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Fortitudo Bologna vs Montecatini Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 18:45
Final 91-69
20-20 27-20 25-10 19-19
Position#3
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game84.3
Allowed / game72.3
Fortitudo Bologna 🏆
Italy
vs
Montecatini
Italy
Position#20
Record1-2
FormLWL
Points / game72.7
Allowed / game84.0
ItalySerie A2Round 4· PalaDozza
Other2026-27
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fortitudo Bologna winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Montecatini winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fortitudo BolognaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Avellino Basket
#6
W
69-64
69
64
+5
63avg 71
H09/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
L
71-75
71
75
-4
65avg 71
A12/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
L
67-76
67
76
-9
66avg 71
A14/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
W
93-61
93
61
+32
97avg 71
H17/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
59-60
59
60
-1
48avg 71
H20/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
74-75 OT
74
75
-1
69avg 71
H22/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
73-86
73
86
-13
73avg 71
A25/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
92-70
92
70
+22
103avg 71
H27/09
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
83-81
83
81
+2
no box
A04/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
W
78-66
78
66
+12
76avg 71
H11/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
17-22
18-17
12-4
21-12
24-18
13-27
13-18
23-17
14-18
16-25
14-16
28-9
17-19
26-15
22-18
9-14
22-12
13-17
15-17
26-17
10-16
18-18
14-17
22-27
13-20
28-24
10-15
16-25
24-14
22-12
30-19
26-24
16-14
26-21
15-22
28-16
4-19
22-21
24-10
147.3Avg total
75.9Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.372.3156.7+12.0100%
Season at home (2)85.068.0153.0+17.0100%
Season away (1)83.081.0164.0+2.0100%
Last 10 (10)75.971.4147.3+4.550%
Last 5 (5)80.075.6155.6+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (19)72.872.4145.2+0.447%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)84.471.8156.2+12.5100%
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontecatiniItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMontecatini
Date
Competition
Rimini
#5
L
59-84
59
84
-25
46avg 47
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
81-72
81
72
+9
26avg 47
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
78-96
78
96
-18
68avg 47
H11/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
18-14
13-28
7-22
28-16
19-15
15-20
19-21
19-18
16-31
18-28
25-19
156.7Avg total
72.7Scored
84.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)72.784.0156.7-11.333%
Season at home (2)68.590.0158.5-21.50%
Season away (1)81.072.0153.0+9.0100%
Last 10 (3)72.784.0156.7-11.333%
Last 5 (3)72.784.0156.7-11.333%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)72.784.0156.7-11.333%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Fortitudo Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +4.7+4.7Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -10.0-10.0Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -3.7-3.7
-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +4.7+4.7Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: -10.0-10.0Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -3.7-3.7
Fortitudo BolognaMontecatini
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Fortitudo BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Avellino Basket
#6
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H09/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A12/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A14/05
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#6
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H17/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H20/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/05
Serie A2
Verona
#2
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A25/05
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H27/09
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A04/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H11/10
Serie A2
73.6Avg total
38.2Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.935.573.4+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.933.771.6+4.269%-
Last 30 away (14)37.937.575.4+0.450%-
Last 10 (10)38.235.473.6+2.870%-
Last 5 (5)37.038.475.4-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (19)35.835.671.4+0.247%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)41.535.376.8+6.382%-
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontecatiniLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#5
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H11/10
Serie A2
78.3Avg total
40.3Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (3)40.338.078.3+2.367%-
Last 30 at home (2)37.041.578.5-4.550%-
Last 30 away (1)47.031.078.0+16.0100%-
Last 10 (3)40.338.078.3+2.367%-
Last 5 (3)40.338.078.3+2.367%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)40.338.078.3+2.367%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Fortitudo Bologna) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Fortitudo Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Fortitudo Bologna: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀36%
🏀🏀🏀46%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.413.6
53.5%
51.2%27.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.411.5
34.4%
34.5%34.5
🏀 Free throws18.113.5
74.6%
71.0%13.5
They take 58.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 57% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Montecatinitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Montecatini: 54.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀26%
🏀🏀 2-pointers22.7 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 26% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.711.3
44.2%
51.2%22.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.76.0
30.5%
34.5%18.0
🏀 Free throws19.314.0
72.4%
71.0%14.0
They take 45.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/3 games with a box score before 17 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Fortitudo Bologna
WWWLLLWLLW
Montecatini
LWL
#3
League position
#20
+8.0
Net rating
-16.0
95.5
Offensive rating
87.3
87.5
Defensive rating
103.3
52.5%
Effective FG%
44.9%
46.9%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
15.9%
Turnover %
13.4%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.43
34.4%
3-point %
30.5%
82.5%
Assist %
44.2%
50%
Form (last 10/3)
33%

Profile

Offence95.5 · 87.3Defence87.5 · 103.3Shooting52.5% · 44.9%3-point %34.4% · 30.5%Ball care15.9% · 13.4%Free throws0.31 · 0.43Form (last 10/3)50% · 33%
■ Fortitudo Bologna   ■ Montecatini
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Fortitudo Bologna wins
0
Montecatini wins
No previous meetings.
Fortitudo Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/10/26HRimini78-66
04/10/26ACaserta83-81
27/09/26HRuvo Di Puglia92-70
25/05/26AVerona73-86
22/05/26HVerona74-75 OT
20/05/26HVerona59-60
17/05/26HAvellino Basket93-61
14/05/26AAvellino Basket67-76
12/05/26AAvellino Basket71-75
09/05/26HAvellino Basket69-64
Montecatinilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/10/26HBrindisi78-96
04/10/26ASassari81-72
27/09/26HRimini59-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fortitudo Bologna
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game84.385.083.0
Allowed / game72.368.081.0
Point differential+12.0+17.0+2.0
Avg total156.7153.0164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Montecatini
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Losses (last 3)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeLL0%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%0%100%
Points / game72.768.581.0
Allowed / game84.090.072.0
Point differential-11.3-21.5+9.0
Avg total156.7158.5153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno330100%75.361.3+14.0
2 Fortitudo Bologna330100%84.372.3+12.0
3 Avellino Basket440100%82.871.0+11.8
4 Sebastiani Rieti330100%79.369.0+10.3
5 Pesaro330100%88.780.7+8.0
6 Brindisi43175%81.875.8+6.0
7 Sassari43175%77.273.2+4.0
8 Basket Torino43175%75.574.0+1.5
9 Forli32167%82.078.3+3.7
10 Rimini31233%74.070.0+4.0
11 Ruvo Di Puglia31233%83.088.7-5.7
12 Mestre31233%67.377.3-10.0
13 Montecatini31233%72.784.0-11.3
14 Cento41325%80.586.0-5.5
15 Cividale41325%68.880.2-11.5
16 JuVi Cremona3030%72.076.0-4.0
17 Urania Milano3030%79.083.3-4.3
18 Caserta3030%77.082.3-5.3
19 Pistoia3030%69.775.0-5.3
20 Vigevano3030%73.788.0-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Fortitudo Bologna2027251991
Montecatini2020101969
← all games of the day
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