East Carolina faces Delaware State on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Pirates at 88% versus 12% for the Hornets, a reflection of East Carolina's 2-1 record, 76.7 points scored and 71.7 allowed per game, and a league position of 171 compared to Delaware State's 1-2 record, 74.7 points scored and 67.0 allowed per game and a league position of 261; the Pirates' home record is 2-1, with a 76.7 points per game average and 71.7 allowed, while Delaware State's road record is 0-2, scoring 69.0 and conceding 74.5; recent form shows East Carolina winning 2 of its last 5 games, including a 72-67 win over N. Carolina A&T, a 75-78 loss to NC Wilmington and an 83-70 victory over USC Upstate, whereas Delaware State also won 2 of 5, with a 78-83 loss to Georgetown, a 60-66 loss to Navy and a 86-52 win over St. Vincent; the only prior meeting ended 79-50 in favour of East Carolina; Pythia projects a 79-65 score for a total of 144.0 points, with a -16.5 line and a 38% chance the home team covers, and a 147.5 total line with a 41% over probability, while a 3% chance of overtime remains.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Carolina winWon
87.7%fair 1.14
Best odds1.06
Implied91.0%
Edge-3.3pp
Delaware State winLost
12.3%fair 8.14
Best odds11.00
Implied9.0%
Edge+3.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 22:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (East Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
55.7%
@ 1.45-8.8pp
Under 141.5
44.3%
@ 2.62+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
43.5%
@ 1.95-7.2pp
Under 146.5
56.5%
@ 1.93+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
31.9%
@ 2.60-6.0pp
Under 151.5
68.1%
@ 1.53+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
East Carolina total 78Actual: East Carolina under 78
Over 78
52.7%
Under 78
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Carolina total 82 · main lineActual: East Carolina under 82
Over 82
36.2%
@ 1.87-13.8pp
Under 82
63.8%
@ 1.87+13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
East Carolina total 86Actual: East Carolina under 86
Over 86
22.0%
Under 86
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Delaware State total 62Actual: Delaware State under 62
Over 62
63.0%
Under 62
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Delaware State total 66 · main lineActual: Delaware State under 66
Over 66
46.8%
@ 1.87-3.0pp
Under 66
53.2%
@ 1.85+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Delaware State total 70Actual: Delaware State under 70
Over 70
31.2%
Under 70
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread East Carolina -18.5Actual: East Carolina -18.5
EAST -18.5
31.9%
@ 2.12-12.2pp
DELA +18.5
68.1%
@ 1.67+12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.07
DELA
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.64
Spread East Carolina -15.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina -15.5
EAST -15.5
41.9%
@ 1.90-8.7pp
DELA +15.5
58.1%
@ 1.94+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
DELA
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Spread East Carolina -12.5Actual: East Carolina -12.5
EAST -12.5
52.6%
@ 1.47-10.4pp
DELA +12.5
47.4%
@ 2.55+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
DELA
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
East CarolinaDelaware State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
East CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rice
#268
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H19/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A21/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H01/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
28-53
28
53
-25
H06/03
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A08/03
NCAA
USC Upstate
#332
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H03/11
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#19
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H07/11
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#194
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H11/11
NCAA
72.3Avg total
35.8Scored
36.5Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 70
Last 30 (30)
32.7
36.6
69.3
-3.9
43%
57%
Last 30 at home (20)
33.2
35.6
68.8
-2.4
45%
50%
Last 30 away (10)
31.7
38.6
70.3
-6.9
40%
70%
Last 10 (10)
35.8
36.5
72.3
-0.7
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
36.8
37.0
73.8
-0.2
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)
31.3
37.6
68.9
-6.3
33%
54%
vs Similar (3)
35.3
30.3
65.7
+5.0
100%
33%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)
41.3
35.3
76.7
+6.0
67%
100%
This opponent (Delaware State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (East Carolina) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: East Carolina win
EAST win
no forecast
@ 1.26
DELA win
no forecast
@ 3.90
2nd half Spread East Carolina -6.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina -6.5
EAST -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
DELA +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: East Carolina (regulation)
EAST
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
DELA
no forecast
@ 3.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
East Carolina under 85.5
75.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
East Carolina under 87.5
81.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Delaware State +19.5
71.2%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Delaware State +19
70.2%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Lost
Delaware State +20.5
74.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
East Carolina under 89.5
86.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Delaware State +21.5
76.8%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Lost
East Carolina under 84.5
72.3%
1.51
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Delaware State +22.5
79.3%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Delaware State +23.5
81.7%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Lost
East Carolina under 86.5
78.7%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Delaware State +20
73.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Lost
Delaware State +21
76.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
Delaware State +22
78.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Lost
Delaware State +23
81.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Delaware State +24
83.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Push
Delaware State +24.5
83.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
East Carolina under 93.5
93.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
East Carolina under 88.5
84.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
East Carolina under 95.5
95.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
East Carolina under 97.5
97.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
East Carolina under 90.5
88.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
East Carolina under 99.5
98.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
East Carolina under 91.5
90.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
East Carolina under 98.5
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
East Carolina under 96.5
96.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 152.5
70.3%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 155
75.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
East Carolina under 92.5
91.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
East Carolina under 94.5
94.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 153.5
72.3%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Under 154.5
74.3%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 155.5
76.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 153
71.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 154
73.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 157.5
79.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Under 162.5
87.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Delaware State under 80.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Delaware State under 79.5
91.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Delaware State under 71.5
73.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
East Carolina +3.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Delaware State under 78.5
90.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
East Carolina (regulation)
86.1%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Delaware State over 51.5
91.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
Delaware State under 77.5
88.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Delaware State under 73.5
79.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Delaware State over 52.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
Delaware State under 74.5
81.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Delaware State under 76.5
86.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Delaware State over 53.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
Delaware State under 75.5
84.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Delaware State under 72.5
76.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Delaware State over 54.5
85.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Lost
East Carolina -1.5
86.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 122.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Delaware State over 55.5
83.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
Delaware State over 56.5
80.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Lost
Delaware State over 58.5
74.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
East Carolina win
87.7%
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Pinnacle
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-3.3pp
Won
Delaware State over 57.5
77.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
Delaware State over 59.5
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
East Carolina over 70.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
East Carolina over 71.5
76.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
84.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Lost
East Carolina over 72.5
73.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Lost
East Carolina -6.5
73.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
East Carolina over 69.5
82.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Over 132.5
75.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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