Arizona hosts Cal Poly on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Arizona the clear favourite with a 98% chance of winning, reflecting the Wildcats' season record of 0-1 and an average of 75.0 points scored against 84.0 allowed, while Cal Poly sits 1-0 with 78.0 points for and 62.0 against; Arizona's recent five games show three wins and two losses, including a 79-64 victory over Purdue, whereas Cal Poly's five-game span includes two wins and three losses, highlighted by an 108-76 triumph over CSU Bakersfield. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a final score of 94-69, with a total of 162.9 points, and assigns a 30% probability that the combined score will exceed the 171.5 line. The Wildcats' 98% win probability is overwhelmingly higher than Cal Poly's 2%, and the model's confidence in the 94-69 outcome is reflected in the high win percentage and the projected points differential. The game's single-point overtime probability sits at 1%.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 75.0 | 84.0 | 159.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (1) | 75.0 | 84.0 | 159.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.7 | 74.3 | 158.0 | +9.4 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 78.6 | 161.4 | +4.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 75.0 | 84.0 | 159.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (5) | 76.0 | 73.6 | 149.6 | +2.4 | 80% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (24) | 86.7 | 69.3 | 156.0 | +17.3 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 78.0 | 62.0 | 140.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 78.0 | 62.0 | 140.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 81.8 | 78.3 | 160.1 | +3.5 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.8 | 79.4 | 160.2 | +1.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (20) | 78.5 | 85.7 | 164.1 | -7.2 | 30% |
| vs Similar (6) | 87.5 | 86.5 | 174.0 | +1.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 106.0 | 77.5 | 183.5 | +28.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.6 | 34.1 | 74.7 | +6.5 | 70% | 17% |
| Last 30 at home (20) | 40.6 | 32.8 | 73.4 | +7.9 | 75% | 15% |
| Last 30 away (10) | 40.4 | 36.8 | 77.2 | +3.6 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.5 | 37.2 | 76.7 | +2.3 | 50% | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 39.2 | 75.0 | -3.4 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 29.0 | 43.0 | 72.0 | -14.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar (5) | 37.2 | 36.6 | 73.8 | +0.6 | 60% | 0% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (24) | 41.8 | 33.2 | 75.0 | +8.5 | 75% | 21% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.5 | 40.0 | 78.5 | -1.5 | 47% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.2 | 39.5 | 77.7 | -1.3 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 38.8 | 40.5 | 79.3 | -1.7 | 53% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.8 | 36.9 | 74.7 | +0.9 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 37.0 | 76.6 | +2.6 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (20) | 35.5 | 40.4 | 75.8 | -4.9 | 35% | 30% |
| vs Similar (6) | 42.0 | 43.2 | 85.2 | -1.2 | 50% | 67% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 59.0 | 38.0 | 97.0 | +21.0 | 100% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona under 99.5 | 72.1% | 2.08 | 2.38 | 2.25 | 2.12 | 1.85 | 1.80 | +29.6pp | Lost |
| Under 173 | 74.0% | 2.00 | 2.12 | 1.95 | 1.92 | - | - | +29.2pp | Lost |
| Under 172.5 | 72.5% | 1.93 | 2.17 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.88 | +28.8pp | Lost |
| Under 174 | 76.0% | 1.92 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 1.83 | - | - | +28.5pp | Lost |
| Under 173.5 | 74.5% | 1.91 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.85 | +28.2pp | Lost |
| Under 175 | 77.9% | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.74 | - | - | +27.9pp | Lost |
| Under 174.5 | 76.5% | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.89 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +27.6pp | Lost |
| Under 176 | 79.7% | 1.74 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.66 | - | - | +27.2pp | Lost |
| Under 175.5 | 78.3% | 1.74 | 1.85 | 1.79 | 1.71 | 1.60 | - | +27.0pp | Lost |
| Under 176.5 | 80.1% | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.71 | 1.62 | 1.53 | - | +26.4pp | Lost |
| Under 172 | 71.9% | 2.04 | 2.05 | 2.03 | - | - | - | +25.0pp | Lost |
| Under 171.5 | 70.4% | 1.95 | 2.12 | 2.08 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.83 | +24.7pp | Lost |
| Under 177 | 81.5% | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.58 | - | - | - | +23.1pp | Lost |
| Under 178 | 83.1% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +21.9pp | Lost |
| Under 179 | 84.6% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +21.2pp | Lost |
| Under 177.5 | 81.8% | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +20.6pp | Lost |
| Under 180 | 86.1% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +20.4pp | Lost |
| Under 181 | 87.4% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +19.9pp | Lost |
| Under 178.5 | 83.4% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +19.7pp | Lost |
| Under 180.5 | 86.3% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +19.3pp | Lost |
| Under 179.5 | 84.9% | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +19.2pp | Lost |
| Under 181.5 | 87.6% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +18.1pp | Lost |
| Under 182.5 | 88.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +14.3pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 75.5 | 73.7% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 74.5 | 70.4% | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.42 | - | - | +6.6pp | Lost |
| Arizona (regulation) | 97.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.4pp | Won |
| Cal Poly under 78.5 | 82.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 77.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 76.5 | 76.9% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 80.5 | 87.1% | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +4.4pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 82.5 | 90.8% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 81.5 | 89.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Lost |
| Cal Poly under 79.5 | 84.9% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Lost |
| Arizona win | 97.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 53.5 | 94.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 54.5 | 93.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.2pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 55.5 | 91.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +0.0pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 56.5 | 89.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -0.9pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 57.5 | 88.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Won |
| Arizona over 80.5 | 90.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -2.8pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 58.5 | 85.9% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 59.5 | 83.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -4.0pp | Won |
| Arizona -10.5 | 88.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.0pp | Won |
| Arizona over 81.5 | 89.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.5pp | Won |
| Arizona over 82.5 | 87.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -5.1pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 60.5 | 80.9% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -5.2pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 63.5 | 71.7% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | -6.1pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 61.5 | 78.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | -6.3pp | Won |
| Arizona over 83.5 | 84.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -6.6pp | Won |
| Cal Poly over 62.5 | 75.0% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -7.3pp | Won |
| Arizona over 84.5 | 82.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -8.0pp | Won |
| Over 147.5 | 83.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -8.4pp | Won |
| Over 148.5 | 81.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -10.0pp | Won |
| Arizona -15.5 | 78.5% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -10.5pp | Won |
| Arizona over 85.5 | 79.7% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -10.5pp | Won |
| Arizona over 86.5 | 76.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -12.0pp | Won |
| Over 152.5 | 74.2% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -14.8pp | Won |
| Arizona over 87.5 | 73.5% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -15.2pp | Won |
| Arizona over 88.5 | 70.1% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -16.5pp | Won |
| Over 153.5 | 72.1% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -16.9pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | A | UCLA | 75-84 |
| 05/04/26 | H | Michigan | 73-91 |
| 29/03/26 | H | Purdue | 79-64 |
| 27/03/26 | H | Arkansas | 109-88 |
| 23/03/26 | H | Utah State | 78-66 |
| 20/03/26 | H | LIU Sharks | 92-58 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Houston | 79-74 |
| 13/03/26 | H | Iowa State | 82-80 |
| 12/03/26 | H | UCF Knights | 81-59 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Colorado | 89-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | H | Cal St. San Marcos | 78-62 |
| 12/03/26 | A | UC San Diego | 69-72 |
| 08/03/26 | H | CSU Bakersfield | 108-76 |
| 06/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 85-107 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UC San Diego | 64-80 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Long Beach State | 102-92 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Hawaii | 86-75 |
| 15/02/26 | H | UC Santa Barbara | 89-79 |
| 13/02/26 | H | UC Irvine | 79-73 |
| 07/02/26 | A | UC Davis | 58-67 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | L | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | - | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 75.0 | - | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 84.0 | - | 84.0 |
| Point differential | -9.0 | - | -9.0 |
| Avg total | 159.0 | - | 159.0 |
| Over 170.5 | 0% | - | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 78.0 | 78.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 62.0 | 62.0 | - |
| Point differential | +16.0 | +16.0 | - |
| Avg total | 140.0 | 140.0 | - |
| Over 170.5 | 0% | 0% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 46.0 | +45.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 55.0 | +39.0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 98.0 | 59.0 | +39.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 59.0 | +35.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 60.0 | +31.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 65.0 | +30.0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 50.0 | +26.0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 65.0 | +22.0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 58.5 | +21.5 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 83.0 | +11.0 | |
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 75.0 | 65.0 | +10.0 | |
| 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 66.5 | 60.0 | +6.5 | |
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 95.0 | +1.0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 66.0 | 68.0 | -2.0 | |
| 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 | |
| 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 75.0 | 84.0 | -9.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 110.0 | 47.0 | +63.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 54.0 | +39.0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 55.0 | +30.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 66.0 | +26.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 75.0 | +25.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 62.0 | +16.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 73.0 | +1.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 70.0 | 65.5 | +4.5 | |
| 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 63.0 | 66.0 | -3.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 67.0 | 79.0 | -12.0 | |
| 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78.0 | 102.0 | -24.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 45 | 104 | |
| 41 | 43 | 84 |
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