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Cincinnati vs American University Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 79-53
35-33 44-20
Position#107
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Cincinnati 🏆
USA
Vs
84%
16%
■ CINC 84%■ AMER 16%
Pythia win probability
Projected 77-65
Projected total 141.5
American University
USA
Position#314
Record-
FormWWLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The NCAA clash on 2 November 2026 pits Cincinnati against American University, with the model designating Cincinnati as the clear favourite thanks to an 84% chance of victory and a projected 77-65 win that reflects their dominant offensive output compared with the 65 points expected for the Eagles. Cincinnati's recent form shows a 3-2 record over their last five games, highlighted by a narrow 65-66 loss to UCF Knights away on 11 March 2026 and a 73-66 home win over Utah Utes on 10 March 2026, while American University struggles with a 2-3 record, including defeats to Boston University both away and at home and a 73-78 loss to Lehigh at home. The Pythia model assigns an 84% probability to a Cincinnati win, 16% to an American win, and projects a total of 141.5 points, with a 13% chance that Cincinnati covers the -24.5 spread and a 31% chance of the over on the 149.5 total. The game carries a 3% overtime probability, and the final projected score of 77-65 underscores Cincinnati's superior scoring efficiency. The Eagles' recent loss to Boston University away on 5 March 2026 remains a stark reminder of their defensive challenges.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cincinnati winWon
84.4%fair 1.18
Best odds1.02
Implied95.1%
Edge-10.7pp
American University winLost
15.6%fair 6.41
Best odds26.00
Implied4.9%
Edge+10.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CincinnatiUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCF Knights
#92
W
92-72
92
72
+20
H08/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
91-62
91
62
+29
A12/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
84-68
84
68
+16
A21/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
68-80
68
80
-12
A25/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
91-68
91
68
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
90-68
90
68
+22
H04/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
63-73
63
73
-10
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
73-66
73
66
+7
H10/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
65-66 OT
65
66
-1
A11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-28
52-44
53-31
38-31
37-34
32-31
36-34
48-34
34-42
34-38
51-33
40-35
43-31
47-37
29-32
34-41
29-20
44-46
27-26
31-32
147.4Avg total
78.6Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.668.8147.4+9.870%
Last 5 (5)76.468.2144.6+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)62.274.7136.8-12.517%
vs Similar (12)72.467.3139.8+5.142%
vs Weaker (12)77.465.4142.8+12.075%
American UniversityUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lafayette
#317
L
65-67
65
67
-2
H31/01
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H05/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A07/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
82-90
82
90
-8
A12/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
75-57
75
57
+18
A19/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A22/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H26/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
65-68
65
68
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
73-75
73
75
-2
A06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-27
33-40
29-24
30-36
35-39
38-43
34-47
48-43
36-27
39-36
36-30
39-27
34-31
41-30
30-33
43-45
23-38
42-30
36-40
37-35
141.6Avg total
71.5Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.570.1141.6+1.430%
Last 5 (5)72.267.8140.0+4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.888.0155.8-20.220%
vs Similar (8)69.566.6136.1+2.950%
vs Weaker (16)76.368.2144.5+8.156%
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
42.4%
@ 1.45-22.1pp
Under 144.5
57.6%
@ 2.60+22.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
30.9%
@ 1.90-20.0pp
Under 149.5
69.1%
@ 1.98+20.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
21.1%
@ 2.60-16.6pp
Under 154.5
78.9%
@ 1.53+16.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Cincinnati total 82.5Actual: Cincinnati under 82.5
Over 82.5
27.3%
@ 1.36-39.2pp
Under 82.5
72.7%
@ 2.70+39.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.70
Cincinnati total 86.5 · main lineActual: Cincinnati under 86.5
Over 86.5
15.7%
@ 1.85-35.1pp
Under 86.5
84.3%
@ 1.95+35.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Cincinnati total 90.5Actual: Cincinnati under 90.5
Over 90.5
8.0%
@ 2.37-30.3pp
Under 90.5
92.0%
@ 1.47+30.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47
American University total 59.5Actual: American University under 59.5
Over 59.5
70.3%
@ 1.42+6.4pp
Under 59.5
29.7%
@ 2.52-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.52
American University total 63.5 · main lineActual: American University under 63.5
Over 63.5
55.4%
@ 1.90+5.4pp
Under 63.5
44.6%
@ 1.85-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
American University total 67.5Actual: American University under 67.5
Over 67.5
39.8%
@ 2.70+6.3pp
Under 67.5
60.2%
@ 1.36-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Cincinnati -27.5Actual: American University +27.5
CINC -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
AMER +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
CINC
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.25
AMER
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.52
Spread Cincinnati -24.5 · main lineActual: Cincinnati -24.5
CINC -24.5
12.8%
@ 1.95-37.2pp
AMER +24.5
87.2%
@ 1.90+37.2pp
Best 5 market prices
CINC
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
AMER
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
Spread Cincinnati -21.5Actual: Cincinnati -21.5
CINC -21.5
18.8%
@ 1.60-39.5pp
AMER +21.5
81.2%
@ 2.25+39.5pp
Best 5 market prices
CINC
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
AMER
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: -1.1-1.12nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +2.5+2.5
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: -1.1-1.12nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +2.5+2.5
CincinnatiAmerican University
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
CincinnatiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCF Knights
#92
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H08/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
53-31
53
31
+22
A12/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H15/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A25/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H28/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H04/03
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
29-20
29
20
+9
H10/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
27-26
27
26
+1
A11/03
NCAA
69.0Avg total
37.9Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)34.630.965.5+3.760%23%
Last 30 at home (17)36.928.565.4+8.588%18%
Last 30 away (13)31.634.165.7-2.523%31%
Last 10 (10)37.931.169.0+6.880%40%
Last 5 (5)35.828.464.2+7.480%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)30.731.562.2-0.850%17%
vs Similar (12)33.030.663.6+2.458%17%
vs Weaker (12)38.230.969.2+7.367%33%
American UniversityLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lafayette
#317
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H31/01
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H05/02
NCAA
Navy
#24
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A07/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A12/02
NCAA
Army
#318
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Bucknell
#339
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A19/02
NCAA
Lafayette
#317
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A22/02
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H26/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H28/02
NCAA
Boston University
#211
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A06/03
NCAA
66.1Avg total
32.5Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)34.733.167.7+1.653%33%
Last 30 at home (16)35.329.865.1+5.562%31%
Last 30 away (14)33.936.870.7-2.943%36%
Last 10 (10)32.533.666.1-1.150%30%
Last 5 (5)31.834.466.2-2.640%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.040.072.0-8.020%60%
vs Similar (8)31.232.964.1-1.638%25%
vs Weaker (16)36.031.367.3+4.769%25%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Cincinnati win
CINC win
no forecast
@ 1.05
AMER win
no forecast
@ 10.00
1st half Spread Cincinnati -13.5 · main lineActual: American University +13.5
CINC -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
AMER +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Cincinnati 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Cincinnati under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
American University 1st half total 29 · main lineActual: American University over 29
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Cincinnati -14.5Actual: American University +14.5
CINC -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
AMER +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Cincinnati -12.5Actual: American University +12.5
CINC -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
AMER +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.30
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Cincinnati -15.5Actual: American University +15.5
CINC -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
AMER +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Cincinnati -11.5Actual: American University +11.5
CINC -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
AMER +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Cincinnati -16.5Actual: American University +16.5
CINC -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
AMER +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Cincinnati -10.5Actual: American University +10.5
CINC -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
AMER +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.80
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Cincinnati (regulation)
CINC
no forecast
@ 1.07
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
AMER
no forecast
@ 13.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
CINC win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
AMER win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CINC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
American University +1872.6%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+43.1ppLost
American University +1975.5%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+42.5ppLost
American University +2078.2%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+42.4ppLost
American University +2180.7%2.40
Bet365
2.40		----+41.9ppLost
American University +2283.0%2.20
Bet365
2.20		----+40.9ppLost
American University +19.576.2%2.61
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.52		---+40.8ppLost
American University +17.570.5%3.10
Bet365
3.25
Betano
2.95		---+40.6ppLost
American University +18.573.4%2.80
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.70		---+40.4ppLost
American University +20.578.8%2.41
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32		---+40.2ppLost
American University +21.581.2%2.21
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18		---+39.5ppLost
Cincinnati under 82.572.7%2.70
Betano
2.70		----+39.2ppWon
American University +2385.1%2.00
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.96		---+38.9ppLost
Cincinnati under 83.575.9%2.45
Betano
2.45		----+38.9ppWon
American University +22.583.4%2.09
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.07		--+38.7ppLost
Cincinnati under 84.578.9%2.25
Betano
2.25		----+38.6ppWon
American University +2487.0%1.90
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.84		---+37.8ppLost
American University +24.587.2%1.83
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.78		+37.2ppLost
American University +23.585.4%1.92
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.90
BetVictor
1.80		+37.0ppLost
American University +2588.6%1.80
Bet365
1.80		----+36.6ppLost
Cincinnati under 8786.2%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+36.2ppWon
Cincinnati under 85.581.7%1.99
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91		---+35.7ppWon
Cincinnati under 87.586.6%1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80		--+35.5ppWon
Cincinnati under 86.584.3%1.89
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		-+35.1ppWon
Cincinnati under 88.588.6%1.70
Betano
1.70		----+33.9ppWon
Cincinnati under 8683.9%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+33.9ppWon
Cincinnati under 89.590.4%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+32.0ppWon
Cincinnati under 90.592.0%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+30.3ppWon
Cincinnati under 91.593.4%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+28.5ppWon
Under 150.571.2%1.82
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.74		+20.8ppWon
Under 151.573.2%1.73
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.66		-+19.9ppWon
Under 15070.6%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.80		---+19.8ppWon
Under 15172.7%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.79
Bet365
1.68		---+19.3ppWon
Under 152.575.2%1.64
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.58		--+18.4ppWon
Under 15274.7%1.66
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.62		---+17.7ppWon
Under 153.577.1%1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52		---+17.6ppWon
Under 15376.6%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+16.9ppWon
Under 154.578.9%1.49
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45		---+16.6ppWon
Under 155.580.6%1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40		---+16.1ppWon
Under 15478.5%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+16.0ppWon
Under 15580.2%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+15.3ppWon
Under 156.582.2%1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34		---+15.0ppWon
Under 157.583.7%1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.30		---+14.4ppWon
Under 15681.9%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+14.3ppWon
Under 15783.4%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+13.5ppWon
American University over 56.579.7%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+11.0ppLost
American University over 57.576.8%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+7.6ppLost
American University over 59.570.3%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+6.4ppLost
American University over 58.573.7%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+6.0ppLost
Cincinnati (regulation)82.5%1.02
Betano
1.02		-----7.1ppWon
Cincinnati win84.4%1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01		----10.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Cincinnati wins
0
American University wins
No previous meetings.
Cincinnatilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26AUCF Knights65-66 OT
10/03/26HUtah Utes73-66
07/03/26ATCU63-73
04/03/26HBrigham Young90-68
28/02/26HOklahoma State91-68
25/02/26ATexas Tech68-80
21/02/26AKansas84-68
15/02/26HUtah Utes69-65
12/02/26AKansas State91-62
08/02/26HUCF Knights92-72
American Universitylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26ABoston University73-75
28/02/26HBoston University65-68
26/02/26HLehigh73-78
22/02/26ALafayette75-61
19/02/26ABucknell75-57
14/02/26HArmy75-63
12/02/26ALehigh82-90
07/02/26ANavy73-82
05/02/26HBucknell59-60
31/01/26HLafayette65-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cincinnati
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 149.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
American University
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 149.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference: no games played yet this season.
Patriot League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Loyola Maryland1010%58.080.0-22.0
2 Army1010%50.084.0-34.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Cincinnati354479
American University332053
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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