Creighton faces UMKC on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Creighton as the clear favourite because it holds a 92% chance of winning and is projected to outscore UMKC 83-67, a margin that reflects its superior season numbers. Creighton is 1-4 in its last five games, including a 76-59 away win over Butler and a 61-72 loss to Seton Hall, while UMKC is 0-5, having fallen 62-84 to Oral Roberts, 70-94 to Oral Roberts again, and 59-73 to South Dakota State. In their only prior meeting, Creighton beat UMKC 79-56 on 16 November 2024, giving the home side a historical edge. The Pythia model gives Creighton a 92% probability of victory and a 8% chance for UMKC, with a projected total of 149.4 points; the over/under line is 153.5, and the model assigns a 40% probability that the over will be hit. The game carries a 2% chance of overtime. The projected score of 83-67 underscores Creighton's dominance and suggests the matchup will likely stay within the predicted range.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Creighton winWon
91.9%fair 1.09
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge-2.6pp
UMKC winLost
8.1%fair 12.35
Best odds34.00
Implied5.5%
Edge+2.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Creighton) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
52.0%
@ 1.39-15.7pp
Under 148.5
48.0%
@ 3.00+15.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
39.8%
@ 1.85-15.3pp
Under 153.5
60.2%
@ 2.10+15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Be
1.65
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Be
2.03
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
28.6%
@ 2.22-13.4pp
Under 158.5
71.4%
@ 1.60+13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
📊 3. Team Totals
Creighton total 86Actual: Creighton under 86
Over 86
36.8%
Under 86
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Creighton total 90 · main lineActual: Creighton under 90
Over 90
22.5%
@ 1.85-27.8pp
Under 90
77.5%
@ 1.87+27.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Creighton total 93.5Actual: Creighton under 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.47
UMKC total 60.5Actual: UMKC over 60.5
Over 60.5
72.7%
@ 1.45+8.5pp
Under 60.5
27.3%
@ 2.62-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
UMKC total 64.5 · main lineActual: UMKC under 64.5
Over 64.5
58.0%
@ 1.95+9.5pp
Under 64.5
42.0%
@ 1.83-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
UMKC total 68.5Actual: UMKC under 68.5
Over 68.5
42.1%
@ 3.15+10.4pp
Under 68.5
57.9%
@ 1.37-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Creighton -30Actual: UMKC +30
CREI -30
no forecast
@ 2.35
UMKC +30
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
CREI
Bet365
2.35
UMKC
Bet365
1.54
Spread Creighton -27 · main lineActual: UMKC +27
CREI -27
no forecast
@ 1.94
UMKC +27
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
CREI
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.85
UMKC
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Spread Creighton -24Actual: UMKC +24
CREI -24
23.6%
@ 1.60-34.3pp
UMKC +24
76.4%
@ 2.20+34.3pp
Best 5 market prices
CREI
Bet365
1.60
UMKC
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
CreightonUMKC
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UMKC +22
70.6%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+34.8pp
Won
UMKC +22.5
71.5%
2.50
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Won
UMKC +24
76.4%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Won
UMKC +23.5
74.3%
2.30
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Won
UMKC +25
79.1%
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
-
+34.0pp
Won
UMKC +23
73.6%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+34.0pp
Won
UMKC +24.5
77.1%
2.14
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+33.8pp
Won
Creighton under 89.5
75.1%
2.15
Betano
2.15
-
-
-
-
+32.2pp
Won
Creighton under 88.5
71.8%
2.25
Betano
2.25
-
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
Creighton under 91.5
81.1%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+31.3pp
Won
Creighton under 91
80.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Creighton under 90.5
78.2%
1.92
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+30.2pp
Won
Creighton under 90
77.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Under 158
70.8%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
71.4%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 159
72.9%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Under 159.5
73.5%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 160
74.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
75.4%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 161
76.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 162
78.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
79.1%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 163
80.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
UMKC over 59.5
75.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
UMKC over 60.5
72.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Under 165.5
84.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
UMKC over 58.5
78.9%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
UMKC over 56.5
84.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
90.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
UMKC over 57.5
81.7%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
UMKC over 55.5
86.5%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
93.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
88.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Creighton (regulation)
90.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
UMKC under 80.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 128.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Creighton win
91.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
UMKC under 78.5
87.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Creighton over 70.5
89.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Over 130.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Creighton over 71.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
UMKC under 76.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Creighton over 72.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
UMKC under 74.5
78.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Creighton over 73.5
82.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
UMKC under 73.5
75.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.2pp
Won
UMKC under 72.5
72.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Lost
Creighton over 74.5
80.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Creighton -6.5
80.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.1pp
Won
Creighton over 75.5
77.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Over 140.5
70.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Lost
Creighton over 76.5
73.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.1pp
Lost
Creighton over 77.5
70.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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