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Cal Poly vs Montana State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 17 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 80-83
41-40 39-43
Position#266
Record5-6
FormLLWWL
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game86.3
vs
Position#144
Record4-7
FormWLWLL
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game69.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cal Poly winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Montana State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Cal PolyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pacific Lutheran
#427
W
101-79
101
79
+22
H06/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
73-71
73
71
+2
A09/11
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
79-93
79
93
-14
A13/11
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
82-90
82
90
-8
A15/11
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
92-85
92
85
+7
A21/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
L
87-93
87
93
-6
A25/11
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
68-84
68
84
-16
H26/11
NCAA
Redlands
#383
W
87-81
87
81
+6
H30/11
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
94-91
94
91
+3
A05/12
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H07/12
NCAA
1H
2H
41-36
60-43
39-38
34-33
37-47
42-46
26-37
56-53
50-39
42-46
46-52
41-41
31-29
37-55
41-35
46-46
43-44
51-47
36-46
48-42
170.2Avg total
84.7Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)82.886.3169.1-3.545%
Season at home (4)85.083.0168.0+2.050%
Season away (7)81.688.1169.7-6.643%
Last 10 (10)84.785.5170.2-0.850%
Last 5 (5)84.087.4171.4-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)76.288.5164.7-12.317%
vs Similar (12)83.781.7165.3+2.058%
vs Weaker (4)89.870.5160.2+19.2100%
This opponent (Montana State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Montana StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwest Indian
#689
W
114-44
114
44
+70
H06/11
NCAA
Denver
#239
L
73-75
73
75
-2
H09/11
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
68-77
68
77
-9
A13/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
58-62
58
62
-4
A15/11
NCAA
Nobel Knights
#532
W
92-55
92
55
+37
H20/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A22/11
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
81-84 OT
81
84
-3
A29/11
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
W
82-74
82
74
+8
H04/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
L
68-72
68
72
-4
A07/12
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
L
57-67
57
67
-10
A13/12
NCAA
1H
2H
54-21
60-23
38-38
35-37
31-36
37-41
30-35
28-27
54-26
38-29
35-37
43-35
34-36
35-33
40-37
42-37
42-22
26-50
27-29
30-38
145.3Avg total
77.1Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)77.269.6146.8+7.536%
Season at home (4)90.262.0152.2+28.275%
Season away (7)69.774.0143.7-4.314%
Last 10 (10)77.168.2145.3+8.940%
Last 5 (5)73.273.8147.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)68.975.4144.3-6.629%
vs Similar (12)71.168.6139.7+2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)77.665.4143.0+12.355%
This opponent (Cal Poly) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +2.4+2.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +0.5+0.52nd half: +2.4+2.4
Cal PolyMontana State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Cal PolyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pacific Lutheran
#427
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H06/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A09/11
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A13/11
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A15/11
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A21/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A25/11
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H26/11
NCAA
Redlands
#383
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H30/11
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A05/12
NCAA
UC Riverside
#334
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H07/12
NCAA
79.3Avg total
39.0Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.039.378.3-0.250%-
Last 30 at home (12)37.336.273.5+1.250%-
Last 30 away (18)40.241.381.5-1.250%-
Last 10 (10)39.040.379.3-1.350%-
Last 5 (5)39.441.280.6-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)36.940.477.3-3.542%-
vs Similar (12)38.940.679.5-1.733%-
vs Weaker (4)44.833.878.5+11.0100%-
This opponent (Montana State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Montana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwest Indian
#689
W
54-21
54
21
+33
H06/11
NCAA
Denver
#239
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H09/11
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A13/11
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A15/11
NCAA
Nobel Knights
#532
W
54-26
54
26
+28
H20/11
NCAA
Long Beach State
#328
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A22/11
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A29/11
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H04/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
W
42-22
42
22
+20
A07/12
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A13/12
NCAA
70.2Avg total
38.5Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.832.567.3+2.447%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.331.669.9+6.769%-
Last 30 away (17)32.233.165.3-0.929%-
Last 10 (10)38.531.770.2+6.840%-
Last 5 (5)35.632.267.8+3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)31.634.065.6-2.443%-
vs Similar (12)33.433.867.2-0.433%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)38.530.068.5+8.564%-
This opponent (Cal Poly) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Cal Poly wins
0
Montana State wins
No previous meetings.
Cal Polylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25HUC Riverside84-88
05/12/25ACS Fullerton94-91
30/11/25HRedlands87-81
26/11/25HSoutheast Missouri State68-84
25/11/25ANorthern Arizona87-93
21/11/25AUtah Utes92-85
15/11/25AMontana82-90
13/11/25AColorado State79-93
09/11/25ASeattle73-71
06/11/25HPacific Lutheran101-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25AOregon State57-67
07/12/25AOral Roberts68-72
04/12/25HSt. Thomas (Minn.)82-74
29/11/25AUtah State81-84 OT
22/11/25ALong Beach State78-72
20/11/25HNobel Knights92-55
15/11/25ABoise State58-62
13/11/25AStanford68-77
09/11/25HDenver73-75
06/11/25HNorthwest Indian114-44

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cal Poly
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL45%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLLWLW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%50%43%
Points / game82.885.081.6
Allowed / game86.383.088.1
Point differential-3.5+2.0-6.6
Avg total169.1168.0169.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Montana State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL36%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayLWLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %36%75%14%
Points / game77.290.269.7
Allowed / game69.662.074.0
Point differential+7.5+28.2-4.3
Avg total146.8152.2143.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (4)0% (1)0% (3)
Overtime %9%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UC San Diego109190%84.471.6+12.8
2 Hawaii1210283%80.463.1+17.3
3 UC Santa Barbara118373%80.872.9+7.9
4 UC Irvine117464%79.563.9+15.6
5 UC Davis95456%75.375.3+0.0
6 CS Northridge116555%78.278.9-0.7
7 UC Riverside115645%72.876.0-3.2
8 Cal Poly115645%82.886.3-3.5
9 CS Fullerton125742%89.784.7+5.0
10 CSU Bakersfield124833%71.679.8-8.2
11 Long Beach State112918%72.378.2-5.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Northern Colorado119282%87.674.8+12.8
2 Portland State96367%83.169.8+13.3
3 Idaho117464%82.671.2+11.5
4 Montana116555%83.972.5+11.5
5 Idaho State116555%74.568.6+5.9
6 Weber State105550%82.972.6+10.3
7 Northern Arizona104640%73.474.9-1.5
8 Sacramento State104640%76.478.0-1.6
9 Montana State114736%77.269.6+7.5
10 East. Washington102820%78.983.7-4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Cal Poly413980
Montana State404383
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