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Dayton vs NJIT Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 89-58
47-23 42-35
Position#87
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Dayton 🏆
USA
Vs
89%
■ DAYT 89%■ NJIT 11%
Pythia win probability
Projected 78-63
Projected total 140.8
NJIT
USA
Position#353
Record-
FormLLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Dayton faces NJIT in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model designating Dayton as the clear favourite, assigning it an 89% chance of victory largely because of its dominant 78-point projected output versus NJIT's 63. Dayton's season record at home stands at 3-2 over the last five outings, with a recent 70-69 win over St. Louis Billikens and a 68-63 home win against St. Bonaventure, while its last game was a 62-70 loss to VCU Rams on 15 March 2026. NJIT, meanwhile, has struggled on the road, winning only one of its last five away games, including a 60-58 home win over Maine Black Bears on 7 March 2026, and suffering defeats to Vermont and UMBC Retrievers. The projected score of 78-63 reflects the disparity in offensive output, and the spread of -23.0 gives Dayton a 21% chance to cover. The over-145.5 line has a 38% probability of hitting, and the game has a 2% chance of going into overtime. Dayton's strong home form and NJIT's recent road difficulties suggest a decisive outcome, with the final score likely echoing the projected 78-63.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dayton winWon
89.5%fair 1.12
Best odds1.02
Implied94.9%
Edge-5.5pp
NJIT winLost
10.5%fair 9.49
Best odds26.00
Implied5.1%
Edge+5.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Davidson
#109
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H15/02
NCAA
George Mason
#47
W
82-67
82
67
+15
A19/02
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H21/02
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H25/02
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
65-60
65
60
+5
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
70-69
70
69
+1
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
62-70
62
70
-8
A15/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-26
36-33
43-36
39-31
42-39
36-27
44-28
33-34
34-31
34-35
40-32
25-28
36-37
26-31
30-27
38-36
33-36
37-33
25-40
37-30
135.2Avg total
70.2Scored
65.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.265.0135.2+5.280%
Last 5 (5)65.466.0131.4-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)69.779.4149.1-9.729%
vs Similar (17)75.068.9143.9+6.176%
vs Weaker (6)74.562.2136.7+12.383%
NJITUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass Lowell
#247
W
81-56
81
56
+25
H06/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H07/02
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
76-70
76
70
+6
A12/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
67-58
67
58
+9
A14/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
L
63-81
63
81
-18
H20/02
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
64-70
64
70
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
L
52-69
52
69
-17
A28/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
52-91
52
91
-39
H03/03
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
54-63
54
63
-9
A10/03
NCAA
1H
2H
42-15
39-41
32-30
41-34
39-32
37-38
31-35
36-23
42-32
21-49
30-30
34-40
30-32
22-37
24-46
28-45
32-29
28-29
18-26
36-37
132.2Avg total
64.2Scored
68.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)64.268.0132.2-3.850%
Last 5 (5)56.470.2126.6-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)63.878.6142.4-14.828%
vs Similar (11)70.767.5138.3+3.273%
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 140.5Actual: Over 140.5
Over 140.5
50.4%
@ 1.52-12.1pp
Under 140.5
49.6%
@ 2.60+12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 145.5 · main lineActual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
38.3%
@ 1.95-10.8pp
Under 145.5
61.7%
@ 1.90+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Under 150.5
Over 150.5
27.3%
@ 2.60-8.6pp
Under 150.5
72.7%
@ 1.45+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

Dayton total 80Actual: Dayton over 80
Over 80
40.0%
Under 80
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dayton total 84 · main lineActual: Dayton over 84
Over 84
25.0%
@ 1.86-24.9pp
Under 84
75.0%
@ 1.85+24.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Dayton total 88Actual: Dayton over 88
Over 88
13.8%
Under 88
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NJIT total 57Actual: NJIT over 57
Over 57
73.6%
Under 57
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NJIT total 61 · main lineActual: NJIT under 61
Over 61
58.6%
@ 1.85+8.6pp
Under 61
41.4%
@ 1.85-8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
NJIT total 65Actual: NJIT under 65
Over 65
42.2%
Under 65
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Dayton -26Actual: Dayton -26
DAYT -26
no forecast
@ 2.30
NJIT +26
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Bet365
2.30
NJIT
Bet365
1.55
Spread Dayton -23 · main lineActual: Dayton -23
DAYT -23
21.4%
@ 1.90-27.7pp
NJIT +23
78.6%
@ 1.83+27.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
NJIT
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Spread Dayton -20Actual: Dayton -20
DAYT -20
30.1%
@ 1.55-29.7pp
NJIT +20
69.9%
@ 2.30+29.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DAYT
Bet365
1.55
NJIT
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.9+2.91st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: -5.1-5.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.9+2.91st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: -5.1-5.1
DaytonNJIT
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Davidson
#109
W
34-26
34
26
+8
H15/02
NCAA
George Mason
#47
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A19/02
NCAA
Duquesne
#166
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/02
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H25/02
NCAA
George Washington
#160
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#231
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A04/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H07/03
NCAA
St. Bonaventure
#207
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H13/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#13
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A14/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A15/03
NCAA
69.3Avg total
36.1Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)35.933.168.9+2.867%63%
Last 30 at home (17)37.929.967.8+7.988%53%
Last 30 away (13)33.237.270.4-3.938%77%
Last 10 (10)36.133.269.3+2.970%60%
Last 5 (5)32.834.467.2-1.640%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.439.171.6-6.714%86%
vs Similar (17)37.031.368.3+5.788%53%
vs Weaker (6)36.731.067.7+5.767%67%
NJITLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass Lowell
#247
W
42-15
42
15
+27
H06/02
NCAA
Binghamton
#352
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H07/02
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A12/02
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A14/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H20/02
NCAA
Vermont
#85
D
30-30
30
30
+0
H22/02
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A28/02
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
24-46
24
46
-22
H03/03
NCAA
Maine Black Bears
#355
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H07/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
L
18-26
18
26
-8
A10/03
NCAA
62.7Avg total
32.0Scored
30.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)31.433.865.2-2.440%43%
Last 30 at home (13)33.530.564.1+3.062%38%
Last 30 away (17)29.836.466.1-6.624%47%
Last 10 (10)32.030.762.7+1.350%30%
Last 5 (5)26.832.659.4-5.820%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)29.935.365.2-5.333%50%
vs Similar (11)32.532.564.9+0.045%27%
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Dayton win
DAYT win
no forecast
@ 1.06
NJIT win
no forecast
@ 9.50
1st half Spread Dayton -13 · main lineActual: Dayton -13
DAYT -13
no forecast
@ 1.85
NJIT +13
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Dayton 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Dayton over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
NJIT 1st half total 27.5 · main lineActual: NJIT under 27.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Dayton -14.5Actual: Dayton -14.5
DAYT -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
NJIT +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Dayton -11.5Actual: Dayton -11.5
DAYT -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
NJIT +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Over 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Dayton -15.5Actual: Dayton -15.5
DAYT -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
NJIT +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Dayton -10.5Actual: Dayton -10.5
DAYT -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
NJIT +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Spread Dayton -16.5Actual: Dayton -16.5
DAYT -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
NJIT +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Dayton -9.5Actual: Dayton -9.5
DAYT -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
NJIT +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Dayton (regulation)
DAYT
no forecast
@ 1.07
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
NJIT
no forecast
@ 11.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DAYT win + total 145.5
🔒 Pro
NJIT win + total 145.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DAYT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
NJIT +2173.0%2.12
Bet365
2.12		----+29.4ppLost
NJIT +2275.9%1.98
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95		---+29.0ppLost
NJIT +20.570.9%2.16
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.12		---+28.2ppLost
NJIT +2378.6%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83		---+27.7ppLost
NJIT +21.573.8%2.03
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.00		--+27.7ppLost
NJIT +2481.0%1.74
Bet365
1.74		----+27.5ppLost
NJIT +22.576.5%1.90
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85		+27.5ppLost
NJIT +23.579.1%1.78
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75		+27.2ppLost
NJIT +24.581.5%1.70
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Betano
1.67		--+26.9ppLost
NJIT +2583.3%1.64
Bet365
1.64		----+26.9ppLost
Dayton under 8475.0%1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84		---+24.9ppLost
Dayton under 84.575.8%1.81
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75		--+24.3ppLost
Dayton under 83.572.6%1.89
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85		--+23.9ppLost
Dayton under 85.578.9%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+22.8ppLost
Dayton under 86.581.7%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+22.0ppLost
Dayton under 87.584.2%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+20.7ppLost
Dayton under 88.586.5%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+20.0ppLost
Dayton under 89.588.6%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+19.5ppWon
Under 15072.2%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+9.7ppWon
Under 14970.0%1.54
Bet365
1.54		----+9.6ppWon
Under 149.570.7%1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50		---+9.3ppWon
Under 15174.2%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+9.3ppWon
Under 15276.2%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+8.6ppWon
Under 150.572.7%1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44		---+8.6ppWon
NJIT over 57.571.2%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+8.2ppWon
Under 151.574.7%1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38		---+8.0ppWon
Under 152.576.6%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34		---+7.8ppWon
NJIT over 56.574.5%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+7.7ppWon
Under 15378.1%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+7.6ppWon
NJIT over 55.577.6%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+7.3ppWon
Under 153.578.5%1.29
Bet365
1.29		----+6.6ppWon
Dayton (regulation)88.0%1.02
Betano
1.02		-----1.0ppWon
Dayton win89.5%1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01		----5.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Dayton wins
0
NJIT wins
No previous meetings.
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/26AVCU Rams62-70
14/03/26ASt. Louis Billikens70-69
13/03/26HSt. Bonaventure68-63
07/03/26HVCU Rams62-68
04/03/26ARichmond Spiders65-60
28/02/26AGeorge Washington68-66
25/02/26HSt. Louis Billikens77-62
21/02/26HDuquesne78-66
19/02/26AGeorge Mason82-67
15/02/26HDavidson70-59
NJITlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26AVermont54-63
07/03/26HMaine Black Bears60-58
03/03/26HUMBC Retrievers52-91
28/02/26ABryant University52-69
22/02/26HVermont64-70
20/02/26HAlbany Great Danes63-81
14/02/26AMaine Black Bears67-58
12/02/26ANew Hampshire Wildcats76-70
07/02/26HBinghamton73-64
06/02/26HUMass Lowell81-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Dayton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 145.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
NJIT
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 145.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 George Mason110100%82.054.0+28.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Dayton474289
NJIT233558
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