Florida A&M will host UMKC on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aggies as the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win largely because of their higher points per game and stronger defensive average this season. Both teams are 1-2 this year, with Florida A&M scoring 82.0 points per game and allowing 78.7, while UMKC averages 74.0 and lets 82.7; Florida A&M sits 267th and UMKC 294th in the league. At home Florida A&M has a 0-1 record, scoring 70.0 and conceding 75.0, and in their last five games they went 2-3, losing 64-92 to UAB, 70-75 to Fort Valley State, and winning 112-69 over Florida State. UMKC's road record is 0-2, with 61.0 points and 77.5 allowed, and their last five were 1-4, losing 61-79 to Jacksonville, winning 100-93 at home against Southern Illinois, and losing 61-76 to Creighton. The model gives Florida A&M a 95% chance of victory, projecting a 86-66 score for a total of 152.2 points; the home line is 5.5 with a 98% probability of covering, and the over/under 151.0 has a 53% chance of going over, with a 1% chance of overtime. The Aggies' recent 112-69 win over Florida State suggests they will dominate the contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Florida A&M winLost
95.1%fair 1.05
Best odds3.70
Implied27.2%
Edge+67.9pp
UMKC winWon
4.9%fair 20.26
Best odds1.32
Implied72.8%
Edge-67.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Florida A&M) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146Actual: Over 146
Over 146
65.2%
@ 2.12+20.4pp
Under 146
34.8%
@ 1.95-20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
Over/Under 151 · main lineActual: Over 151
Over 151
52.9%
@ 2.50+4.1pp
Under 151
47.1%
@ 1.87-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.50
Over/Under 156Actual: Under 156
Over 156
40.3%
Under 156
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Florida A&M total 65.5Actual: Florida A&M under 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.42
Florida A&M total 70 · main lineActual: Florida A&M under 70
Over 70
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 70
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Florida A&M total 74Actual: Florida A&M under 74
Over 74
89.1%
@ 1.83+38.5pp
Under 74
10.9%
@ 1.87-38.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
UMKC total 72Actual: UMKC over 72
Over 72
27.8%
Under 72
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMKC total 76 · main lineActual: UMKC over 76
Over 76
16.0%
@ 1.85-34.2pp
Under 76
84.0%
@ 1.87+34.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UMKC total 80Actual: UMKC over 80
Over 80
8.3%
Under 80
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Florida A&M +4.5Actual: UMKC -4.5
FLOR +4.5
97.4%
@ 2.35+51.6pp
UMKC -4.5
2.6%
@ 1.73-51.6pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
1.89
UMKC
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.52
Spread Florida A&M +7.5 · main lineActual: UMKC -7.5
FLOR +7.5
98.4%
@ 1.95+48.4pp
UMKC -7.5
1.6%
@ 2.05-48.4pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
UMKC
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Florida A&M +10.5Actual: UMKC -10.5
FLOR +10.5
99.1%
@ 1.62+40.3pp
UMKC -10.5
0.9%
@ 2.65-40.3pp
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.43
UMKC
Bet365
2.65
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.18
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Florida A&MUMKC
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida A&MLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H20/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A27/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
30-17
30
17
+13
A28/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H06/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H14/03
NCAA
Florida State
#293
W
54-27
54
27
+27
A03/11
NCAA
Fort Valley State Wildcats
#97
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H06/11
NCAA
UAB
#183
L
27-47
27
47
-20
A10/11
NCAA
67.4Avg total
35.2Scored
32.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73
Last 30 (30)
34.1
32.9
67.0
+1.2
57%
30%
Last 30 at home (14)
36.7
31.9
68.6
+4.8
71%
29%
Last 30 away (16)
31.9
33.8
65.6
-1.9
44%
31%
Last 10 (10)
35.2
32.2
67.4
+3.0
50%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.0
35.8
72.8
+1.2
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)
34.1
34.4
68.4
-0.3
50%
50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)
32.4
34.7
67.1
-2.3
57%
14%
vs Weaker (7)
36.3
29.4
65.7
+6.9
57%
14%
This opponent (UMKC) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Florida A&M -4.5
90.5%
4.40
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
-
+69.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M (regulation)
94.2%
3.45
Betano
3.70
Marathon Bet
3.52
1xBet
3.14
-
-
+68.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M -9.5
80.8%
7.50
Bet365
7.50
-
-
-
-
+68.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M win
95.1%
3.50
Bet365
3.70
Betano
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
WilliamHill
3.50
+67.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M -2
94.3%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+66.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M -1.5
94.3%
3.27
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
+66.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M -2.5
93.1%
3.40
Betano
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
+65.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M -1
95.0%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+65.2pp
Lost
Florida A&M +1.5
95.6%
2.88
Betano
3.05
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
+63.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M +1
95.6%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+63.0pp
Lost
Florida A&M +2.5
96.4%
2.65
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
+61.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M +2
96.3%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+60.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 77.5
80.0%
4.50
1xBet
4.50
-
-
-
-
+59.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 78.5
77.0%
5.12
Bet365
5.25
1xBet
5.00
-
-
-
+58.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 74.5
87.3%
3.09
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.82
-
-
+58.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M +3.5
96.9%
2.40
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+58.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 80.5
70.4%
7.25
Bet365
7.25
-
-
-
-
+57.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 76.5
82.7%
3.73
Bet365
4.20
1xBet
3.25
-
-
-
+57.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M +3
96.8%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+57.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M +5.5
97.8%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.18
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.89
+56.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M +5
97.8%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
-
+55.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 75.5
85.1%
3.08
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.90
-
-
-
+55.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 79.5
73.8%
5.00
1xBet
5.00
-
-
-
-
+55.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M +6
98.1%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathon Bet
1.96
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.88
+54.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 72.5
91.0%
2.35
Bet365
2.60
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
+53.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M +6.5
98.1%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.05
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.86
+52.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 73.5
89.3%
2.36
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.50
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
+51.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M +4.5
97.4%
2.07
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
+51.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M +7
98.4%
1.87
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.77
Bet365
1.71
+50.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M +4
97.3%
2.02
Bet365
2.15
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
-
-
+49.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M +7.5
98.4%
1.85
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+48.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 70.5
93.8%
1.92
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
+46.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M +8
98.7%
1.78
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.62
+46.2pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 71.5
92.5%
2.05
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.25
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
+44.0pp
Lost
Florida A&M +8.5
98.7%
1.76
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
+43.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 71
93.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+43.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M +9
98.9%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.54
+42.0pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 72
92.4%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+41.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M +10.5
99.1%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.43
-
-
+40.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M +9.5
98.9%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.50
-
+40.2pp
Lost
UMKC under 79
90.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+39.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M +10
99.1%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
UMKC under 73.5
76.3%
2.47
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
+38.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 74
89.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+38.5pp
Lost
UMKC under 72.5
73.1%
2.63
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.62
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
UMKC under 77
86.3%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+36.0pp
Lost
Florida A&M +11.5
99.2%
1.45
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Lost
UMKC under 77.5
86.6%
1.82
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+35.0pp
Lost
UMKC under 76
84.0%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
UMKC under 78.5
88.5%
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.53
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M +12.5
99.3%
1.39
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+32.4pp
Lost
Florida A&M +11
99.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+32.2pp
Lost
UMKC under 75.5
81.9%
1.89
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
+30.5pp
Lost
UMKC under 74.5
79.2%
2.21
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
1.93
-
-
+30.4pp
Lost
UMKC under 76.5
84.4%
1.86
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+30.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M +12
99.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M +13.5
99.4%
1.33
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Lost
UMKC under 79.5
90.3%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
+29.4pp
Lost
UMKC under 80.5
91.8%
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M +14.5
99.5%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M +13
99.4%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M +15.5
99.6%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M +14
99.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Lost
UMKC under 81.5
93.1%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+23.7pp
Lost
Over 143
71.9%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+18.8pp
Won
Over 143.5
70.4%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.74
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.58
-
+18.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
72.5%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.65
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
+18.2pp
Won
Florida A&M +20.5
99.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Over 141.5
74.6%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
76.5%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Over 142
74.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 139.5
78.4%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Over 141
76.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Over 140
78.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
80.2%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Over 139
79.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
83.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 137.5
81.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
90.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 126.5
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Over 121.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Over 122.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
88.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
88.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
81.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
74.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
UMKC over 56.5
83.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
UMKC over 57.5
81.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.5pp
Won
UMKC over 58.5
78.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Won
UMKC over 59.5
75.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.9pp
Won
UMKC over 60.5
72.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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