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Toledo vs Bowling Green Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 77-76
37-38 40-38
Position#156
Record17-14
FormWWLWW
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game76.8
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#143
Record18-13
FormLLLWW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game71.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Toledo v Bowling Green
12 Mar 2026
TOLE77
BOWL76
24 Jan 2026
TOLE73
BOWL72
21 Feb 2025
TOLE68
BOWL69
27 Jan 2024
TOLE88
BOWL72
28 Jan 2023
TOLE91
BOWL77
04 Mar 2022
TOLE96
BOWL56
13 Feb 2021
TOLE81
BOWL88
25 Jan 2020
TOLE79
BOWL85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bowling Green winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
90-79
90
79
+11
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
70-80
70
80
-10
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
W
80-79 OT
80
79
+1
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
94-75
94
75
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
64-67
64
67
-3
A22/02
Segunda FEB
Northern Illinois
#342
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H25/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
79-67
79
67
+12
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A04/03
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
98-78
98
78
+20
H07/03
NCAA
Iraurgi SB
#9
W
85-68
85
68
+17
H08/03
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
50-41
0-0
40-38
0-0
35-37
0-0
35-43
13-13
8-16
30-17
18-23
0-0
51-29
0-0
43-46
11-21
19-14
13-17
21-15
0-0
36-31
0-0
43-38
0-0
41-28
0-0
38-39
0-0
35-40
0-0
37-34
0-0
37-33
0-0
61-45
24-21
19-15
26-15
16-17
154.7Avg total
81.1Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)81.476.8158.2+4.655%
Season at home (15)85.274.6159.8+10.673%
Season away (16)77.978.9156.8-1.038%
Last 10 (10)81.173.6154.7+7.570%
Last 5 (5)82.671.2153.8+11.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)73.082.7155.7-9.717%
vs Similar (11)81.379.5160.8+1.755%
vs Weaker (12)80.970.8151.7+10.283%
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Bowling GreenUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#323
L
59-62
59
62
-3
A01/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
77-52
77
52
+25
H04/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
54-91
54
91
-37
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
68-52
68
52
+16
A12/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
71-78
71
78
-7
H18/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
77-91
77
91
-14
A21/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
79-88
79
88
-9
H25/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-20
27-42
40-27
37-25
14-40
40-51
38-19
30-33
37-35
43-35
25-30
46-48
30-45
47-46
38-41
41-47
28-37
53-25
28-31
49-38
143.8Avg total
72.3Scored
71.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)81.571.4152.9+10.158%
Season at home (19)85.168.9154.0+16.163%
Season away (12)75.875.2151.1+0.650%
Last 10 (10)72.371.5143.8+0.850%
Last 5 (5)77.077.6154.6-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)75.787.0162.7-11.30%
vs Similar (2)62.586.5149.0-24.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)81.770.0151.7+11.667%
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +4.0+4.01st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +2.3+2.3
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: +4.0+4.01st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +2.3+2.3
ToledoBowling Green
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Western Michigan
#325
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A12/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A14/02
NCAA
Caja 87
#4
L
21-29
21
29
-8
H15/02
Segunda FEB
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H21/02
NCAA
Jaen
#23
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
Segunda FEB
Northern Illinois
#342
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A04/03
NCAA
Buffalo
#180
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H07/03
NCAA
Iraurgi SB
#9
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H08/03
Segunda FEB
71.8Avg total
37.9Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.936.974.8+1.053%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.335.074.3+4.373%-
Last 30 away (15)36.638.875.4-2.233%-
Last 10 (10)37.933.971.8+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)38.433.672.0+4.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)37.045.082.0-8.033%-
vs Similar (11)35.536.071.5-0.545%-
vs Weaker (12)39.734.474.1+5.267%-
This opponent (Bowling Green) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Bowling GreenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#323
W
32-20
32
20
+12
A01/02
NCAA
Ball State
#288
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
14-40
14
40
-26
A07/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
38-19
38
19
+19
A12/02
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H18/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H25/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A06/03
NCAA
63.5Avg total
31.0Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.134.171.2+3.150%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.634.372.8+4.356%-
Last 30 away (12)35.033.868.8+1.242%-
Last 10 (10)31.032.563.5-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)29.836.866.6-7.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)28.347.375.7-19.00%-
vs Similar (2)22.539.061.5-16.50%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)38.032.370.4+5.758%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toledo wins
3
Bowling Green wins
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HIraurgi SB85-68
07/03/26HBuffalo98-78
04/03/26AMiami (Ohio)72-74
28/02/26AOhio79-67
25/02/26HNorthern Illinois79-69
22/02/26AJaen64-67
21/02/26HEastern Michigan94-75
15/02/26HCaja 8780-79 OT
14/02/26ABowling Green70-80
12/02/26AWestern Michigan90-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26AEastern Michigan77-69
28/02/26HUMass81-62
25/02/26HWestern Michigan79-88
21/02/26AMiami (Ohio)77-91
18/02/26HKent State71-78
14/02/26HToledo80-70
12/02/26ANorthern Illinois68-52
07/02/26AArkansas State54-91
04/02/26HBall State77-52
01/02/26ACentral Michigan59-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW55%
HomeWLWWW73%
AwayLWLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %55%73%38%
Points / game81.485.277.9
Allowed / game76.874.678.9
Point differential+4.6+10.6-1.0
Avg total158.2159.8156.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%53%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)50% (4)14% (7)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bowling Green
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW58%
HomeWWLLW63%
AwayLLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311912
Win %58%63%50%
Points / game81.585.175.8
Allowed / game71.468.975.2
Point differential+10.1+16.1+0.6
Avg total152.9154.0151.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%53%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)100% (1)20% (5)
Overtime %3%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)3231197%90.775.3+15.4
2 Akron3126584%89.673.7+15.9
3 Kent State3122971%85.480.2+5.2
4 Bowling Green31181358%81.571.4+10.1
5 Toledo31171455%81.476.8+4.6
6 Buffalo31171455%78.376.3+2.0
7 UMass32171553%80.777.7+3.0
8 Ohio31151648%78.078.4-0.4
9 Ball State31121939%67.569.5-2.0
10 Eastern Michigan31102132%70.773.5-2.8
11 Central Michigan31102132%73.476.9-3.5
12 Western Michigan31102132%74.879.5-4.7
13 Northern Illinois3092130%69.577.8-8.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo374077
Bowling Green383876
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