%
Last 10 (10)	79.1	74.9	154.0	+4.2	40%
Last 5 (5)	80.8	76.2	157.0	+4.6	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	77.4	89.1	166.6	-11.7	0%
vs Similar ◀ (17)	77.2	75.2	152.4	+2.0	47%
vs Weaker (5)	93.6	64.0	157.6	+29.6	80%

This opponent (American University) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

American UniversityUMBC Retrievers

Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by half · pick a half

American UniversityLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Siena

#256

36-36

A13/11

NCAA

North Carolina

#111

34-43

-9

A16/11

NCAA

High Point

#13

29-39

-10

A19/11

NCAA

UMKC

#288

27-29

-2

H22/11

NCAA

Mayaguez Bulldogs

#479

36-26

+10

H23/11

NCAA

Albany Great Danes

#197

39-30

H24/11

NCAA

Notre Dame MD

#551

37-34

H01/12

NCAA

George Washington

#96

28-22

H05/12

NCAA

Saint Josephs Hawks

#90

26-44

-18

A19/12

NCAA

Virginia

#230

28-32

-4

A22/12

NCAA

65.5Avg total

32.0Scored

33.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	30.6	30.2	60.8	+0.5	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	30.9	29.1	60.1	+1.8	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	30.3	31.2	61.5	-0.9	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	32.0	33.5	65.5	-1.5	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	31.6	32.4	64.0	-0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	28.4	34.7	63.1	-6.3	14%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	29.6	29.6	59.2	+0.0	33%	-
vs Weaker (11)	33.2	27.9	61.1	+5.3	82%	-

This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

St. Peters

#259

26-28

-2

H16/11

NCAA

Hampton

#193

36-40

-4

H20/11

NCAA

Boston University

#211

34-44

-10

H23/11

NCAA

Howard

#302

42-39

H25/11

NCAA

Morgan State

#258

37-26

+11

H27/11

NCAA

Georgetown

#176

35-41

-6

A02/12

NCAA

Towson

#78

38-24

+14

A07/12

NCAA

Cairn

#485

50-27

+23

H10/12

NCAA

Georgia Tech

#196

34-53

-19

A19/12

NCAA

Marist

#80

39-39

A21/12

NCAA

73.2Avg total

37.1Scored

36.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.9	34.1	71.9	+3.8	60%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	39.4	31.4	70.8	+7.9	75%	-
Last 30 away (14)	36.1	37.1	73.2	-0.9	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	37.1	36.1	73.2	+1.0	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.2	36.8	76.0	+2.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	32.6	40.9	73.4	-8.3	14%	-
vs Similar ◀ (17)	36.6	34.0	70.6	+2.6	65%	-
vs Weaker (5)	46.2	26.6	72.8	+19.6	100%	-

This opponent (American University) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	34.6	35.2	69.9	-0.6	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	35.8	34.3	70.1	+1.5	47%	-
Last 30 away (15)	33.5	36.2	69.7	-2.7	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.4	37.8	74.2	-1.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.0	34.8	73.8	+4.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	32.9	40.7	73.6	-7.9	43%	-
vs Similar ◀ (12)	33.8	37.7	71.4	-3.9	17%	-
vs Weaker (11)	36.7	29.1	65.8	+7.6	73%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.2	41.4	83.6	+0.8	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	41.9	39.5	81.4	+2.4	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	42.5	43.6	86.1	-1.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.7	38.2	79.9	+3.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.0	38.2	79.2	+2.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	43.0	45.7	88.7	-2.7	71%	-
vs Similar ◀ (17)	40.4	40.8	81.2	-0.4	41%	-
vs Weaker (5)	47.4	37.4	84.8	+10.0	80%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

American University wins

UMBC Retrievers wins

Date	Game	Score
30/12/23	UMBC Retrievers v American University	85-87
24/11/21	UMBC Retrievers v American University	98-67
04/12/19	American University v UMBC Retrievers	85-61

American Universitylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
22/12/24	A	Virginia	58-63
19/12/24	A	Saint Josephs Hawks	57-84
05/12/24	H	George Washington	81-71 OT
01/12/24	H	Notre Dame MD	97-52
24/11/24	H	Albany Great Danes	81-77
23/11/24	H	Mayaguez Bulldogs	73-56
22/11/24	H	UMKC	64-60
19/11/24	A	High Point	73-80
16/11/24	A	North Carolina	55-107
13/11/24	A	Siena	66-74

UMBC Retrieverslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
21/12/24	A	Marist	73-76 OT
19/12/24	A	Georgia Tech	82-91
10/12/24	H	Cairn	103-57
07/12/24	A	Towson	84-71
02/12/24	A	Georgetown	62-86
27/11/24	H	Morgan State	92-69
25/11/24	H	Howard	95-77
23/11/24	H	Boston University	71-75
20/11/24	H	Hampton	68-78
16/11/24	H	St. Peters	61-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

American University

NCAA 2024-25

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLL	50%
Home	WWWWW	100%
Away	LLLLL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	6	6
Win %	50%	100%	0%
Points / game	68.7	77.2	60.2
Allowed / game	70.3	61.8	78.8
Point differential	-1.7	+15.3	-18.7
Avg total	139.0	139.0	139.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	33%	67%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	100% (2)	0% (1)
Overtime %	8%	17%	0%

UMBC Retrievers

NCAA 2024-25

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWLL	50%
Home	LLWWW	67%
Away	LLWLL	20%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	14	9	5
Win %	50%	67%	20%
Points / game	82.3	88.6	71.0
Allowed / game	74.7	68.8	85.4
Point differential	+7.6	+19.8	-14.4
Avg total	157.0	157.3	156.4
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	50%	67%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (2)	0% (1)	0% (1)
Overtime %	7%	0%	20%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Patriot League conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Holy Cross	13	8	5	62%	69.6	69.6	+0.0
2	Army	12	6	6	50%	80.1	77.6	+2.5
3	American University	12	6	6	50%	68.7	70.3	-1.7
4	Boston University	13	6	7	46%	69.3	68.7	+0.6
5	Loyola Maryland	11	5	6	45%	70.2	70.1	+0.1
6	Lehigh	11	5	6	45%	72.2	74.6	-2.5
7	Lafayette	13	5	8	38%	69.6	70.4	-0.8
8	Bucknell	13	4	9	31%	69.6	76.4	-6.8
9	Navy	13	3	10	23%	72.1	73.8	-1.8
10	Colgate	13	3	10	23%	67.4	73.2	-5.8

Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

America East conference

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	UMass Lowell	14	10	4	71%	84.0	75.6	+8.4
2	Maine Black Bears	15	8	7	53%	72.1	66.5	+5.6
3	Binghamton	15	8	7	53%	69.0	70.0	-1.0
4	UMBC Retrievers	14	7	7	50%	82.3	74.7	+7.6
5	Bryant University	14	6	8	43%	83.9	77.8	+6.1
6	Vermont	14	6	8	43%	62.6	67.7	-5.1
7	NJIT	14	2	12	14%	59.8	72.1	-12.4