Coastal Carolina hosts USC Upstate on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Coastal Carolina as the clear favourite, assigning a 90% chance of victory and projecting a 82-67 win; the model's confidence stems from Coastal Carolina's 0-2 season record, 61.0 points per game and 92.0 points allowed per game, while USC Upstate also sits at 0-2 but averages 70.0 points per game and allows 80.5, giving Coastal a statistical edge. Coastal's single home game was a 70-71 loss at home, and its last five games include two wins and three losses, whereas USC Upstate's lone road game ended 70-83, and its last five games feature one win and four losses. The teams have met four times, splitting the series 2-2, with USC Upstate's most recent win 85-78 on 3 December 2025. Pythia assigns a 68% probability that Coastal will cover the -9.5 spread and a 47% chance of an over on the 150.5 total, with a 2% overtime likelihood; the projected total of 149.3 points sits just below the over line, and Coastal's projected 82 points versus USC Upstate's 67 suggest a decisive home performance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Coastal Carolina winWon
89.8%fair 1.11
Best odds1.20
Implied81.9%
Edge+7.9pp
USC Upstate winLost
10.2%fair 9.84
Best odds5.50
Implied18.1%
Edge-7.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Coastal Carolina -7
76.1%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -8
73.0%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -7.5
73.9%
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -6.5
76.8%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -5
81.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -6
78.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -5.5
79.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -4
84.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -4.5
82.1%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -2.5
86.3%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -3.5
84.4%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -2
88.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -8.5
70.8%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
+12.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina (regulation)
88.4%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Marathon Bet
1.17
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -3
86.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Coastal Carolina -1.5
88.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
USC Upstate under 75.5
79.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
USC Upstate under 73.5
73.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Coastal Carolina over 76.5
71.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 74.5
77.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
USC Upstate under 77.5
84.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Coastal Carolina win
89.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.17
WilliamHill
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
+7.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina over 75.5
74.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina over 72.5
83.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina +6.5
95.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Coastal Carolina +10.5
97.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
USC Upstate under 74.5
76.4%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina over 73.5
80.4%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.8%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0pp
-
USC Upstate under 76.5
81.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
USC Upstate under 78.5
86.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
USC Upstate under 80.5
90.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
USC Upstate under 79.5
88.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 97.5
94.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 99.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 98.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 96.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 170.5
90.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 95.5
91.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 158
71.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
USC Upstate over 52.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
USC Upstate over 51.5
94.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
75.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
USC Upstate over 53.5
91.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 125.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina under 94.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Under 165.5
84.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 93.5
87.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
USC Upstate over 54.5
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 55.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 130.5
87.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina under 92.5
85.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 91.5
83.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
USC Upstate over 56.5
85.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 57.5
83.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Lost
Coastal Carolina under 90.5
80.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 89.5
77.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 88.5
74.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Coastal Carolina under 87.5
71.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 58.5
80.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 60.5
74.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 59.5
77.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate over 61.5
71.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate +24.5
80.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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