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TCU vs Cincinnati Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 73-63
0-0 32-29 0-0 41-34
Position#77
Record20-10
FormLWWWW
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game71.6
TCU 🏆
USA
vs
Cincinnati
USA
Position#161
Record17-13
FormWWLWW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game67.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · TCU v Cincinnati
07 Mar 2026
TCU73
CINC63
24 Feb 2024
TCU75
CINC57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

TCU winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cincinnati winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TCUUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#18
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H29/01
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
61-87
61
87
-26
A01/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
W
62-55
62
55
+7
H11/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
95-92 OT
95
92
+3
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
71-82
71
82
-11
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
90-78
90
78
+12
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
77-68
77
68
+9
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
73-65
73
65
+8
A04/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
30-43
0-0
40-36
0-0
25-38
0-0
36-49
0-0
42-46
0-0
42-36
0-0
29-30
0-0
33-25
0-0
39-34
0-0
45-50
0-0
28-42
0-0
43-40
0-0
30-25
0-0
30-29
0-0
33-30
0-0
57-48
0-0
41-38
0-0
36-30
0-0
36-39
0-0
37-26
148.5Avg total
74.3Scored
74.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)78.171.6149.7+6.567%
Season at home (19)77.466.7144.2+10.774%
Season away (11)79.380.1159.4-0.855%
Last 10 (10)74.374.2148.5+0.170%
Last 5 (5)74.269.4143.6+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)70.473.4143.8-3.040%
vs Similar ◀ (11)76.573.5150.1+3.073%
vs Weaker (14)82.169.5151.6+12.671%
This opponent (Cincinnati) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CincinnatiUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baylor
#200
W
67-57
67
57
+10
H28/01
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
54-76
54
76
-22
A31/01
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
L
54-59
54
59
-5
H06/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
92-72
92
72
+20
H08/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
91-62
91
62
+29
A12/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H15/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
84-68
84
68
+16
A21/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
68-80
68
80
-12
A25/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
91-68
91
68
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
90-68
90
68
+22
H04/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-28
0-0
32-29
0-0
20-32
0-0
34-44
0-0
30-20
0-0
24-39
0-0
40-28
0-0
52-44
0-0
53-31
0-0
38-31
0-0
37-34
0-0
32-31
0-0
36-34
0-0
48-34
0-0
34-42
0-0
34-38
0-0
51-33
0-0
40-35
0-0
43-31
0-0
47-37
143.5Avg total
76.0Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)73.767.5141.2+6.257%
Season at home (19)76.863.9140.7+12.979%
Season away (11)68.473.7142.1-5.418%
Last 10 (10)76.067.5143.5+8.570%
Last 5 (5)80.469.8150.2+10.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)62.274.7136.8-12.517%
vs Similar ◀ (11)74.166.5140.5+7.655%
vs Weaker (13)78.865.1143.8+13.777%
This opponent (TCU) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: +6.6+6.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +1.9+1.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: +6.6+6.6Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +1.9+1.9
TCUCincinnati
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TCULast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston
#18
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H29/01
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A01/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H07/02
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H11/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A14/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A18/02
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H25/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A04/03
NCAA
69.8Avg total
33.3Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.935.671.4+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.734.170.8+2.658%-
Last 30 away (11)34.538.172.5-3.627%-
Last 10 (10)33.336.569.8-3.240%-
Last 5 (5)33.634.868.4-1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)32.038.670.6-6.620%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)34.635.269.8-0.545%-
vs Weaker (14)38.234.873.0+3.457%-
This opponent (Cincinnati) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CincinnatiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baylor
#200
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H28/01
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
20-32
20
32
-12
A31/01
NCAA
West Virginia
#147
W
30-20
30
20
+10
H06/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H08/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
53-31
53
31
+22
A12/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H15/02
NCAA
Kansas
#58
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A21/02
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A25/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H28/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H04/03
NCAA
69.2Avg total
37.9Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.831.166.9+4.763%-
Last 30 at home (19)37.928.866.7+9.189%-
Last 30 away (11)32.335.067.3-2.718%-
Last 10 (10)37.931.369.2+6.680%-
Last 5 (5)40.234.875.0+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)30.731.562.2-0.850%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)33.930.564.4+3.564%-
vs Weaker (13)39.831.571.3+8.469%-
This opponent (TCU) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
TCU wins
2
Cincinnati wins
DateGameScore
22/02/25Cincinnati v TCU75-63
24/02/24TCU v Cincinnati75-57
17/01/24Cincinnati v TCU81-77 OT
TCUlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26ATexas Tech73-65
28/02/26AKansas State77-68
25/02/26HArizona State90-78
21/02/26HWest Virginia60-54
18/02/26AUCF Knights71-82
14/02/26AOklahoma State95-92 OT
11/02/26HIowa State62-55
07/02/26HKansas State84-82
01/02/26AColorado61-87
29/01/26HHouston70-79
Cincinnatilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/26HBrigham Young90-68
28/02/26HOklahoma State91-68
25/02/26ATexas Tech68-80
21/02/26AKansas84-68
15/02/26HUtah Utes69-65
12/02/26AKansas State91-62
08/02/26HUCF Knights92-72
06/02/26HWest Virginia54-59
31/01/26AHouston54-76
28/01/26HBaylor67-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

TCU
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW67%
HomeLWWWW74%
AwayLWLWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301911
Win %67%74%55%
Points / game78.177.479.3
Allowed / game71.666.780.1
Point differential+6.5+10.7-0.8
Avg total149.7144.2159.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%42%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)50% (6)50% (4)
Overtime %10%5%18%
Cincinnati
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW57%
HomeLWWWW79%
AwayLLWWL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301911
Win %57%79%18%
Points / game73.776.868.4
Allowed / game67.563.973.7
Point differential+6.2+12.9-5.4
Avg total141.2140.7142.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%63%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)50% (2)0% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arizona3028293%86.668.2+18.4
2 Houston3126584%77.662.7+14.9
3 Iowa State3023777%81.166.3+14.8
4 Texas Tech3022873%81.572.2+9.2
5 Kansas3021970%75.668.8+6.8
6 Brigham Young30201067%84.475.8+8.6
7 TCU30201067%78.171.6+6.5
8 UCF Knights30201067%82.278.8+3.4
9 West Virginia31181358%69.964.6+5.2
10 Oklahoma State31181358%83.982.5+1.4
11 Cincinnati30171357%73.767.5+6.2
12 Colorado30171357%79.978.7+1.2
13 Arizona State30161453%77.677.6+0.0
14 Baylor30151550%82.177.0+5.0
15 Kansas State30121840%79.080.3-1.3
16 Utah Utes30102033%74.678.6-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
TCU03204173
Cincinnati02903463
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