Gravelines-Dunkerque will host Nancy on 15 November 2026 in the LNB Elite, with the model favouring Nancy at 62% to 38% for Gravelines-Dunkerque, a 3-point edge that reflects Nancy's 2-5 record and 79.3 points per game against 83.9 allowed, while Gravelines-Dunkerque sit 16th with 0-7, 76.7 points scored and 89.6 conceded; the home side has gone 0-4 at home, averaging 78.5 points and 88.5 allowed, and has lost its last five, including a 69-83 defeat to Boulazac away on 6 November, a 69-89 loss to Roanne at home on 31 October, and a 81-89 loss to JL Bourg away on 24 October. Nancy's road form is 1-2, with 83.0 points scored and 93.3 allowed, and they have won two of their last five, notably an 108-94 victory over Dijon away on 30 October and a 86-73 win at home over Keravnos on 3 November, but they also suffered a 77-79 home loss to Limoges on 7 November. Historically, Nancy lead the 10-game head-to-head series 6-4, though Gravelines-Dunkerque last beat them 93-88 on 31 January 2026. The model projects an 82-85 score for the game, a total of 167.2 points, with a 2.5-point home line and a 44% chance that Gravelines-Dunkerque will cover, while the 164.5-point total has a 56% over probability and a 5% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gravelines-Dunkerque win
36.5%fair 2.74
Best odds2.36
Implied41.7%
Edge-5.2pp
Nancy win
63.5%fair 1.57
Best odds1.65
Implied58.3%
Edge+5.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Gravelines-Dunkerque) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 166.5.
Over/Under 161.5
Over 161.5
60.6%
@ 1.62+1.2pp
Under 161.5
39.4%
@ 2.30-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
WilliamHill
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Marathon Be
1.53
Under
WilliamHill
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathon Be
2.25
Bet365
2.15
Over/Under 166.5 · main line
Over 166.5
48.7%
@ 2.05-2.0pp
Under 166.5
51.3%
@ 1.93+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
36.9%
@ 2.70+1.1pp
Under 171.5
63.1%
@ 1.49-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.47
Under
Marathon Be
1.49
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
Gravelines-Dunkerque total 76.5
Over 76.5
65.7%
@ 1.41-0.4pp
Under 76.5
34.3%
@ 2.70+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.70
Gravelines-Dunkerque total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
51.5%
@ 1.83-2.0pp
Under 80.5
48.5%
@ 2.05+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.72
WilliamHill
1.70
Under
WilliamHill
2.05
1xBet
1.99
Marathon Be
1.99
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.83
Gravelines-Dunkerque total 84.5
Over 84.5
37.2%
@ 2.40-2.1pp
Under 84.5
62.8%
@ 1.52+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Nancy total 80.5
Over 80.5
67.8%
@ 1.57+5.3pp
Under 80.5
32.2%
@ 2.50-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.57
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
WilliamHill
2.30
Nancy total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
52.8%
@ 1.91+3.2pp
Under 84.5
47.2%
@ 1.89-3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Nancy total 88.5
Over 88.5
37.4%
@ 2.65+1.8pp
Under 88.5
62.6%
@ 1.43-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Gravelines-Dunkerque's side (positive = Gravelines-Dunkerque win). Pythia's expected margin is -4.2; Gravelines-Dunkerque win by 1+ in 32% of simulations.
Spread Gravelines-Dunkerque 0
GDU 0
36.5%
NAC 0
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
GDU
No market prices yet.
NAC
No market prices yet.
Spread Gravelines-Dunkerque +3 · main line
GDU +3
44.4%
@ 1.93-5.0pp
NAC -3
55.6%
@ 1.88+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
GDU
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
NAC
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread Gravelines-Dunkerque +6
GDU +6
55.2%
@ 1.59-2.9pp
NAC -6
44.8%
@ 2.22+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
GDU
Marathon Be
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.58
NAC
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Be
2.21
1xBet
2.21
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Gravelines-DunkerqueNancy
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Gravelines-Dunkerque) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
GDU win
40.3%
@ 2.10-4.8pp
NAC win
59.7%
@ 1.72+4.8pp
2nd half Spread Gravelines-Dunkerque +1 · main line
GDU +1
44.6%
@ 1.88-5.1pp
NAC -1
55.4%
@ 1.86+5.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main line
Over
54.2%
@ 1.88+3.1pp
Under
45.8%
@ 1.96-3.1pp
Gravelines-Dunkerque 2nd half total 40.5 · main line
Over
48.3%
@ 1.91-0.9pp
Under
51.7%
@ 1.84+0.9pp
Nancy 2nd half total 41.5 · main line
Over
56.0%
@ 1.88+5.0pp
Under
44.0%
@ 1.91-5.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 80
Over
60.1%
@ 1.83+9.0pp
Under
39.9%
@ 1.91-9.0pp
2nd half Spread Gravelines-Dunkerque 0
GDU 0
40.3%
@ 2.05-5.4pp
NAC 0
59.7%
@ 1.72+5.4pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
GDU
38.6%
@ 2.15-4.3pp
Draw
4.1%
@ 19.00-1.2pp
NAC
57.3%
@ 1.78+5.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Nancytheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Nancy: 77.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.6
18.0
49.2%
55.6%
36.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.8
8.7
31.3%
34.3%
26.1
🏀Free throws
20.3
15.5
76.4%
74.2%
15.5
Their opponents take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 62.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Nancytheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Nancy: 84.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.5
19.6
52.3%
55.6%
39.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.2
9.1
33.6%
34.3%
27.4
🏀Free throws
23.2
17.6
76.0%
74.2%
17.6
Their opponents take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Gravelines-Dunkerque
LLLLLLLLLL
Nancy
WLWWLLWWWL
#16
League position
#11
-13.3
Net rating
+4.6
91.4
Offensive rating
93.6
104.7
Defensive rating
89.0
51.9%
Effective FG%
51.5%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
48.2%
16.9%
Turnover %
16.3%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.36
31.9%
3-point %
36.4%
70.1%
Assist %
55.4%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Gravelines-Dunkerque■ Nancy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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