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Hamburg vs Phoenix Hagen Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:30
Projected 90-84
Projected total 173.3
Scheduled
Position#15
Record3-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game90.8
Vs
69%
31%
■ HAM 69%■ PHA 31%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Position#17
Record2-7
FormWWLLL
Points / game83.4
Allowed / game92.0
GermanyBBLRound 10· Inselpark Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Hamburg v Phoenix Hagen
22 Nov 2026
HAM v PHA
upcoming
16 Feb 2019
HAM64
PHA77
05 Nov 2017
HAM111
PHA84
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Hamburg host Phoenix Hagen in the BBL. Pythia makes Hamburg the favourite at 69% and projects 90-84, about 173 points in all. Overtime chance: 4%. Hamburg are 3-6 this season (83.3 scored, 90.8 allowed a game), form LLLWW; Phoenix Hagen are 2-7 this season (83.4 scored, 92.0 allowed a game), form WWLLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hamburg win
68.6%fair 1.46
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Hagen win
31.4%fair 3.19
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

HamburgGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHamburg
Date
Competition
Rostock
#8
L
71-103
71
103
-32
33avg 74
A10/05
BBL
Bonn
#4
L
72-96
72
96
-24
63avg 74
A19/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#13
W
94-90 OT
94
90
+4
76avg 74
H25/09
BBL
Oldenburg
#12
L
74-75
74
75
-1
66avg 74
A27/09
BBL
Rostock
#3
L
84-91
84
91
-7
71avg 74
H03/10
BBL
Frankfurt
#6
L
78-89
78
89
-11
63avg 74
A11/10
BBL
Bayern
#1
L
77-96
77
96
-19
60avg 74
A25/10
BBL
Syntainics MBC
#5
L
89-109
89
109
-20
78avg 74
H01/11
BBL
Jena
#18
W
91-87
91
87
+4
no box
A09/11
BBL
Wurzburg
#9
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
H14/11
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-27
20-28
17-31
21-17
15-25
19-20
20-29
18-22
22-22
20-21
15-17
26-23
19-8
27-15
12-28
16-24
13-21
19-25
19-21
33-24
24-27
19-15
19-26
16-21
23-27
18-15
12-29
24-25
24-25
25-29
14-27
26-28
32-18
21-28
22-22
16-19
24-17
33-23
24-16
10-28
174.1Avg total
82.1Scored
92.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.390.8174.1-7.433%
Season at home (4)89.593.5183.0-4.050%
Season away (5)78.488.6167.0-10.220%
Last 10 (10)82.192.0174.1-9.930%
Last 5 (5)85.293.0178.2-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)82.792.0174.7-9.328%
vs Similar ◀ (8)88.182.4170.5+5.850%
vs Weaker (4)88.590.0178.5-1.550%
This opponent (Phoenix Hagen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix HagenGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHagen
Date
Competition
Kirchheim
#5
W
93-82
93
82
+11
no box
H07/06
Pro A
Rostock
#3
L
92-102
92
102
-10
83avg 79
A19/09
BBL
Ulm
#11
L
78-93
78
93
-15
74avg 79
H25/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#13
L
93-94 OT
93
94
-1
82avg 79
A27/09
BBL
Frankfurt
#6
L
88-93
88
93
-5
79avg 79
H04/10
BBL
Oldenburg
#12
W
87-78
87
78
+9
83avg 79
A10/10
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#16
W
88-73
88
73
+15
86avg 79
H25/10
BBL
Vechta
#14
L
74-100
74
100
-26
65avg 79
H30/10
BBL
Alba Berlin
#8
L
72-102
72
102
-30
no box
A06/11
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#7
L
79-93
79
93
-14
no box
H13/11
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-25
15-21
22-13
30-23
11-39
22-22
26-17
33-24
21-27
16-16
21-27
20-23
24-19
23-20
20-22
14-20
18-22
22-19
26-24
22-28
29-20
24-19
13-18
21-21
20-25
28-12
16-24
24-12
25-25
13-31
15-25
21-19
26-26
21-30
11-27
14-19
18-21
29-24
18-22
14-26
175.4Avg total
84.4Scored
91.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.492.0175.4-8.622%
Season at home (5)81.490.4171.8-9.020%
Season away (4)86.094.0180.0-8.025%
Last 10 (10)84.491.0175.4-6.630%
Last 5 (5)80.089.2169.2-9.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)83.796.2179.8-12.50%
vs Similar ◀ (3)83.790.3174.0-6.733%
vs Weaker (21)90.582.5173.0+8.076%
This opponent (Hamburg) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1301%1352%1404%1455%1508%15510%16011%16512%17012%17510%1809%1856%1904%1953%2002%2051%2101%2150%220
1%1302%1405%15010%16012%17010%1806%1903%2001%2100%220
Pythia expects about 173 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%).
Over/Under 164
Over 164
70.7%
Under 164
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 169
Over 169
59.5%
Under 169
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 174
Over 174
47.5%
Under 174
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Hamburg total 82.5
Over 82.5
74.7%
Under 82.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburg total 86.5
Over 86.5
61.6%
Under 86.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamburg total 90.5
Over 90.5
47.0%
Under 90.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix Hagen total 78
Over 78
69.9%
Under 78
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix Hagen total 82
Over 82
55.5%
Under 82
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Phoenix Hagen total 86
Over 86
40.4%
Under 86
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-271%-241%-212%-183%-154%-126%-97%-68%-36%+010%+310%+69%+98%+127%+156%+184%+213%+242%+271%+301%+331%+36
1%-242%-184%-127%-66%+010%+68%+126%+183%+241%+301%+36
Margin from Hamburg's side (positive = Hamburg win). Pythia's expected margin is +6.1; Hamburg win by 1+ in 63% of simulations.
Spread Hamburg -3
HAM -3
61.4%
PHA +3
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
HAM
No market prices yet.
PHA
No market prices yet.
Spread Hamburg 0
HAM 0
68.6%
PHA 0
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
HAM
No market prices yet.
PHA
No market prices yet.
Spread Hamburg +3
HAM +3
75.7%
PHA -3
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
HAM
No market prices yet.
PHA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -7.2-7.2Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -0.2-0.2
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -7.2-7.2Q3: -3.1-3.1Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -0.2-0.2
HamburgPhoenix Hagen
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
HamburgLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rostock
#8
L
33-55
33
55
-22
A10/05
BBL
Bonn
#4
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A19/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#13
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H25/09
BBL
Oldenburg
#12
W
46-23
46
23
+23
A27/09
BBL
Rostock
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H03/10
BBL
Frankfurt
#6
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A11/10
BBL
Bayern
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A25/10
BBL
Syntainics MBC
#5
L
49-54
49
54
-5
H01/11
BBL
Jena
#18
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A09/11
BBL
Wurzburg
#9
W
57-40
57
40
+17
H14/11
BBL
86.6Avg total
43.0Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.945.488.3-2.537%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.846.590.3-2.740%-
Last 30 away (15)42.044.386.3-2.333%-
Last 10 (10)43.043.686.6-0.640%-
Last 5 (5)48.644.893.4+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)40.645.686.1-5.028%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)46.043.189.1+2.950%-
vs Weaker (4)47.249.096.2-1.850%-
This opponent (Phoenix Hagen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix HagenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kirchheim
#5
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H07/06
Pro A
Rostock
#3
L
33-61
33
61
-28
A19/09
BBL
Ulm
#11
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H25/09
BBL
Chemnitz
#13
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A27/09
BBL
Frankfurt
#6
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H04/10
BBL
Oldenburg
#12
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A10/10
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#16
W
48-37
48
37
+11
H25/10
BBL
Vechta
#14
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H30/10
BBL
Alba Berlin
#8
L
47-56
47
56
-9
A06/11
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#7
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H13/11
BBL
89.4Avg total
43.1Scored
46.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.644.288.8+0.453%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.441.684.9+1.856%-
Last 30 away (14)45.947.293.1-1.350%-
Last 10 (10)43.146.389.4-3.240%-
Last 5 (5)46.646.693.2+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)41.847.589.3-5.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)45.747.092.7-1.333%-
vs Weaker (21)45.242.988.0+2.362%-
This opponent (Hamburg) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Hamburgtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Hamburg: 74.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.017.1
50.3%
55.6%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.28.8
28.2%
33.7%26.4
🏀 Free throws19.814.3
72.2%
73.4%14.3
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Hagentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Hagen: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.1 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.320.6
55.1%
55.6%41.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.810.0
33.6%
33.7%30.0
🏀 Free throws16.412.9
78.4%
73.4%12.9
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/9 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Hamburg
WWLLLLLWLL
Phoenix Hagen
LLLWWLLLLW
#15
League position
#17
-16.1
Net rating
-7.2
86.6
Offensive rating
99.6
102.7
Defensive rating
106.9
46.5%
Effective FG%
53.0%
56.7%
Opp. effective FG%
57.8%
14.6%
Turnover %
15.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.25
28.2%
3-point %
33.6%
55.6%
Assist %
64.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence86.6 · 99.6Defence102.7 · 106.9Shooting46.5% · 53.0%3-point %28.2% · 33.6%Ball care14.6% · 15.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Hamburg   ■ Phoenix Hagen
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Hamburg wins
3
Phoenix Hagen wins
DateGameScore
16/02/19Hamburg v Phoenix Hagen64-77
24/11/18Phoenix Hagen v Hamburg84-70
27/12/17Phoenix Hagen v Hamburg69-62
05/11/17Hamburg v Phoenix Hagen111-84
Hamburglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HWurzburg91-84
09/11/26AJena91-87
01/11/26HSyntainics MBC89-109
25/10/26ABayern77-96
11/10/26AFrankfurt78-89
03/10/26HRostock84-91
27/09/26AOldenburg74-75
25/09/26HChemnitz94-90 OT
19/09/26ABonn72-96
10/05/26ARostock71-103
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26HLudwigsburg79-93
06/11/26AAlba Berlin72-102
30/10/26HVechta74-100
25/10/26HBasketball Braunschweig88-73
10/10/26AOldenburg87-78
04/10/26HFrankfurt88-93
27/09/26AChemnitz93-94 OT
25/09/26HUlm78-93
19/09/26ARostock92-102
07/06/26HKirchheim93-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Hamburg
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW33%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLLLLW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %33%50%20%
Points / game83.389.578.4
Allowed / game90.893.588.6
Point differential-7.4-4.0-10.2
Avg total174.1183.0167.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %11%25%0%
Phoenix Hagen
BBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL22%
HomeLLWLL20%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %22%20%25%
Points / game83.481.486.0
Allowed / game92.090.494.0
Point differential-8.6-9.0-8.0
Avg total175.4171.8180.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bayern98189%95.469.1+26.3
2 Trier87188%98.586.0+12.5
3 Rostock96367%89.381.6+7.8
4 Bonn96367%87.781.2+6.4
5 Syntainics MBC96367%83.881.3+2.4
6 Frankfurt74357%87.085.6+1.4
7 Ludwigsburg95456%86.185.2+0.9
8 Alba Berlin95456%87.286.6+0.7
9 Wurzburg84450%81.883.2-1.5
10 Bamberg94544%85.185.7-0.6
11 Ulm94544%84.185.4-1.3
12 Oldenburg94544%74.783.4-8.8
13 Chemnitz93633%89.888.8+1.0
14 Vechta93633%85.090.2-5.2
15 Hamburg93633%83.390.8-7.4
16 Basketball Braunschweig93633%85.298.1-12.9
17 Phoenix Hagen92722%83.492.0-8.6
18 Jena92722%77.989.6-11.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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