Georgia Southern hosts Mercer on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Georgia Southern the clear favourite, rating them 77% to win because their season record of 1-1 balances strong offensive and defensive averages of 75.0 points for and against, while Mercer sits at 1-2 with 77.7 points for and 79.0 against. Georgia Southern has gone 1-0 at home, scoring 67.0 and allowing 55.0, and has won three of its last five games, including a 67-55 home victory over Ball State, whereas Mercer has gone 0-2 on the road, averaging 71.5 points for and 92.0 against, and has only two wins in five games, the sole win coming at home against Reinhardt. In the two meetings between the clubs, Mercer has won both, most recently 77-68 in December 2021. Pythia projects a 86-77 scoreline, a total of 162.9, with Georgia Southern covering the -1.5 line 75% of the time and the over on the 160.5 line 55% of the time, and a 4% chance of overtime. The next game will see Georgia Southern try to turn last season's loss into a decisive home win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Georgia Southern winLost
77.4%fair 1.29
Best odds1.83
Implied51.9%
Edge+25.5pp
Mercer winWon
22.6%fair 4.42
Best odds2.00
Implied48.1%
Edge-25.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Georgia Southern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
66.8%
@ 1.47+1.8pp
Under 155.5
33.2%
@ 2.85-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 160.5 · main lineActual: Over 160.5
Over 160.5
55.1%
@ 1.88+4.5pp
Under 160.5
44.9%
@ 2.10-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Be
1.91
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 165.5Actual: Over 165.5
Over 165.5
43.0%
@ 2.40+2.7pp
Under 165.5
57.0%
@ 1.60-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Georgia Southern total 76.5Actual: Georgia Southern over 76.5
Over 76.5
81.9%
@ 1.39+16.7pp
Under 76.5
18.1%
@ 2.60-16.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Georgia Southern total 80.5 · main lineActual: Georgia Southern over 80.5
Over 80.5
69.7%
@ 1.86+19.7pp
Under 80.5
30.3%
@ 1.88-19.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Georgia Southern total 84.5Actual: Georgia Southern over 84.5
Over 84.5
54.7%
@ 2.50+18.5pp
Under 84.5
45.3%
@ 1.42-18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42
Mercer total 75.5Actual: Mercer over 75.5
Over 75.5
55.9%
@ 1.37-10.2pp
Under 75.5
44.1%
@ 2.67+10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.67
Mercer total 79.5 · main lineActual: Mercer over 79.5
Over 79.5
40.4%
@ 1.85-11.0pp
Under 79.5
59.6%
@ 1.93+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Mercer total 83.5Actual: Mercer over 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.42
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.45
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Georgia Southern -4.5Actual: Mercer +4.5
GEOR -4.5
65.0%
@ 2.40+25.9pp
MERC +4.5
35.0%
@ 1.54-25.9pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.35
MERC
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
Spread Georgia Southern -1.5 · main lineActual: Mercer +1.5
GEOR -1.5
75.1%
@ 1.94+26.0pp
MERC +1.5
24.9%
@ 1.87-26.0pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
MERC
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Georgia Southern +1.5Actual: Mercer -1.5
GEOR +1.5
79.3%
@ 1.70+24.1pp
MERC -1.5
20.7%
@ 2.12-24.1pp
Best 5 market prices
GEOR
Betano
1.70
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.68
MERC
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.05
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Georgia SouthernMercer
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
GEOR
no forecast
@ 1.91
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
MERC
no forecast
@ 2.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Georgia Southern -2
74.2%
1.95
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
-
+27.0pp
Lost
Georgia Southern (regulation)
75.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.87
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
Georgia Southern -3
70.6%
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Georgia Southern -1
76.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Georgia Southern -1.5
75.1%
1.89
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Georgia Southern 0
77.4%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.81
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Georgia Southern -2.5
71.4%
2.04
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Georgia Southern win
77.4%
1.80
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.80
+25.5pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +1
78.9%
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +2
81.6%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +1.5
79.3%
1.69
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +2.5
82.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +3
83.7%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +4
85.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +3.5
84.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +5
87.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +4.5
86.1%
1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +5.5
88.0%
1.36
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Georgia Southern +6
89.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Push
Georgia Southern +6.5
89.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 79.5
73.1%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 78.5
76.2%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 77.5
79.2%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern +7.5
91.1%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 76.5
81.9%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 75.5
84.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 71.5
91.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Mercer under 82.5
70.2%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Lost
Georgia Southern over 72.5
90.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 69.5
94.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 70.5
93.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Over 153.5
71.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Over 137.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 142.5
89.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Mercer over 61.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
81.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Lost
Mercer over 63.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 147.5
82.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 152.5
73.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
72.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Lost
Mercer over 65.5
87.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Mercer over 67.5
82.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Mercer over 69.5
77.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Mercer over 71.5
70.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.