Elon hosts NC Greensboro on 6 November 2026 in an NCAA contest where the Pythia model names Elon the favourite, assigning it a 78% chance of victory, a 22% chance for NC Greensboro, and projecting a 82-73 score for a 155.4-point total; Elon's season record is 1-0 with 84.0 points per game and 71.0 allowed, while NC Greensboro is also 1-0 but averages 96.0 points and 43.0 allowed, the latter giving the model a 55% probability that Elon covers the home line of -7.5 and a 52% chance the over on the 154.5 total, with a 4% overtime likelihood. Elon's only game was a 84-71 win over Columbia away on 2 November 2026, and its last five games show one win and four losses, including a 57-76 defeat at home to NC Wilmington on 3 March 2026; NC Greensboro's lone outing was a 96-43 home victory over Milligan on 3 November 2026, and its last five games include three wins and two losses, notably a 75-72 away win over Wofford on 7 March 2026. Historically, the teams have met six times, with NC Greensboro winning four and Elon two, the most recent meeting ending 92-90 in Elon's favour on 8 November 2025.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Elon winWon
78.2%fair 1.28
Best odds1.25
Implied77.1%
Edge+1.1pp
NC Greensboro winLost
21.8%fair 4.59
Best odds4.35
Implied22.9%
Edge-1.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Elon) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
65.8%
@ 1.50+3.9pp
Under 148.5
34.2%
@ 2.50-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
54.0%
@ 1.93+4.3pp
Under 153.5
46.0%
@ 1.90-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
41.9%
@ 2.65+5.9pp
Under 158.5
58.1%
@ 1.47-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Elon total 76.5Actual: Elon under 76.5
Over 76.5
71.2%
@ 1.37+4.1pp
Under 76.5
28.8%
@ 2.85-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.72
Elon total 80.5 · main lineActual: Elon under 80.5
Over 80.5
56.4%
@ 1.88+6.0pp
Under 80.5
43.6%
@ 1.95-6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Elon total 84.5Actual: Elon under 84.5
Over 84.5
40.6%
@ 2.55+3.2pp
Under 84.5
59.4%
@ 1.47-3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
NC Greensboro total 68Actual: NC Greensboro under 68
Over 68
70.0%
Under 68
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC Greensboro total 72 · main lineActual: NC Greensboro under 72
Over 72
54.6%
@ 1.87+4.8pp
Under 72
45.4%
@ 1.85-4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
NC Greensboro total 76Actual: NC Greensboro under 76
Over 76
38.6%
Under 76
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Elon -12Actual: NC Greensboro +12
ELON -12
38.3%
@ 2.40-0.4pp
NC G +12
61.7%
@ 1.52+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
ELON
Bet365
2.40
NC G
Bet365
1.52
Spread Elon -9 · main linePush
ELON -9
49.5%
@ 1.95+0.4pp
NC G +9
50.5%
@ 1.88-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
ELON
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
NC G
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Spread Elon -6Actual: Elon -6
ELON -6
61.0%
@ 1.54+0.6pp
NC G +6
39.0%
@ 2.35-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ELON
Bet365
1.54
NC G
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ElonNC Greensboro
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
NC Greensboro over 66.5
74.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Over 146
71.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Elon over 76.5
71.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
-
Elon (regulation)
75.9%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.24
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Elon +11.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Elon under 100.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 146.5
70.2%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
NC Greensboro over 55.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Elon under 101.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Elon under 98.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 57.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 67.5
71.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Over 145.5
72.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Elon under 96.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 128.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 63.5
82.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 59.5
91.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
NC Greensboro +16.5
75.3%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Elon -1.5
76.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro +15.5
72.5%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Elon +6.5
90.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 65.5
77.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Over 129.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Elon -2
75.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Elon -2.5
72.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Elon -3
71.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Elon -1
77.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro +23.5
89.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 62.5
85.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
NC Greensboro over 61.5
87.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Elon +1.5
80.1%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 179.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Elon win
78.2%
1.23
Pinnacle
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.23
Marathon Bet
1.22
+1.1pp
Won
NC Greensboro +18.5
80.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Elon under 94.5
89.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 178.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
NC Greensboro +15
71.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Over 143.5
76.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
NC Greensboro +16
74.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 138.5
84.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Elon under 91.5
82.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Elon under 92.5
85.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Elon under 90.5
79.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 144.5
74.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
Under 174.5
87.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 139.5
83.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Lost
Elon under 88.5
73.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Under 173.5
86.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
NC Greensboro under 79.5
73.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
80.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Under 164.5
71.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Under 168.5
79.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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