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CSM Oradea vs Lok. Plovdiv Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 91-80
Projected total 171.3
Scheduled
Position#15
Record4-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game80.3
CSM Oradea
Vs
80%
20%
■ COR 80%■ LOK. 20%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.0/10
Around normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Lok. Plovdiv
Position#24
Record3-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game83.5
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Oradea Arena
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

CSM Oradea will host Lok. Plovdiv in the FIBA Europe Cup on 18 November 2026, with the model designating Oradea as the clear favourite at 80% to win and 20% for Lok. Plovdiv, a decision driven by Oradea's 4-2 record, 86.3 points scored and 80.3 points allowed per game, and their undefeated home slate of 2-0 with 92.5 points scored and 75.5 points allowed, compared with Lok. Plovdiv's 3-3 record, 83.3 points scored and 83.5 points allowed, and a 0-2 road record with 83.5 points scored and 96.0 points allowed. Oradea's last five games show three wins and two losses, including a recent 86-80 victory over Fribourg Olympic and defeats to Mykonos and Rapid Bucuresti, while Lok. Plovdiv's recent five include two home wins over Cherno More and Neftchi IK and a narrow 83-85 loss to VEF Riga. The only prior meeting ended with Lok. Plovdiv winning 79-69 on 14 October 2026. The model projects a 91-80 scoreline, 171.3 total points, and a 3% chance of overtime, with Oradea covering the home spread and the over probability implied by the projected total.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

CSM Oradea win
79.5%fair 1.26
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Lok. Plovdiv win
20.5%fair 4.89
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CSM OradeaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOradea
Date
Competition
Arges Pitesti
#8
W
98-92
98
92
+6
93avg 82
H10/10
Divizia A
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
L
69-79
69
79
-10
61avg 82
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dinamo Bucharest
#4
L
73-87
73
87
-14
56avg 82
A17/10
Divizia A
VEF Riga
#12
W
92-84
92
84
+8
84avg 82
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CSU Sibiu
#7
W
92-73
92
73
+19
86avg 82
H24/10
Divizia A
Neftchi IK
#38
W
99-83
99
83
+16
97avg 82
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rapid Bucuresti
#10
L
79-96
79
96
-17
69avg 82
A31/10
Divizia A
Mykonos
#7
L
79-89
79
89
-10
no box
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
86-80
86
80
+6
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SCM Timisoara
#12
W
85-70
85
70
+15
no box
H14/11
Divizia A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-24
31-19
22-30
20-19
20-17
18-26
15-20
16-16
18-21
21-26
19-20
15-20
20-23
20-17
25-22
27-22
25-19
30-21
20-16
17-17
23-16
29-24
26-25
21-18
22-21
23-20
13-30
21-25
24-15
13-21
17-20
25-33
26-26
21-21
24-20
15-13
26-18
18-23
16-8
25-21
168.5Avg total
85.2Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)86.380.3166.7+6.067%
Season at home (2)92.575.5168.0+17.0100%
Season away (4)83.282.8166.0+0.550%
Last 10 (10)85.283.3168.5+1.960%
Last 5 (5)85.683.6169.2+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)92.084.0176.0+8.0100%
vs Similar (6)78.787.5166.2-8.817%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)86.779.0165.7+7.773%
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPlovdiv
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
92-73
92
73
+19
85avg 84
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
79-69
79
69
+10
73avg 84
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#11
W
98-95 OT
98
95
+3
85avg 84
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
L
84-86
84
86
-2
67avg 84
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
87-65
87
65
+22
83avg 84
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
95-83
95
83
+12
92avg 84
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
66avg 84
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
76-72
76
72
+4
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
85-69
85
69
+16
no box
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
L
83-85
83
85
-2
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
23-19
29-18
19-21
17-20
26-18
20-15
16-16
24-21
15-19
26-28
22-19
16-14
20-21
24-25
24-26
22-24
22-11
18-20
25-10
24-11
21-20
24-26
26-26
14-25
25-20
17-20
23-23
13-19
23-11
14-23
26-19
24-18
22-14
19-15
20-22
24-20
28-22
17-22
14-21
164.3Avg total
85.8Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)83.383.5166.8-0.250%
Season at home (4)83.277.2160.5+6.075%
Season away (2)83.596.0179.5-12.50%
Last 10 (10)85.878.5164.3+7.370%
Last 5 (5)83.679.4163.0+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)84.587.5172.0-3.038%
vs Similar (1)85.069.0154.0+16.0100%
vs Weaker (13)90.478.6169.0+11.892%
This opponent (CSM Oradea) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1301%1352%1404%1456%1508%15510%16012%16512%17011%17510%1808%1855%1903%1952%2001%2051%2100%215
1%1302%1406%15010%16012%17010%1805%1902%2001%210
Pythia expects about 171 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
76.0%
Under 160
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
65.1%
Under 165
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
52.7%
Under 170
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

CSM Oradea total 80.5
Over 80.5
83.8%
Under 80.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Oradea total 84.5
Over 84.5
73.1%
Under 84.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Oradea total 88.5
Over 88.5
59.5%
Under 88.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 76.5
Over 76.5
63.7%
Under 76.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 80.5
Over 80.5
48.6%
Under 80.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 84.5
Over 84.5
33.9%
Under 84.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-241%-211%-181%-152%-124%-95%-66%-35%+09%+310%+610%+99%+129%+158%+186%+215%+244%+273%+302%+331%+361%+390%+42
1%-211%-154%-96%-39%+310%+99%+156%+214%+272%+331%+39
Margin from CSM Oradea's side (positive = CSM Oradea win). Pythia's expected margin is +10.7; CSM Oradea win by 1+ in 75% of simulations.
Spread CSM Oradea -3
COR -3
74.1%
LOK. +3
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
COR
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.
Spread CSM Oradea 0
COR 0
79.5%
LOK. 0
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
COR
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.
Spread CSM Oradea +3
COR +3
84.8%
LOK. -3
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
COR
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.2+1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.2+1.2
CSM OradeaLok. Plovdiv
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CSM OradeaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arges Pitesti
#8
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H10/10
Divizia A
Lok. Plovdiv
#24
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Dinamo Bucharest
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A17/10
Divizia A
VEF Riga
#12
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
CSU Sibiu
#7
W
55-40
55
40
+15
H24/10
Divizia A
Neftchi IK
#38
W
52-40
52
40
+12
A28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rapid Bucuresti
#10
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A31/10
Divizia A
Mykonos
#7
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Fribourg Olympic
#46
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SCM Timisoara
#12
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H14/11
Divizia A
87.1Avg total
45.3Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.040.684.6+3.457%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.940.687.5+6.257%-
Last 30 away (16)41.540.582.0+1.056%-
Last 10 (10)45.341.887.1+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)45.041.086.0+4.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)40.040.080.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (6)40.243.083.2-2.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)45.240.185.3+5.159%-
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#11
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
78.6Avg total
42.4Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.540.785.2+3.870%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.838.584.2+7.288%-
Last 30 away (14)43.143.286.3-0.150%-
Last 10 (10)42.436.278.6+6.280%-
Last 5 (5)43.636.079.6+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)43.642.485.9+1.262%-
vs Similar (1)46.032.078.0+14.0100%-
vs Weaker (13)45.539.384.8+6.277%-
This opponent (CSM Oradea) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
CSM Oradeatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CSM Oradea: 87.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.122.7
55.2%
53.4%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.38.7
31.9%
32.5%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.615.8
80.6%
72.8%15.8
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lok. Plovdivtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lok. Plovdiv: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.920.7
54.6%
53.4%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.78.4
31.5%
32.5%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.617.4
77.0%
72.8%17.4
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
CSM Oradea
WWLLWWWLLW
Lok. Plovdiv
LWWLWWLWWW
#15
League position
#24
+5.4
Net rating
+6.2
100.2
Offensive rating
96.7
94.8
Defensive rating
90.5
52.3%
Effective FG%
51.5%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
49.7%
14.3%
Turnover %
13.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.35
31.9%
3-point %
31.5%
55.7%
Assist %
58.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence100.2 · 96.7Defence94.8 · 90.5Shooting52.3% · 51.5%3-point %31.9% · 31.5%Ball care14.3% · 13.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ CSM Oradea   ■ Lok. Plovdiv
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
CSM Oradea wins
1
Lok. Plovdiv wins
DateGameScore
14/10/26Lok. Plovdiv v CSM Oradea79-69
CSM Oradealast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSCM Timisoara85-70
11/11/26AFribourg Olympic86-80
03/11/26AMykonos79-89
31/10/26ARapid Bucuresti79-96
28/10/26ANeftchi IK99-83
24/10/26HCSU Sibiu92-73
21/10/26HVEF Riga92-84
17/10/26ADinamo Bucharest73-87
14/10/26ALok. Plovdiv69-79
10/10/26HArges Pitesti98-92
Lok. Plovdivlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HVEF Riga83-85
07/11/26HCherno More85-69
04/11/26HNeftchi IK76-72
31/10/26ARilski Sportist79-88
28/10/26HFribourg Olympic95-83
24/10/26HPolytechnica87-65
20/10/26AMykonos84-86
17/10/26ABeroe98-95 OT
14/10/26HCSM Oradea79-69
11/10/26ASpartak Pleven92-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

CSM Oradea
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game86.392.583.2
Allowed / game80.375.582.8
Point differential+6.0+17.0+0.5
Avg total166.7168.0166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lok. Plovdiv
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL50%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %50%75%0%
Points / game83.383.283.5
Allowed / game83.577.296.0
Point differential-0.2+6.0-12.5
Avg total166.8160.5179.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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