Cincinnati hosts Wisc. Green Bay on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Cincinnati the favourite, rating them 88% to win largely because their single-game season record of 1-0 is accompanied by a 79.0 points per game average against only 53.0 allowed, placing them 107th in the league, while Green Bay, also 1-0, averages 94.0 points per game but allows 51.0, a 47th league position. Cincinnati's lone home game was a 79-53 victory over American University, and their last five games show three wins and two losses; Green Bay's last five also feature three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 94-51 win over Lawrence University. The two teams have met once before, with Cincinnati winning that encounter. Pythia projects a 79-66 score, 144.7 total points, and gives Cincinnati an 88% chance to win and a 12% chance for Green Bay; the home line is -24.5 with a 17% probability of covering, and the total is 150.5 with a 36% chance of the over, while a 3% overtime probability is noted. The game will end with Cincinnati holding the 79-point mark.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cincinnati winWon
88.2%fair 1.13
Best odds1.01
Implied95.6%
Edge-7.4pp
Wisc. Green Bay winLost
11.8%fair 8.45
Best odds34.00
Implied4.4%
Edge+7.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Cincinnati) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148Actual: Under 148
Over 148
41.5%
@ 1.43-23.5pp
Under 148
58.5%
@ 2.65+23.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 153 · main lineActual: Under 153
Over 153
29.8%
@ 1.90-20.4pp
Under 153
70.2%
@ 1.94+20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 158Actual: Under 158
Over 158
20.0%
@ 2.50-17.5pp
Under 158
80.0%
@ 1.50+17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Cincinnati total 83.5Actual: Cincinnati under 83.5
Over 83.5
32.9%
@ 1.36-35.3pp
Under 83.5
67.1%
@ 2.90+35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.87
Cincinnati total 87.5 · main lineActual: Cincinnati under 87.5
Over 87.5
19.9%
@ 1.85-30.1pp
Under 87.5
80.1%
@ 2.05+30.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cincinnati total 91.5Actual: Cincinnati under 91.5
Over 91.5
10.6%
@ 2.40-28.5pp
Under 91.5
89.4%
@ 1.55+28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Wisc. Green Bay total 60.5Actual: Wisc. Green Bay over 60.5
Over 60.5
68.9%
@ 1.50+4.0pp
Under 60.5
31.1%
@ 2.65-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.50
Wisc. Green Bay total 64.5 · main lineActual: Wisc. Green Bay under 64.5
Over 64.5
53.8%
@ 1.91+4.6pp
Under 64.5
46.2%
@ 1.85-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Wisc. Green Bay total 68.5Actual: Wisc. Green Bay under 68.5
Over 68.5
38.1%
@ 3.05+4.9pp
Under 68.5
61.9%
@ 1.42-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Cincinnati -27.5Actual: Wisc. Green Bay +27.5
CINC -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
WISC +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
CINC
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.15
WISC
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.57
Spread Cincinnati -24.5 · main lineActual: Wisc. Green Bay +24.5
CINC -24.5
16.7%
@ 1.89-33.8pp
WISC +24.5
83.3%
@ 2.00+33.8pp
Best 5 market prices
CINC
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
BetVictor
1.80
WISC
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Cincinnati -21.5Actual: Wisc. Green Bay +21.5
CINC -21.5
23.9%
@ 1.80-34.7pp
WISC +21.5
76.1%
@ 2.35+34.7pp
Best 5 market prices
CINC
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
WISC
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22
1xBet
1.91
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
CincinnatiWisc. Green Bay
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wisc. Green Bay +20
72.5%
2.72
Bet365
2.72
-
-
-
-
+38.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +21
75.4%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+37.9pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +22
78.1%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +23
80.6%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +22.5
78.7%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
1.78
-
+37.4pp
Won
Cincinnati under 85.5
74.0%
2.48
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.40
-
-
+36.7pp
Won
Cincinnati under 86.5
77.2%
2.22
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +20.5
73.3%
2.50
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+36.2pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +19.5
70.3%
2.68
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +23.5
81.1%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
-
+35.9pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +24
82.9%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
-
+35.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +21.5
76.1%
2.16
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.22
1xBet
1.91
-
-
+34.7pp
Won
Cincinnati under 89
84.9%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+34.6pp
Won
Cincinnati under 84.5
70.6%
2.54
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +24.5
83.3%
1.91
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
+33.8pp
Won
Cincinnati under 89.5
85.2%
1.81
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
+33.5pp
Won
Cincinnati under 88.5
82.8%
1.86
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
-
+33.1pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay +25
85.0%
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
-
-
+32.6pp
Won
Cincinnati under 88
82.3%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+32.3pp
Won
Cincinnati under 87.5
80.1%
1.90
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
-
+30.1pp
Won
Cincinnati under 91.5
89.4%
1.53
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Cincinnati under 90.5
87.4%
1.58
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Cincinnati under 93.5
92.6%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Won
Cincinnati under 92.5
91.1%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
Cincinnati under 94.5
93.9%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Cincinnati under 95.5
95.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
Under 153
70.2%
1.90
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Under 154
72.3%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Under 155.5
74.9%
1.67
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.64
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Under 153.5
70.8%
1.80
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+19.6pp
Won
Under 155
74.3%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.67
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Under 156
76.3%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Under 154.5
72.9%
1.75
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.71
-
+19.3pp
Won
Under 156.5
76.8%
1.60
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Under 157.5
78.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Under 157
78.2%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
80.3%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Under 158
80.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Cincinnati under 97.5
96.7%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
81.9%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Under 159
81.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Cincinnati under 96.5
95.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
83.5%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Cincinnati under 98.5
97.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Under 160
83.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Under 161
84.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Cincinnati under 99.5
97.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
84.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
87.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 162.5
86.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
92.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
91.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 58.5
75.6%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
95.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 178.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 57.5
78.6%
1.26
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 56.5
81.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 54.5
86.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 53.5
88.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 55.5
84.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay over 59.5
72.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 80.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 78.5
89.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 79.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Cincinnati (regulation)
86.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 76.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 77.5
87.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 74.5
81.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 75.5
83.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 72.5
75.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 73.5
78.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
85.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Cincinnati win
88.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 128.5
84.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Cincinnati over 69.5
83.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Wisc. Green Bay under 71.5
72.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Cincinnati over 70.5
80.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
77.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
Cincinnati over 71.5
78.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Cincinnati -4.5
79.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
75.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
Cincinnati over 72.5
74.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Cincinnati over 73.5
71.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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