Illinois (Chi.) faces Robert Morris on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Illinois (Chi.) as the clear favourite thanks to a 92% win probability and a projected 82-65 victory that reflects their dominant 1-0 season record, 96.0 points scored per game and only 47.0 points allowed, placing them 23rd in the league; Robert Morris, meanwhile, sits at 390th with a 0-1 record, 49.0 points per game and 86.0 allowed. Illinois (Chi.) has won all five of its recent games, including a 96-47 home win over St. Francis (ILL), while Robert Morris has three wins and two losses in its last five, with a 49-86 loss to Nevada away and a 68-53 home win over Youngstown State. Historically, Illinois (Chi.) has won five of six meetings, though Robert Morris last beat Illinois (Chi.) 88-74 on 26 November 2025. The Pythia model gives Illinois (Chi.) a 92% chance to win, a 68% probability to cover the home line of -11.0, and a 58% chance the total will exceed 143.5, with a 2% overtime probability. The projected score is 82-65, totaling 147.0 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Illinois (Chi.) winWon
91.9%fair 1.09
Best odds1.19
Implied82.8%
Edge+9.2pp
Robert Morris winLost
8.1%fair 12.42
Best odds5.75
Implied17.2%
Edge-9.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Illinois (Chi.) -10
71.6%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) over 75.5
73.2%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -7.5
78.2%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -9
74.7%
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -9.5
72.5%
1.79
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.77
+19.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -8
77.5%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -8.5
75.4%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.76
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.60
-
+18.0pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -6.5
80.7%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -7
80.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -5.5
83.1%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -6
82.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) (regulation)
90.7%
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -4.5
85.4%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -5
85.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -3.5
87.4%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -4
87.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -2.5
89.0%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) -3
88.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) win
91.9%
1.16
Marathon Bet
1.19
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.16
Bet365
1.15
+9.2pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) +4.5
95.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Illinois (Chi.) +9.5
98.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.1%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5pp
-
Robert Morris under 72.5
76.2%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
72.0%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Over 137
73.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Over 136.5
74.1%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Robert Morris under 71.5
73.1%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 138
71.4%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Over 136
75.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Over 135.5
76.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Over 133.5
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Robert Morris over 50.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Robert Morris over 51.5
91.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Robert Morris over 52.5
90.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Robert Morris over 53.5
88.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Robert Morris over 54.5
86.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Robert Morris over 55.5
83.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
84.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Robert Morris over 57.5
78.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 56.5
81.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 59.5
71.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Lost
Robert Morris over 58.5
75.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Lost
Under 158.5
76.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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