Georgia Southern will host Ball State on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA contest that the Pythia model expects to be tight, with both teams' defenses and a measured pace keeping points in check. Georgia Southern has a 4-1 record in its last five games, including a 96-72 win over Coastal Carolina and an 82-78 victory against Marshall, while Ball State also sits at 4-1 in its recent five, highlighted by a 79-43 win over Northern Illinois and a 74-71 win over Western Michigan. The two schools have split their two meetings, the last being a 58-54 win for Ball State on 21 December 2022. Pythia gives Georgia Southern a 66% chance to win versus Ball State's 34%, projecting a 75-71 score for a total of 145.8 points; the home team's 2.5-point line is covered with a 73% probability, while the over on the 158.0 total is only 22%. The model also notes a 5% chance of overtime. Georgia Southern's recent 96-72 win over Coastal Carolina suggests its offense can find rhythm, but Ball State's 79-43 victory over Northern Illinois shows it can dominate defensively, setting the stage for a closely contested game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Georgia Southern winWon
66.4%fair 1.51
Best odds2.20
Implied43.7%
Edge+22.7pp
Ball State winLost
33.6%fair 2.97
Best odds1.73
Implied56.3%
Edge-22.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ball State under 77.5
75.1%
2.38
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
Ball State under 76.5
72.0%
2.47
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Won
Ball State under 78.5
78.0%
2.07
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Won
Ball State under 80
82.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+32.8pp
Won
Ball State under 80.5
83.2%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+32.6pp
Won
Ball State under 79.5
80.7%
1.88
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+32.1pp
Won
Under 155
71.9%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Ball State under 81.5
85.4%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Under 156
74.0%
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
-
+30.3pp
Won
Under 154.5
70.5%
2.22
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.03
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
Ball State under 82.5
87.5%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
Under 157
75.9%
2.01
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
SBO
1.96
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
Under 156.5
74.5%
2.02
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.00
+28.4pp
Won
Under 155.5
72.5%
2.09
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.03
WilliamHill
2.00
-
+28.1pp
Won
Under 158
77.7%
1.90
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+28.0pp
Won
Under 157.5
76.3%
1.92
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
SBO
1.92
+27.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
78.1%
1.85
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+27.1pp
Won
Under 159
79.5%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
-
+27.0pp
Won
Ball State under 83.5
89.3%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
Under 161
82.7%
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
79.8%
1.75
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
+26.2pp
Won
Under 160
81.1%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Ball State under 84.5
90.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
81.4%
1.68
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.66
+25.3pp
Won
Under 162
84.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
83.0%
1.60
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +2
71.5%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
+24.2pp
Won
Under 162.5
84.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Under 163
85.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
85.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern +2.5
72.5%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
SBO
1.87
+22.7pp
Won
Under 164
86.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Won
Under 164.5
87.0%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +3
74.5%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
-
+22.1pp
Won
Under 165
88.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern +5
80.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Under 165.5
88.2%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +6
82.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern +4
77.3%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern +3.5
75.1%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
SBO
1.74
+20.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern +5.5
80.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Georgia Southern +7
84.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern +6.5
83.0%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Under 166
89.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern +4.5
78.0%
1.63
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern +8
86.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
89.3%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Georgia Southern +7.5
85.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern +9
88.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern +8.5
87.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern +10
90.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern +10.5
90.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern +9.5
88.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern +12.5
92.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Georgia Southern +11.5
91.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
94.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 82.5
76.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern +17.5
96.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 171.5
93.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 81.5
73.0%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern +16.5
96.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 83.5
79.1%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern +22.5
98.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern +21.5
98.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 85.5
84.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 176.5
96.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 87.5
88.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 88.5
90.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 89.5
91.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Georgia Southern under 91.5
94.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.4pp
-
Ball State +23.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Ball State +22.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 62.5
89.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Ball State +18.5
88.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 63.5
87.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Ball State +17.5
86.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 64.5
85.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 65.5
83.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 66.5
80.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 67.5
77.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Lost
Georgia Southern over 68.5
74.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Lost
Ball State +13.5
78.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Georgia Southern over 69.5
71.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Lost
Ball State +12.5
75.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Ball State over 60.5
83.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Lost
Over 131.5
80.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Lost
Ball State over 61.5
80.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Lost
Ball State over 62.5
78.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Lost
Over 133.5
77.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.2pp
Lost
Ball State over 63.5
75.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.4pp
Lost
Ball State over 64.5
71.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.8pp
Lost
Over 136.5
71.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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