On 13 November 2026 the Drake Bulldogs will host the South Dakota Coyotes in an NCAA contest, with the model designating Drake as the clear favourite thanks to their undefeated 2-0 record, 88.0 points per game and 58.0 points allowed per game, a stark contrast to South Dakota's 1-3 record, 87.5 points per game and 83.2 points allowed per game; Drake's 96% win probability reflects that disparity. Drake's two-game season has seen them score 88.0 points per game and allow 58.0, and they have won both home games, including a 75-68 victory over Southern Univ. and a 101-48 blowout of Central College, while South Dakota has struggled, winning only one of five games, with recent losses to Houston Christian, CS Fullerton and Northern Kentucky. In head-to-head history Drake has won all three meetings, most recently 99-50 on 14 November 2021. Pythia projects a 88-68 score for Drake, a 156.4 total, and a 73% chance that Drake will cover the -13.5 line, while the over on the 160.0 total has a 41% probability; the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The Bulldogs' dominant offensive output and defensive stinginess set the tone for this matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Drake winWon
95.8%fair 1.04
Best odds1.10
Implied88.3%
Edge+7.5pp
South Dakota Coyotes winLost
4.2%fair 23.94
Best odds8.50
Implied11.7%
Edge-7.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Drake) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
48.2%
@ 1.55-11.5pp
Under 157
51.8%
@ 2.30+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 162 · main lineActual: Under 162
Over 162
35.8%
@ 2.00-13.6pp
Under 162
64.2%
@ 1.89+13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 167Actual: Under 167
Over 167
24.9%
@ 2.75-8.9pp
Under 167
75.1%
@ 1.40+8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Drake total 83Actual: Drake under 83
Over 83
71.5%
Under 83
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drake total 87 · main lineActual: Drake under 87
Over 87
55.8%
@ 1.85+5.6pp
Under 87
44.2%
@ 1.87-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Drake total 91Actual: Drake under 91
Over 91
39.1%
Under 91
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Dakota Coyotes total 70Actual: South Dakota Coyotes over 70
Over 70
41.3%
Under 70
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
South Dakota Coyotes total 74 · main lineActual: South Dakota Coyotes under 74
Over 74
26.3%
@ 1.85-23.7pp
Under 74
73.7%
@ 1.85+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
South Dakota Coyotes total 78Actual: South Dakota Coyotes under 78
Over 78
14.9%
Under 78
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Drake -16.5Actual: South Dakota Coyotes +16.5
DRAK -16.5
63.6%
@ 2.40+24.2pp
SOUT +16.5
36.4%
@ 1.53-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
SOUT
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Spread Drake -13.5 · main lineActual: South Dakota Coyotes +13.5
DRAK -13.5
73.0%
@ 1.94+23.1pp
SOUT +13.5
27.0%
@ 1.92-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
Spread Drake -10.5Actual: South Dakota Coyotes +10.5
DRAK -10.5
80.9%
@ 1.55+21.3pp
SOUT +10.5
19.1%
@ 2.30-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
SOUT
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DrakeSouth Dakota Coyotes
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Drake -14
72.1%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
+24.9pp
Lost
South Dakota Coyotes under 74
73.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes under 74.5
74.6%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.78
-
+23.6pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes under 73.5
71.3%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+23.5pp
Won
Drake -13.5
73.0%
1.89
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88
+23.1pp
Lost
Drake -13
75.1%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Drake -11
80.4%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Drake -10
82.8%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Drake -12.5
75.8%
1.76
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
SBO
1.75
Bet365
1.74
+21.4pp
Lost
Drake -10.5
80.9%
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Drake -12
77.8%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
South Dakota Coyotes under 75.5
77.6%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes under 76.5
80.5%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Drake -11.5
78.4%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
+20.1pp
Lost
Drake -9
84.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Push
Drake -9.5
83.2%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
South Dakota Coyotes under 77.5
83.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Drake -8.5
85.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Drake -8
86.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes under 78.5
85.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes under 79.5
87.5%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Drake -7.5
87.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Drake -7
88.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Drake -6.5
88.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Drake -6
90.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Drake -5.5
90.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Drake (regulation)
95.1%
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
79.3%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Under 165.5
71.6%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
73.7%
1.46
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
75.6%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 168.5
77.5%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 166
73.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Under 167
75.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Under 165
71.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Under 168
77.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Drake win
95.8%
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Pinnacle
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+7.5pp
Won
Drake over 81.5
75.8%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Under 170.5
81.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Drake over 77.5
86.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.9%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Drake over 69.5
97.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Drake over 76.5
88.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Drake over 71.5
95.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
88.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Drake over 73.5
93.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Drake over 75.5
90.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 180.5
93.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Drake over 82.5
72.5%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Drake under 96.5
79.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes over 56.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Over 140.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes over 58.5
82.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Over 145.5
74.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes over 60.5
77.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
South Dakota Coyotes over 62.5
70.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-16.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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