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Arkansas State vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 71-70
36-35 35-35
Position#207
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Arkansas State 🏆
USA
Vs
70%
30%
■ ARKA 70%■ TOLE 30%
Pythia win probability
Projected 80-74
Projected total 153.5
Toledo
USA
Position#233
Record-
FormLLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Arkansas State will host Toledo on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA matchup where the model projects a tight 80-74 finish and a total of 153.5 points, reflecting both teams' defensive focus; Arkansas State's 70% win probability versus Toledo's 30% places the home side as the favourite, and the spread of -3.5 gives a 60% chance the home team will cover, while the 162.5 over line carries a 29% probability. Arkansas State is 4-1 in its last five games, having lost to Georgia Southern 77-80 at home on 5 March 2026 but then winning 81-58 over Louisiana Lafayette on 27 February 2026 and 89-84 over Southern Miss on 24 February 2026, showing a recent rebound after a narrow defeat; Toledo, meanwhile, is 2-3 in its last five, with a 75-77 loss to Caceres on 18 April 2026, a 66-64 win over Cordoba away on 12 April 2026 and a 75-70 victory at home over Clavijo on 5 April 2026, indicating a mixed form that could be challenged by Arkansas State's defensive solidity. The projected score of 80-74 and the 5% overtime probability suggest a close contest that will hinge on the teams' ability to limit scoring and exploit the few opportunities that arise.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winWon
69.9%fair 1.43
Best odds1.64
Implied60.1%
Edge+9.8pp
Toledo winLost
30.1%fair 3.32
Best odds2.41
Implied39.9%
Edge-9.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
L
61-70
61
70
-9
H31/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A05/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
91-54
91
54
+37
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
103-70
103
70
+33
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
102-94
102
94
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-41
23-29
27-29
43-37
40-14
51-40
49-37
54-33
41-32
42-51
36-33
43-29
56-49
46-45
53-44
36-40
37-22
44-36
34-42
43-38
157.1Avg total
84.1Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.173.0157.1+11.170%
Last 5 (5)85.675.6161.2+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)78.582.5161.0-4.050%
vs Similar (11)80.578.0158.5+2.555%
vs Weaker (15)83.876.2160.0+7.667%
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#9
W
85-68
85
68
+17
H08/03
Segunda FEB
Bowling Green
#143
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H12/03
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H13/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
76-79
76
79
-3
A15/03
NCAA
Logrono
#24
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A15/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
74-75
74
75
-1
H22/03
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
74-78
74
78
-4
A28/03
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Cordoba
#5
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A12/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#13
L
75-77
75
77
-2
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
19-15
26-15
16-17
0-0
37-38
0-0
40-38
0-0
43-34
0-0
34-33
0-0
42-30
0-0
34-49
17-25
13-15
22-11
15-14
24-19
16-17
10-23
24-16
16-16
23-24
14-20
21-18
17-17
24-19
19-14
15-20
18-19
15-6
20-23
13-16
21-24
22-18
18-14
14-21
146.5Avg total
74.6Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)74.671.9146.5+2.760%
Last 5 (5)72.872.8145.6+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)74.878.7153.5-3.833%
vs Similar (13)77.175.8152.9+1.246%
vs Weaker (11)79.570.6150.2+8.973%
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
39.7%
Under 157.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162.5 · main lineActual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
28.7%
@ 1.91-21.3pp
Under 162.5
71.3%
@ 1.91+21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 167.5Actual: Under 167.5
Over 167.5
19.6%
@ 2.08-26.1pp
Under 167.5
80.4%
@ 1.75+26.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.75

📊 3. Team Totals

Arkansas State total 80Actual: Arkansas State under 80
Over 80
48.7%
Under 80
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State total 84 · main lineActual: Arkansas State under 84
Over 84
32.9%
@ 1.85-17.1pp
Under 84
67.1%
@ 1.85+17.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas State total 88Actual: Arkansas State under 88
Over 88
19.7%
Under 88
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 76Actual: Toledo under 76
Over 76
40.7%
Under 76
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toledo total 80 · main lineActual: Toledo under 80
Over 80
26.4%
@ 1.85-23.6pp
Under 80
73.6%
@ 1.85+23.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Toledo total 84Actual: Toledo under 84
Over 84
15.5%
Under 84
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Arkansas State -6.5Actual: Toledo +6.5
ARKA -6.5
48.4%
TOLE +6.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
No market prices yet.
TOLE
No market prices yet.
Spread Arkansas State -3.5 · main lineActual: Toledo +3.5
ARKA -3.5
60.0%
@ 1.91+9.6pp
TOLE +3.5
40.0%
@ 1.94-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
TOLE
Pinnacle
1.94
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Spread Arkansas State -0.5Actual: Arkansas State -0.5
ARKA -0.5
69.9%
TOLE +0.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
No market prices yet.
TOLE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: -0.7-0.7
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: +3.4+3.42nd half2nd half: +4.7+4.72nd half: -0.7-0.7
Arkansas StateToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H31/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A05/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
40-14
40
14
+26
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H06/03
NCAA
75.4Avg total
41.1Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)39.635.374.8+4.367%23%
Last 30 at home (16)41.232.473.6+8.875%19%
Last 30 away (14)37.738.576.2-0.857%29%
Last 10 (10)41.134.375.4+6.870%30%
Last 5 (5)43.238.081.2+5.280%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)39.041.080.0-2.050%50%
vs Similar (11)38.733.472.1+5.473%18%
vs Weaker (15)39.137.176.2+2.160%27%
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#9
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H08/03
Segunda FEB
Bowling Green
#143
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H12/03
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H13/03
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A15/03
NCAA
Logrono
#24
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A15/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H22/03
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A28/03
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Cordoba
#5
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A12/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#13
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H18/04
Segunda FEB
74.8Avg total
39.1Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)38.435.574.0+2.963%23%
Last 30 at home (15)39.734.273.9+5.587%20%
Last 30 away (15)37.236.974.1+0.340%27%
Last 10 (10)39.135.774.8+3.470%10%
Last 5 (5)39.235.875.0+3.480%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.537.376.8+2.250%17%
vs Similar (13)36.235.171.3+1.269%15%
vs Weaker (11)40.535.175.5+5.464%36%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Arkansas State win
ARKA win
no forecast
@ 1.65
TOLE win
no forecast
@ 2.28
1st half Spread Arkansas State -2 · main lineActual: Toledo +2
ARKA -2
no forecast
@ 1.95
TOLE +2
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 79 · main lineActual: Under 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Arkansas State 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: Arkansas State under 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Toledo 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Toledo under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.89
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 2.14
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.71
1st half Spread Arkansas State -3Actual: Toledo +3
ARKA -3
no forecast
@ 2.15
TOLE +3
no forecast
@ 1.71
1st half Spread Arkansas State -1Push
ARKA -1
no forecast
@ 1.78
TOLE +1
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 76Actual: Under 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.66
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread Arkansas State -4.5Actual: Toledo +4.5
ARKA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
TOLE +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Arkansas State +0.5Actual: Arkansas State +0.5
ARKA +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
TOLE -0.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.20
Under
no forecast
@ 1.30
1st half Spread Arkansas State -5.5Actual: Toledo +5.5
ARKA -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
TOLE +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Arkansas State (regulation)
ARKA
no forecast
@ 1.70
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
TOLE
no forecast
@ 2.26

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
🔒 1 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 16474.7%2.06
Pinnacle
2.06		----+28.6ppWon
Under 16576.6%1.96
Pinnacle
1.96		----+28.0ppWon
Under 164.575.2%1.88
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78		-+27.9ppWon
Under 16678.4%1.87
Pinnacle
1.87		----+27.3ppWon
Under 165.577.0%1.85
Pinnacle
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
BetVictor
1.83		+27.3ppWon
Toledo under 81.577.3%1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80		--+26.9ppWon
Toledo under 82.580.1%1.77
Pinnacle
1.77		----+26.9ppWon
Toledo under 80.574.4%1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
BetVictor
1.85		---+26.8ppWon
Under 16780.1%1.78
Pinnacle
1.78		----+26.7ppWon
Toledo under 8176.7%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+26.7ppWon
Under 166.578.8%1.77
Pinnacle
1.82
WilliamHill
1.73		---+26.5ppWon
Under 16881.7%1.71
Pinnacle
1.71		----+26.2ppWon
Under 167.580.4%1.75
Pinnacle
1.75		----+26.1ppWon
Toledo under 84.584.8%1.53
1xBet
1.53		----+24.0ppWon
Toledo under 8073.6%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+23.6ppWon
Under 16270.6%1.95
Pinnacle
1.95		----+22.0ppWon
Under 16372.7%1.85
Pinnacle
1.85		----+21.3ppWon
Under 162.571.3%1.88
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.83		--+21.3ppWon
Toledo under 79.571.3%1.86
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.85		---+21.0ppWon
Under 163.573.2%1.81
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.77		-+20.5ppWon
Toledo under 83.582.6%1.50
1xBet
1.50		----+20.1ppWon
Arkansas State under 85.571.8%1.66
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.53		---+18.7ppWon
Arkansas State under 87.578.0%1.50
1xBet
1.50		----+15.5ppWon
Arkansas State under 90.585.8%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+14.2ppWon
Arkansas State under 86.575.0%1.53
1xBet
1.53		----+14.1ppWon
Arkansas State under 89.583.4%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+12.3ppWon
Arkansas State under 88.580.8%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+9.7ppWon
Arkansas State under 91.587.9%1.17
1xBet
1.17		----+8.5ppWon
Overtime: no95.3%1.05
WilliamHill
1.05		----+5.8pp-
Arkansas State over 73.572.9%1.12
1xBet
1.12		-----10.2ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Arkansas State wins
0
Toledo wins
No previous meetings.
Arkansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-80
28/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette81-58
25/02/26HSouthern Miss89-84
21/02/26ALouisiana Monroe102-94
20/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette79-62
14/02/26HSouth Alabama88-92 OT
12/02/26HLouisiana Monroe103-70
07/02/26HBowling Green91-54
05/02/26ACoastal Carolina70-66
31/01/26HMarshall61-70
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/04/26HCaceres75-77
12/04/26ACordoba66-64
05/04/26HClavijo75-70
28/03/26AGijon74-78
22/03/26HMoron74-75
15/03/26ALogrono67-65
15/03/26AAkron76-79
13/03/26HUMass77-67
12/03/26HBowling Green77-76
08/03/26HIraurgi SB85-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 162.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Toledo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 162.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Marshall110100%92.065.0+27.0
2 Georgia Southern110100%67.055.0+12.0
3 Old Dominion110100%61.049.0+12.0
4 Coastal Carolina1010%70.071.0-1.0
5 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
6 Louisiana Monroe1010%78.083.0-5.0
7 James Madison1010%77.086.0-9.0
8 Troy1010%60.071.0-11.0
9 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass110100%71.060.0+11.0
2 Miami (Ohio)110100%86.077.0+9.0
3 Central Michigan110100%83.078.0+5.0
4 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
5 Eastern Michigan110100%71.070.0+1.0
6 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
7 Kent State1010%75.085.0-10.0
8 Ball State1010%55.067.0-12.0
9 Western Michigan1010%49.061.0-12.0
10 Buffalo1010%65.092.0-27.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State363571
Toledo353570
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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