Grand Canyon faces Cal Poly on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Grand Canyon the clear favourite, rating them 92% to win largely because of their undefeated 2-0 season, 101.0 points per game and only 80.0 allowed, placing them 65th in the league, while Cal Poly sits at 226th with a 1-1 record, 81.0 points per game and 83.0 allowed. Grand Canyon's two home games have both ended in victory, 99-81 over Bethune-Cookman and 103-79 over Texas Southern, and they have not yet lost at home, whereas Cal Poly's sole road game ended in a 84-104 loss to Arizona and they have only one win on the road, a 78-62 victory over Cal St. San Marcos. In their last five meetings, Grand Canyon has won four and lost one, and their most recent win was 103-79 at home on 2 November 2026. The model projects a 90-74 score, 163.5 total points, and a 42% chance that Grand Canyon covers the -18.5 spread; the over on the 177.5 line has a 19% probability, and there is a 2% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Cal Poly can keep the score close enough to challenge Grand Canyon's offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Grand Canyon winWon
92.0%fair 1.09
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge-0.8pp
Cal Poly winLost
8.0%fair 12.42
Best odds15.50
Implied7.3%
Edge+0.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Grand Canyon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 172.5Actual: Under 172.5
Over 172.5
28.7%
@ 1.85-37.4pp
Under 172.5
71.3%
@ 2.90+37.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.72
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 177.5 · main lineActual: Under 177.5
Over 177.5
19.3%
@ 1.83-33.6pp
Under 177.5
80.7%
@ 2.30+33.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.74
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.02
Marathon Be
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 182.5Actual: Under 182.5
Over 182.5
no forecast
@ 1.99
Under 182.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
📊 3. Team Totals
Grand Canyon total 95Actual: Grand Canyon over 95
Over 95
29.4%
Under 95
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grand Canyon total 99 · main linePush
Over 99
16.9%
@ 1.85-33.1pp
Under 99
83.1%
@ 1.85+33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Grand Canyon total 102.5Actual: Grand Canyon under 102.5
Over 102.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under 102.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.44
Cal Poly total 76Actual: Cal Poly under 76
Over 76
39.9%
Under 76
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cal Poly total 80 · main lineActual: Cal Poly under 80
Over 80
25.3%
@ 1.85-24.8pp
Under 80
74.7%
@ 1.86+24.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Cal Poly total 83.5Actual: Cal Poly under 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Grand Canyon -21.5Actual: Grand Canyon -21.5
GRAN -21.5
31.7%
@ 2.35-8.0pp
CAL +21.5
68.3%
@ 1.54+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
GRAN
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.30
CAL
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
Spread Grand Canyon -18.5 · main lineActual: Grand Canyon -18.5
GRAN -18.5
41.7%
@ 1.94-7.9pp
CAL +18.5
58.3%
@ 1.91+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
GRAN
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
CAL
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Grand Canyon -15.5Actual: Grand Canyon -15.5
GRAN -15.5
52.4%
@ 1.67-7.9pp
CAL +15.5
47.6%
@ 2.41+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
GRAN
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
CAL
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Grand CanyonCal Poly
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Grand CanyonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Jose State
#349
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A14/02
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A18/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
D
28-28
28
28
+0
H22/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
42-24
42
24
+18
H26/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
27-41
27
41
-14
A01/03
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
43-24
43
24
+19
A04/03
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
44-29
44
29
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H12/03
NCAA
Texas Southern
#305
W
48-37
48
37
+11
H03/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#359
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H08/11
NCAA
72.5Avg total
39.6Scored
32.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 86.5
Last 30 (30)
37.3
31.9
69.2
+5.4
63%
7%
Last 30 at home (20)
39.1
32.1
71.2
+7.0
70%
10%
Last 30 away (10)
33.7
31.4
65.1
+2.3
50%
0%
Last 10 (10)
39.6
32.9
72.5
+6.7
70%
10%
Last 5 (5)
46.2
33.4
79.6
+12.8
100%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)
34.5
38.5
73.0
-4.0
50%
0%
vs Similar (12)
32.8
32.9
65.7
-0.2
33%
0%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)
41.1
30.3
71.4
+10.8
88%
12%
This opponent (Cal Poly) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Grand Canyon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Grand Canyon win
GRAN win
no forecast
@ 1.20
CAL win
no forecast
@ 4.60
2nd half Spread Grand Canyon -8.5 · main lineActual: Grand Canyon -8.5
GRAN -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
CAL +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 93.5 · main lineActual: Over 93.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Grand Canyon (regulation)
GRAN
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
CAL
no forecast
@ 4.55
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 175
76.7%
2.72
Bet365
2.72
-
-
-
-
+42.7pp
Won
Under 174
74.8%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+42.3pp
Won
Under 176
78.6%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+42.0pp
Won
Under 177
80.3%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+41.6pp
Won
Under 172
70.6%
3.05
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
-
+40.1pp
Won
Under 179.5
83.8%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
2.03
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.93
+39.9pp
Won
Under 180
85.1%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.10
Marathon Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.81
-
+39.7pp
Won
Under 173
72.7%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
Under 179
83.6%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.12
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+39.4pp
Won
Under 178.5
82.3%
1.98
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
WilliamHill
2.00
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.90
+39.1pp
Won
Under 180.5
85.3%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.03
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
+38.4pp
Won
Under 181
86.4%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.90
SBO
1.88
-
+38.3pp
Won
Under 178
82.0%
2.08
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Bet
1.93
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
71.3%
2.49
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.72
1xBet
1.85
-
-
+37.4pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 96.5
74.9%
2.44
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.20
-
-
+37.4pp
Lost
Under 173.5
73.3%
2.46
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.55
1xBet
1.77
-
-
+37.2pp
Won
Under 181.5
86.6%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
+37.1pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 97.5
78.0%
2.29
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Lost
Under 182
87.7%
1.84
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
+36.9pp
Won
Under 174.5
75.3%
2.41
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.03
-
-
+36.8pp
Won
Under 175.5
77.2%
2.29
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.27
1xBet
1.94
-
-
+36.6pp
Won
Under 176.5
79.0%
2.16
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.15
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+36.0pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 98.5
80.9%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.09
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
+35.9pp
Lost
Grand Canyon under 100
85.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+35.5pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 99.5
83.5%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.97
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+35.5pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 95.5
71.6%
2.52
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.42
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Lost
Grand Canyon under 100.5
85.9%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+34.8pp
Won
Under 177.5
80.7%
2.00
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
+33.6pp
Won
Grand Canyon under 99
83.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+33.1pp
Push
Grand Canyon under 98
80.3%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+30.9pp
Lost
Cal Poly under 80.5
75.5%
1.88
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+29.3pp
Won
Cal Poly under 79.5
72.3%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
+28.2pp
Won
Cal Poly under 81
77.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Cal Poly under 80
74.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Cal Poly +22.5
71.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Cal Poly +23.5
74.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Cal Poly +24.5
77.0%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Cal Poly +22
70.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Cal Poly +23
73.5%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Cal Poly +25
78.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
Cal Poly +24
76.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Grand Canyon (regulation)
90.7%
1.04
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Grand Canyon +1.5
92.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Grand Canyon win
92.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Marathon Bet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-0.8pp
Won
Grand Canyon -3.5
87.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Cal Poly over 60.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Grand Canyon -9.5
72.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Grand Canyon -10
71.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Grand Canyon -8.5
75.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 77.5
89.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 78.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Cal Poly over 62.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 79.5
85.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Cal Poly over 63.5
84.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 80.5
82.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Cal Poly over 64.5
81.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 81.5
80.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Cal Poly over 65.5
78.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 82.5
77.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.5pp
Won
Cal Poly over 66.5
75.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Cal Poly over 67.5
72.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.0pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 83.5
74.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-16.2pp
Won
Over 152.5
75.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Won
Grand Canyon over 84.5
70.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
Over 154.5
70.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-20.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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