California Baptist hosts Chicago State on 11 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the model names California Baptist the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win because their season record of 0-2, 65.5 points per game and 83.5 allowed per game places them at 362 in the league, while Chicago State sits at 308 with a 1-2 record, 64.0 points per game and 81.7 allowed. California Baptist's only home game was a 63-71 loss, and their last five games show two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to Oregon State 68-96, North Florida 63-71 and Kansas 60-68. Chicago State's road record is 1-1, their last five games include one win and four losses, and recent results include a 66-54 win over Incarnate Word, a 67-82 loss to South Carolina St and a 59-109 loss to Texas. The teams have met five times, California Baptist winning four times, most recently 74-62 on 27 December 2023. Pythia projects a 81-61 score with a 142.5 total, giving California Baptist a 95% win probability and a 5% chance for Chicago State, a 79% chance the home team covers the -10.5 spread and a 50% chance of the over, with a 1% overtime probability. The game ends with California Baptist's 81 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
California Baptist winLost
95.2%fair 1.05
Best odds1.14
Implied86.0%
Edge+9.2pp
Chicago State winWon
4.8%fair 20.91
Best odds7.00
Implied14.0%
Edge-9.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (California Baptist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5Actual: Over 139.5
Over 139.5
57.4%
@ 2.00+9.8pp
Under 139.5
42.6%
@ 1.90-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
SBO
1.81
Over/Under 144.5 · main lineActual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
45.0%
@ 2.70+3.9pp
Under 144.5
55.0%
@ 1.83-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.57
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.65
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
33.2%
@ 2.77-0.1pp
Under 149.5
66.8%
@ 1.38+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Under
Betano
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
California Baptist total 73Actual: California Baptist under 73
Over 73
80.2%
Under 73
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California Baptist total 77 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 77
Over 77
66.6%
@ 1.86+16.7pp
Under 77
33.4%
@ 1.85-16.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
California Baptist total 81Actual: California Baptist under 81
Over 81
50.3%
Under 81
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 62Actual: Chicago State over 62
Over 62
47.5%
Under 62
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 66 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 66
Over 66
31.6%
@ 1.88-18.0pp
Under 66
68.4%
@ 1.85+18.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Chicago State total 70Actual: Chicago State over 70
Over 70
18.8%
Under 70
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread California Baptist -14.5Actual: Chicago State +14.5
CALI -14.5
67.3%
@ 2.30+24.5pp
CHIC +14.5
32.7%
@ 1.67-24.5pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.23
CHIC
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Spread California Baptist -11.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State +11.5
CALI -11.5
76.2%
@ 1.89+25.6pp
CHIC +11.5
23.8%
@ 2.00-25.6pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
CHIC
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread California Baptist -8.5Actual: Chicago State +8.5
CALI -8.5
83.6%
@ 1.52+22.6pp
CHIC +8.5
16.4%
@ 2.40-22.6pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
CHIC
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
California BaptistChicago State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Chicago State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stonehill
#283
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H13/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A05/03
NCAA
Texas
#2
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A03/11
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#373
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A06/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#115
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H10/11
NCAA
70.3Avg total
33.8Scored
36.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
34.5
38.5
73.1
-4.0
33%
47%
Last 30 at home (11)
33.9
35.1
69.0
-1.2
45%
27%
Last 30 away (19)
34.9
40.5
75.4
-5.6
26%
58%
Last 10 (10)
33.8
36.5
70.3
-2.7
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
34.8
38.2
73.0
-3.4
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)
33.8
38.9
72.7
-5.1
28%
48%
vs Similar (3)
40.3
41.0
81.3
-0.7
67%
67%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)
35.0
30.0
65.0
+5.0
50%
0%
This opponent (California Baptist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Chicago State win
CALI win
no forecast
@ 1.36
CHIC win
no forecast
@ 3.20
2nd half Spread California Baptist -4.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State +4.5
CALI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
CHIC +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
California Baptist 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Chicago State 2nd half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Spread California Baptist -5.5Actual: Chicago State +5.5
CALI -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
CHIC +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Chicago State (regulation)
CALI
no forecast
@ 1.40
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
CHIC
no forecast
@ 3.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
California Baptist -13
72.6%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathon Bet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
-
+29.2pp
Lost
California Baptist -13.5
70.5%
2.18
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
-
-
+28.9pp
Lost
California Baptist -12.5
73.4%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
+27.8pp
Lost
California Baptist -12
75.5%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.85
-
+27.4pp
Lost
California Baptist -11.5
76.2%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
+25.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -11
78.3%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.74
-
+25.3pp
Lost
California Baptist over 73.5
77.9%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
California Baptist over 74.5
74.7%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
California Baptist -10
80.8%
1.70
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
+23.9pp
Lost
California Baptist -10.5
78.9%
1.74
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
+23.8pp
Lost
California Baptist over 75
73.9%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
California Baptist over 75.5
71.4%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
+23.5pp
Lost
California Baptist -9.5
81.3%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
California Baptist -9
83.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
California Baptist -8.5
83.6%
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -8
85.3%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
California Baptist -7.5
85.6%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
California Baptist over 76
70.3%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -7
87.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
California Baptist -6.5
87.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
California Baptist over 72.5
80.7%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
California Baptist -6
89.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
California Baptist -5.5
89.2%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Lost
California Baptist over 70.5
85.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
California Baptist -3.5
92.2%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
California Baptist -5
90.7%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
California Baptist -4.5
90.8%
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
California Baptist -4
92.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
California Baptist (regulation)
94.4%
1.14
Marathon Bet
1.14
Betano
1.14
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Lost
California Baptist over 71.5
83.4%
1.33
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Chicago State under 70.5
81.7%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
+10.6pp
Lost
Chicago State under 71.5
84.2%
1.23
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
California Baptist win
95.2%
1.12
Marathon Bet
1.14
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+9.2pp
Lost
Chicago State under 67.5
72.9%
1.44
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Chicago State under 69.5
79.0%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Over 133.5
71.2%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
73.3%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 133
72.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Over 131.5
75.3%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Over 134
70.5%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Chicago State under 73.5
88.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Over 132
74.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Chicago State under 72.5
86.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Chicago State under 68.5
76.1%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Over 128.5
80.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 151.5
71.2%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Chicago State under 78.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Chicago State under 76.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
Chicago State under 80.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Chicago State under 74.5
90.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Over 123.5
88.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
California Baptist under 92.5
87.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Chicago State over 52.5
81.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Under 158.5
83.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Chicago State over 53.5
78.7%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Chicago State over 54.5
75.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
California Baptist under 90.5
83.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Chicago State over 55.5
72.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Under 153.5
75.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
California Baptist under 88.5
77.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
California Baptist under 86.5
71.0%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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