PythiaBasketballBETA
NBB· Ginasio Wlamir Marques
On 17 November 2026 the NBB will see Corinthians Paulista host Paulistano in a clash where the model favours the home side, assigning a 77% chance of victory largely because Corinthians' season average of 79.4 points per game outpaces Paulistano's 70.3, and their 2-3 record sits lower in the standings than Paulistano's 3-3. Corinthians have gone 1-0 at home, scoring 78.0 and allowing only 48.0, while Paulistano have struggled on the road, 1-3 with 68.5 points for and 75.2 against. The last five games for each team mirror their overall form, 2-3 for both, and recent results show Corinthians beating Cearense 75-68 and Franca 78-48, whereas Paulistano lost to Cearense 58-65 and Unifacisa 63-71. Their head-to-head record is even, 5-5, with Paulistano's last win 84-80 on 9 April. Pythia projects a 84-76 score, a 160.1 total, and a 4% chance of overtime. The model gives Corinthians a 77% probability of covering the spread, while Paulistano has a 23% chance of winning outright. The game will hinge on whether Corinthians can maintain their home advantage and keep Paulistano's offense in check.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 79.4 | 77.6 | 157.0 | +1.8 | 40% |
| Season at home (1) | 78.0 | 48.0 | 126.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 79.8 | 85.0 | 164.8 | -5.2 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.9 | 81.8 | 162.7 | -0.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.4 | 77.6 | 157.0 | +1.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 80.0 | 85.4 | 165.4 | -5.4 | 29% |
| vs Similar (17) | 86.6 | 82.4 | 169.1 | +4.2 | 65% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 90.0 | 80.2 | 170.2 | +9.8 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 70.3 | 73.0 | 143.3 | -2.7 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 74.0 | 68.5 | 142.5 | +5.5 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 68.5 | 75.2 | 143.8 | -6.8 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 72.7 | 76.1 | 148.8 | -3.4 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 68.4 | 72.8 | 141.2 | -4.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 75.0 | 80.9 | 155.9 | -5.9 | 25% |
| vs Similar (11) | 84.3 | 82.1 | 166.4 | +2.2 | 73% |
| vs Weaker (11) | 84.0 | 74.5 | 158.5 | +9.5 | 73% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.3 | 41.8 | 84.1 | +0.5 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 43.8 | 40.6 | 84.4 | +3.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 41.0 | 42.8 | 83.8 | -1.8 | 56% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.5 | 43.1 | 83.6 | -2.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 37.0 | 76.4 | +2.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 40.6 | 49.7 | 90.3 | -9.1 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 43.1 | 40.1 | 83.1 | +3.0 | 59% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 42.2 | 37.5 | 79.7 | +4.7 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.1 | 38.2 | 79.3 | +2.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 44.0 | 37.3 | 81.3 | +6.7 | 79% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 38.6 | 39.1 | 77.6 | -0.5 | 44% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.8 | 36.3 | 74.1 | +1.5 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.0 | 36.6 | 74.6 | +1.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 39.0 | 39.2 | 78.2 | -0.2 | 38% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 42.5 | 38.6 | 81.1 | +3.8 | 64% | - |
| vs Weaker (11) | 41.3 | 37.1 | 78.4 | +4.2 | 73% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 36.2 | 19.3 | 49.8% | 38.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.4 | 10.3 | 31.6% | 30.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.4 | 14.5 | 71.3% | 14.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 34.4 | 16.9 | 49.8% | 33.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.3 | 10.2 | 31.6% | 30.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.1 | 11.9 | 71.3% | 11.9 |
Corinthians Paulista
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 | Corinthians Paulista v Paulistano | 80-84 |
| 23/12/25 | Paulistano v Corinthians Paulista | 86-81 |
| 11/02/25 | Corinthians Paulista v Paulistano | 74-65 |
| 05/11/24 | Paulistano v Corinthians Paulista | 69-75 |
| 22/04/24 | Paulistano v Corinthians Paulista | 77-68 |
| 18/04/24 | Corinthians Paulista v Paulistano | 65-83 |
| 02/03/24 | Paulistano v Corinthians Paulista | 71-81 |
| 17/11/23 | Corinthians Paulista v Paulistano | 71-79 |
| 31/01/23 | Paulistano v Corinthians Paulista | 81-82 |
| 22/10/22 | Corinthians Paulista v Paulistano | 61-57 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 40% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLLW | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Win % | 40% | 100% | 25% |
| Points / game | 79.4 | 78.0 | 79.8 |
| Allowed / game | 77.6 | 48.0 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | +1.8 | +30.0 | -5.2 |
| Avg total | 157.0 | 126.0 | 164.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | WLLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 25% |
| Points / game | 70.3 | 74.0 | 68.5 |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 68.5 | 75.2 |
| Point differential | -2.7 | +5.5 | -6.8 |
| Avg total | 143.3 | 142.5 | 143.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minas | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 65.7 | +20.6 |
| 2 |  Mogi | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 81.5 | 73.7 | +7.8 |
| 3 |  Pinheiros | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 84.4 | 72.3 | +12.1 |
| 4 |  Flamengo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 80.9 | 73.4 | +7.4 |
| 5 |  Unifacisa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 79.4 | 75.1 | +4.3 |
| 6 |  Franca | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 78.3 | 73.3 | +5.0 |
| 7 |  Brasilia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 80.6 | 79.8 | +0.9 |
| 8 |  Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.2 | 78.8 | -2.7 |
| 9 | Paulistano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 70.3 | 73.0 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  Uniao Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 73.2 | 76.8 | -3.7 |
| 11 |  Bauru | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.7 | 77.7 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Corinthians Paulista | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 79.4 | 77.6 | +1.8 |
| 13 |  Botafogo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 80.0 | 83.0 | -3.0 |
| 14 |  Sao Jose | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 80.5 | 84.5 | -4.0 |
| 15 |  Osasco | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 79.5 | 86.0 | -6.5 |
| 16 |  Pato | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 73.3 | 84.7 | -11.3 |
| 17 |  Cearense | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 66.0 | 84.8 | -18.8 |
| 18 |  Caxias do Sul | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 62.7 | 79.7 | -17.0 |
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