Arkansas hosts Robert Morris on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating the Razorbacks as the clear favourite, rating them 97% to win largely because of their 1-1 season record, 89.0 points per game and 76.0 points allowed per game, and a perfect 1-0 home record with 106.0 points scored and 61.0 allowed. Robert Morris, meanwhile, sits 0-2 with 52.5 points per game and 82.5 allowed, and has no road wins. Arkansas has won three of its last five games, including a 106-61 home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, while Robert Morris has won two of its last five, but all three recent losses have been away. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 90-67 score, 157.2 total points, with a 97% probability for Arkansas to win and a 3% chance for Robert Morris. The home team line is 155.5 for the total, with a 54% chance of the over, and there is a 1% probability of overtime. Arkansas's strong home performance and Robert Morris's struggles suggest the Razorbacks will control the game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arkansas winWon
97.1%fair 1.03
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Robert Morris winLost
2.9%fair 34.47
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Arkansas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Under 150.5
Over 150.5
66.1%
@ 1.37-2.2pp
Under 150.5
33.9%
@ 3.05+2.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
54.1%
@ 1.85+2.6pp
Under 155.5
45.9%
@ 2.12-2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Under 160.5
Over 160.5
41.8%
@ 2.20-1.5pp
Under 160.5
58.2%
@ 1.65+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathon Be
1.62
Bet365
1.60
📊 3. Team Totals
Arkansas total 88.5Actual: Arkansas under 88.5
Over 88.5
55.7%
@ 1.34-13.6pp
Under 88.5
44.3%
@ 3.20+13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.80
Arkansas total 92.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas under 92.5
Over 92.5
39.7%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Under 92.5
60.3%
@ 2.25+11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.15
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas total 96.5Actual: Arkansas under 96.5
Over 96.5
25.3%
@ 2.05-18.9pp
Under 96.5
74.7%
@ 1.62+18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.62
Robert Morris total 59Actual: Robert Morris under 59
Over 59
80.5%
Under 59
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Robert Morris total 63 · main lineActual: Robert Morris under 63
Over 63
67.1%
@ 1.85+17.1pp
Under 63
32.9%
@ 1.85-17.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Robert Morris total 67Actual: Robert Morris under 67
Over 67
50.9%
Under 67
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Arkansas -32.5Actual: Robert Morris +32.5
ARKA -32.5
no forecast
@ 2.16
ROBE +32.5
no forecast
@ 1.81
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.01
Marathon Be
1.93
SBO
1.88
ROBE
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.73
Spread Arkansas -29.5 · main lineActual: Robert Morris +29.5
ARKA -29.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ROBE +29.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.68
ROBE
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Spread Arkansas -26.5Actual: Robert Morris +26.5
ARKA -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
ROBE +26.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
ROBE
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.57
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ArkansasRobert Morris
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Robert Morris over 62
70.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Arkansas under 95
70.4%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Robert Morris over 61.5
71.8%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Lost
Arkansas under 96.5
74.7%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Arkansas under 97.5
77.9%
1.53
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Arkansas under 98.5
80.7%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Arkansas under 95.5
71.4%
1.77
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Arkansas under 99.5
83.4%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
Arkansas under 100.5
85.7%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Robert Morris over 60.5
75.1%
1.50
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 59.5
78.2%
1.44
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 57.5
83.6%
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 58.5
81.0%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 56.5
86.0%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 55.5
88.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 53.5
91.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 54.5
89.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 51.5
94.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Robert Morris over 52.5
93.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 148
72.0%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Lost
Over 147
74.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Over 147.5
72.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Over 129.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Arkansas over 73.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Over 146.5
74.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Over 134.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Arkansas over 72.5
96.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Over 144.5
78.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Under 166
71.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 178.5
90.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
86.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
Over 133.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
Arkansas over 75.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 166.5
71.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Arkansas over 74.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 168.5
75.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 179.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Under 173.5
84.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 148.5
70.5%
1.30
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Arkansas over 77.5
89.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Lost
Over 138.5
87.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Arkansas over 82.5
77.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Lost
Under 174.5
85.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Arkansas over 79.5
85.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Lost
Over 143.5
80.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Robert Morris under 78.5
87.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Robert Morris under 79.5
88.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Arkansas -9.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Under 169.5
77.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Robert Morris under 77.5
84.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Arkansas over 81.5
80.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Lost
Robert Morris under 76.5
82.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Arkansas -11.5
83.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
Arkansas over 83.5
74.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Lost
Robert Morris under 75.5
79.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Robert Morris under 74.5
76.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Arkansas over 84.5
70.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Lost
Robert Morris under 73.5
73.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.5pp
Won
Arkansas -14.5
76.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Robert Morris under 72.5
70.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Arkansas -16.5
70.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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