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Black Fortress vs Rustavi Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 83-86
Projected total 169.5
Final 83-85
16-25 16-17 23-19 28-24
Position#11
Record0-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game88.4
Black Fortress
Georgia
Vs
38%
62%
■ BLAC 38%■ RUST 62%
Pythia win probability
Rustavi 🏆
Georgia
Position#3
Record3-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game87.8
Allowed / game87.5
GeorgiaSuperleagueRound 6· Otar Korkia and Nodar Jorjikia Tbilisi Sports Palace (Tbilisi Arena)
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Black Fortress will host Rustavi in the Superleague on 7 November 2026, a clash that pits a team on a 0-5 slide against a side that has gone 3-1 so far, the latter enjoying a 87.8 points per game average while Black Fortress has been held to 79.2. Black Fortress has yet to win a game in the competition, dropping 88.4 points per game and failing to secure a victory at home in its three matches, where it has allowed 84.0 points per game; its last five games have all been losses, including a 81-82 defeat to Orbi on 1 November, a 79-88 loss to Telavi on 24 October, and a 82-89 loss to TSU on 17 October. Rustavi, meanwhile, has won three of four games, scoring 87.5 points per game and allowing 87.5, and has won its last five games, with recent victories over Margveti, Orbi and Telavi. Pythia rates Rustavi the favourite with a 62% chance of winning versus Black Fortress's 38%, projecting a 83-86 score and 169.5 total points; the home team's 4.5-point line has a 53% chance of being covered, and the over on 169.5 carries a 49% probability, with a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Black Fortress can stop Rustavi's recent surge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Black Fortress winLost
38.3%fair 2.61
Best odds2.66
Implied34.8%
Edge+3.5pp
Rustavi winWon
61.7%fair 1.62
Best odds1.53
Implied65.2%
Edge-3.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 14:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Black FortressGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFortress
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
78avg 69
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
L
70-75
70
75
-5
45avg 69
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#7
L
82-89
82
89
-7
80avg 69
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#6
L
79-88
79
88
-9
70avg 69
H24/10
Superleague
Orbi
#2
L
81-82
81
82
-1
73avg 69
A01/11
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-27
22-32
16-24
28-25
22-21
12-21
20-16
16-17
22-22
21-26
20-13
19-28
19-26
17-19
22-17
21-26
14-20
19-14
22-18
26-30
167.6Avg total
79.2Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.288.4167.6-9.20%
Season at home (3)77.084.0161.0-7.00%
Season away (2)82.595.0177.5-12.50%
Last 10 (5)79.288.4167.6-9.20%
Last 5 (5)79.288.4167.6-9.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)79.288.4167.6-9.20%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Rustavi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RustaviGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRustavi
Date
Competition
Batumi
#1
L
75-77
75
77
-2
71avg 79
H16/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
86-89
86
89
-3
71avg 79
H19/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
108-72
108
72
+36
104avg 79
H22/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
93-62
93
62
+31
95avg 79
H24/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
L
88-90
88
90
-2
78avg 79
A27/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
89-77
89
77
+12
no box
A29/04
Superleague
TSU
#7
L
77-88
77
88
-11
42avg 79
A03/10
Superleague
Telavi
#6
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
86avg 79
H09/10
Superleague
Orbi
#2
W
95-92
95
92
+3
88avg 79
A18/10
Superleague
Margveti
#9
W
82-76
82
76
+6
79avg 79
H30/10
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
19-21
16-22
17-14
27-31
17-19
19-17
23-22
25-21
28-17
24-19
31-15
22-17
27-11
13-18
31-16
12-22
15-24
28-21
33-23
21-25
30-20
21-16
17-16
22-19
23-22
15-24
17-23
21-24
24-14
27-25
16-25
30-15
18-22
23-27
24-28
22-13
24-24
21-15
15-24
170.7Avg total
89.0Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)87.887.5175.2+0.275%
Season at home (2)89.585.0174.5+4.5100%
Season away (2)86.090.0176.0-4.050%
Last 10 (10)89.081.7170.7+7.360%
Last 5 (5)88.085.4173.4+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)84.589.8174.2-5.225%
vs Similar (16)82.686.4169.0-3.931%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)88.477.6166.0+10.870%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Over 164.5
Over 164.5
61.0%
Under 164.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169.5 · main lineActual: Under 169.5
Over 169.5
49.1%
@ 1.87-0.9pp
Under 169.5
50.9%
@ 1.87+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
Over/Under 174.5Actual: Under 174.5
Over 174.5
37.3%
Under 174.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Black Fortress total 78.5Actual: Black Fortress over 78.5
Over 78.5
66.6%
Under 78.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Black Fortress total 82.5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress over 82.5
Over 82.5
51.7%
@ 1.83+1.7pp
Under 82.5
48.3%
@ 1.83-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Black Fortress total 86.5Actual: Black Fortress under 86.5
Over 86.5
36.6%
Under 86.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi total 83.5Actual: Rustavi over 83.5
Over 83.5
61.1%
Under 83.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rustavi total 87.5 · main lineActual: Rustavi under 87.5
Over 87.5
45.7%
@ 1.86-3.4pp
Under 87.5
54.3%
@ 1.80+3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Rustavi total 91.5Actual: Rustavi under 91.5
Over 91.5
30.9%
Under 91.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Black Fortress +2Push
BLAC +2
43.0%
@ 2.35+3.6pp
RUST -2
57.0%
@ 1.53-3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BLAC
Pinnacle
2.35
RUST
Pinnacle
1.53
Spread Black Fortress +5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress +5
BLAC +5
54.9%
@ 1.85+4.5pp
RUST -5
45.1%
@ 1.91-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BLAC
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.75
RUST
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Spread Black Fortress +8Actual: Black Fortress +8
BLAC +8
66.1%
RUST -8
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
BLAC
No market prices yet.
RUST
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: +1.8+1.8
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.2-4.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: +1.8+1.8
Black FortressRustavi
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Black FortressLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#7
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#6
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H24/10
Superleague
Orbi
#2
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A01/11
Superleague
82.8Avg total
37.2Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 84.5
Last 30 (5)37.245.682.8-8.40%40%
Last 30 at home (3)37.745.082.7-7.30%33%
Last 30 away (2)36.546.583.0-10.00%50%
Last 10 (5)37.245.682.8-8.40%40%
Last 5 (5)37.245.682.8-8.40%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)37.245.682.8-8.40%40%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Rustavi) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RustaviLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Batumi
#1
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H16/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H19/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H22/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
49-28
49
28
+21
H24/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
L
27-46
27
46
-19
A27/04
Superleague
Griffin
#11
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A29/04
Superleague
TSU
#7
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A03/10
Superleague
Telavi
#6
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H09/10
Superleague
Orbi
#2
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A18/10
Superleague
Margveti
#9
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H30/10
Superleague
85.1Avg total
45.0Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 84.5
Last 30 (30)42.741.984.5+0.857%40%
Last 30 at home (15)43.641.985.5+1.753%33%
Last 30 away (15)41.741.983.6-0.160%47%
Last 10 (10)45.040.185.1+4.980%50%
Last 5 (5)47.039.686.6+7.4100%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)43.548.892.2-5.250%50%
vs Similar (16)41.641.683.1+0.050%38%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)44.139.683.7+4.570%40%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Rustavi win
BLAC win
no forecast
@ 2.32
RUST win
no forecast
@ 1.58
1st half Spread Black Fortress +2.5 · main lineActual: Rustavi -2.5
BLAC +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
RUST -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 84.5 · main lineActual: Under 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Black Fortress 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Black Fortress under 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Rustavi 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Rustavi under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: BLAC + total 84.5
BLAC & over
no forecast
@ 4.25
BLAC & under
no forecast
@ 4.50
1st half: Draw + total 84.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Rustavi (regulation)
BLAC
no forecast
@ 2.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
RUST
no forecast
@ 1.64

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BLAC win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
RUST win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BLAC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: RUST leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Overtime: no94.8%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+3.3pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Black Fortresstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Black Fortress: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀18%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.4 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.9 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.624.2
49.8%
48.2%48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.04.6
25.6%
31.1%13.8
🏀 Free throws21.413.6
63.6%
64.0%13.6
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 27% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rustavitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Rustavi: 85.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.6 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.9 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.724.0
52.5%
48.2%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.18.9
32.8%
31.1%26.7
🏀 Free throws18.910.6
56.1%
64.0%10.6
They take 72.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Black Fortress
LLLLL
Rustavi
WWWLWLWWLL
#11
League position
#3
-13.6
Net rating
+4.9
81.8
Offensive rating
90.2
95.4
Defensive rating
85.4
46.7%
Effective FG%
51.3%
51.3%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
16.3%
Turnover %
15.3%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
25.6%
3-point %
32.8%
69.4%
Assist %
66.9%
0%
Form (last 5/10)
60%

Profile

Offence81.8 · 90.2Defence95.4 · 85.4Shooting46.7% · 51.3%3-point %25.6% · 32.8%Ball care16.3% · 15.3%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 5/10)0% · 60%
■ Black Fortress   ■ Rustavi
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Black Fortress wins
0
Rustavi wins
No previous meetings.
Black Fortresslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26AOrbi81-82
24/10/26HTelavi79-88
17/10/26HTSU82-89
10/10/26HIverioni70-75
04/10/26ACIU84-108
Rustavilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HMargveti82-76
18/10/26AOrbi95-92
09/10/26HTelavi97-94 OT
03/10/26ATSU77-88
29/04/26AGriffin89-77
27/04/26AGriffin88-90
24/04/26HGriffin93-62
22/04/26HGriffin108-72
19/04/26HOrbi86-89
16/04/26HBatumi75-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Black Fortress
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Losses (last 5)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game79.277.082.5
Allowed / game88.484.095.0
Point differential-9.2-7.0-12.5
Avg total167.6161.0177.5
Over 169.540%33%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Rustavi
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game87.889.586.0
Allowed / game87.585.090.0
Point differential+0.2+4.5-4.0
Avg total175.2174.5176.0
Over 169.550%50%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %25%50%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CIU440100%93.272.0+21.2
2 Orbi54180%84.082.4+1.6
3 Batumi43175%77.877.2+0.5
4 Rustavi43175%87.887.5+0.2
5 Telavi53260%85.482.0+3.4
6 TSU63350%84.584.2+0.3
7 Iverioni42250%77.078.2-1.2
8 Akhaltsikhe42250%75.079.5-4.5
9 Margveti51420%77.681.0-3.4
10 Kutaisi61517%79.083.8-4.8
11 Black Fortress5050%79.288.4-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Black Fortress1616232883
Rustavi2517192485
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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