PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The NCAA matchup on 19 November 2026 pits Drake against Charleston, with Drake the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 82% to win, a reflection of their undefeated 3-0 record, 85.7 points per game and only 62.7 allowed, placing them 41st in the league, while Charleston also sits 3-0 but with a higher 104.7 points per game and 67.3 allowed, ranking 5th; Drake's home dominance is evident with a 3-0 home record and 85.7 points per game, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 101-48 victory over Central College, a 75-68 win over Southern Univ., and an 81-72 win over South Dakota Coyotes, whereas Charleston's road record is 1-0 with 91 points per game and 81 allowed, and their last five games mirror Drake's 4-1 tally, featuring a 112-66 win over Newberry and a 111-55 win over Southern W.; the only head-to-head meeting ended with Drake 71-62 over Charleston in 2025; Pythia projects a 81-70 score for Drake, a total of 151.0 points, and gives Drake a 82% chance to win, while Charleston has 18%, with a 3% overtime probability.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.7 | 62.7 | 148.3 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 85.7 | 62.7 | 148.3 | +23.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.2 | 70.3 | 142.5 | +1.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.6 | 67.8 | 149.4 | +13.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (12) | 72.0 | 81.6 | 153.6 | -9.6 | 8% |
| vs Similar (12) | 74.8 | 76.3 | 151.1 | -1.6 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 82.4 | 68.0 | 150.4 | +14.4 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 104.7 | 67.3 | 172.0 | +37.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 111.5 | 60.5 | 172.0 | +51.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 91.0 | 81.0 | 172.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.6 | 67.7 | 148.3 | +12.9 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.8 | 71.8 | 161.6 | +18.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 68.9 | 76.1 | 145.0 | -7.3 | 29% |
| vs Similar (15) | 76.6 | 73.1 | 149.7 | +3.5 | 80% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 82.0 | 70.8 | 152.8 | +11.2 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.3 | 35.7 | 70.0 | -1.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.9 | 34.7 | 71.6 | +2.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 31.3 | 36.9 | 68.1 | -5.6 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.1 | 32.8 | 66.9 | +1.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 30.6 | 68.2 | +7.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (12) | 33.9 | 39.0 | 72.9 | -5.1 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 33.0 | 36.2 | 69.2 | -3.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 35.2 | 29.4 | 64.6 | +5.8 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 34.1 | 70.2 | +2.0 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.2 | 34.6 | 70.8 | +1.6 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.9 | 33.5 | 69.4 | +2.5 | 54% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.3 | 31.5 | 70.8 | +7.8 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.0 | 31.8 | 72.8 | +9.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 30.7 | 40.0 | 70.7 | -9.3 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 34.9 | 32.9 | 67.8 | +1.9 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 40.2 | 32.7 | 72.8 | +7.5 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | South Dakota Coyotes | 81-72 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Southern Univ. | 75-68 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Central College | 101-48 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 51-72 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Belmont | 100-79 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Southern Illinois | 67-63 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 53-75 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Valparaiso | 71-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Southern Illinois | 61-66 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 62-86 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Temple | 91-81 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Newberry | 112-66 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Southern W. | 111-55 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Towson | 56-81 |
| 02/03/26 | A | NC Wilmington | 79-76 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Hampton | 85-71 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Monmouth | 74-63 |
| 20/02/26 | A | N. Carolina A&T | 74-61 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Campbell | 62-57 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Hofstra | 62-66 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 85.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 62.7 | 62.7 | - |
| Point differential | +23.0 | +23.0 | - |
| Avg total | 148.3 | 148.3 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 33% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 104.7 | 111.5 | 91.0 |
| Allowed / game | 67.3 | 60.5 | 81.0 |
| Point differential | +37.3 | +51.0 | +10.0 |
| Avg total | 172.0 | 172.0 | 172.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 | Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Bradley | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 60.0 | 56.2 | +3.8 |
| 8 |  Evansville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 76.0 | 76.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 |  Northern Iowa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 85.2 | 86.0 | -0.8 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 104.7 | 67.3 | +37.3 |
| 2 |  NC Wilmington | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 63.5 | +29.0 |
| 3 |  William & Mary | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 91.3 | 78.0 | +13.3 |
| 4 |  N. Carolina A&T | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 83.2 | 70.2 | +13.0 |
| 5 |  Hofstra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 70.0 | 63.8 | +6.2 |
| 6 |  Towson | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 70.8 | 65.5 | +5.2 |
| 7 |  Elon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.5 | 70.5 | -1.0 |
| 8 |  Northeastern | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 83.2 | -4.5 |
| 9 |  Drexel | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 66.8 | 73.2 | -6.5 |
| 10 |  Stony Brook | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 64.7 | +9.0 |
| 11 |  Hampton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 59.8 | 66.0 | -6.2 |
| 12 |  Campbell | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.2 | 78.8 | -8.5 |
| 13 |  Monmouth | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.0 | 79.2 | -18.2 |
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