Hawaii hosts Portland on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Hawaii the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of their undefeated 3-0 season, 87.0 points per game and 59.7 allowed per game, while Portland sits 1-2 with 91.3 points per game and 102.7 allowed per game; Hawaii's 3-0 home record and 4-1 last five, highlighted by a 116-44 rout of Bethesda, contrast with Portland's 2-3 last five and a 133-89 win over Willamette but two heavy losses to Bethesda and UT Arlington; in the two meetings Hawaii has won both, most recently 69-56 on 21 December 2023; Pythia projects a 95-66 score, 160.2 total points, a 99% probability that Hawaii will win, a 1% chance for Portland, a 97% probability that Hawaii covers the -6.5 spread, a 54% chance of the over on the 158.5 line, and a 0% overtime probability, ending with Hawaii's 95-point projection.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hawaii winLost
99.0%fair 1.01
Best odds1.31
Implied74.3%
Edge+24.8pp
Portland winWon
1.0%fair 103.14
Best odds3.96
Implied25.7%
Edge-24.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Hawaii) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
70.7%
@ 1.44+5.6pp
Under 151.5
29.3%
@ 2.72-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 156.5 · main lineActual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
59.2%
@ 1.92+9.7pp
Under 156.5
40.8%
@ 2.01-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.01
1xBet
1.95
Marathon Be
1.91
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
46.8%
@ 2.35+6.7pp
Under 161.5
53.2%
@ 1.55-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
📊 3. Team Totals
Hawaii total 78Actual: Hawaii under 78
Over 78
95.7%
Under 78
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hawaii total 82 · main lineActual: Hawaii under 82
Over 82
90.6%
@ 1.85+40.4pp
Under 82
9.4%
@ 1.87-40.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Hawaii total 86Actual: Hawaii under 86
Over 86
81.8%
Under 86
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland total 71Actual: Portland over 71
Over 71
28.4%
Under 71
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland total 75 · main lineActual: Portland under 75
Over 75
16.3%
@ 1.88-33.3pp
Under 75
83.7%
@ 1.85+33.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Portland total 79Actual: Portland under 79
Over 79
8.3%
Under 79
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Hawaii -11Actual: Portland +11
HAWA -11
94.2%
@ 2.30+54.0pp
PORT +11
5.8%
@ 1.55-54.0pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Bet365
2.30
PORT
Bet365
1.55
Spread Hawaii -8 · main lineActual: Portland +8
HAWA -8
96.5%
@ 1.95+47.4pp
PORT +8
3.5%
@ 1.91-47.4pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
PORT
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Hawaii -5Actual: Portland +5
HAWA -5
97.9%
@ 1.62+38.7pp
PORT +5
2.1%
@ 2.40-38.7pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.52
PORT
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
HawaiiPortland
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Hawaii -17.5
84.5%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+64.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -16
87.9%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+63.2pp
Lost
Hawaii -18.5
82.4%
4.75
Bet365
4.75
-
-
-
-
+62.9pp
Lost
Hawaii -15
89.5%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+62.6pp
Lost
Hawaii -16.5
86.4%
3.90
Bet365
3.90
-
-
-
-
+62.5pp
Lost
Hawaii -21.5
74.9%
7.25
Bet365
7.25
-
-
-
-
+62.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -14
90.9%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+60.9pp
Lost
Hawaii -15.5
88.1%
3.40
Bet365
3.55
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
+60.9pp
Lost
Hawaii -22.5
72.0%
7.75
Bet365
7.75
-
-
-
-
+60.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -14.5
89.6%
3.10
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+59.8pp
Lost
Hawaii -13
92.1%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+59.1pp
Lost
Hawaii -13.5
91.0%
2.81
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.77
-
-
-
+58.2pp
Lost
Hawaii -12
93.3%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+56.7pp
Lost
Hawaii -12.5
92.2%
2.58
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+56.5pp
Lost
Hawaii -11.5
93.3%
2.38
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+54.3pp
Lost
Hawaii -11
94.2%
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
-
+54.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -10.5
94.3%
2.19
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
+52.1pp
Lost
Hawaii -9.5
95.1%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+52.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -10
95.1%
2.12
Bet365
2.12
-
-
-
-
+51.5pp
Lost
Hawaii -9
95.8%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+50.9pp
Lost
Hawaii -8.5
95.9%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
+48.8pp
Lost
Hawaii -8
96.5%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
Hawaii -7.5
96.5%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.80
+44.8pp
Lost
Hawaii over 87.5
76.6%
2.73
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
-
-
-
+43.0pp
Lost
Hawaii -7
97.0%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+42.9pp
Lost
Hawaii over 86.5
79.6%
2.45
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
-
+42.5pp
Lost
Hawaii over 85.5
82.3%
2.27
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
-
-
-
+42.0pp
Lost
Hawaii over 82.5
89.0%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.97
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+41.1pp
Lost
Hawaii over 84.5
84.8%
2.07
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
-
+40.9pp
Lost
Hawaii -6.5
97.1%
1.71
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
+40.6pp
Lost
Hawaii over 82
90.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+40.4pp
Lost
Hawaii over 81.5
90.8%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.87
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.70
-
-
+40.1pp
Lost
Hawaii over 83.5
87.0%
1.95
Betano
1.95
-
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Lost
Hawaii over 83
88.8%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
Hawaii over 80.5
92.3%
1.71
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.55
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
Hawaii -6
97.5%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+39.1pp
Lost
Hawaii -5
97.9%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
Hawaii -4.5
98.0%
1.54
1xBet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Hawaii -5.5
97.5%
1.62
1xBet
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
+37.3pp
Lost
Portland under 72.5
75.8%
2.34
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
+36.3pp
Lost
Portland under 76
86.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+36.1pp
Won
Portland under 71.5
72.6%
2.46
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+35.2pp
Lost
Hawaii -4
98.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+33.8pp
Lost
Hawaii -3.5
98.3%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Lost
Portland under 75
83.7%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+33.3pp
Won
Portland under 76.5
86.4%
1.70
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.60
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Portland under 74
81.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Hawaii over 79.5
93.7%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Lost
Hawaii -3
98.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Hawaii (regulation)
98.8%
1.33
1xBet
1.34
Marathon Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
+30.8pp
Lost
Hawaii -2.5
98.6%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+30.4pp
Lost
Portland under 73.5
78.8%
1.98
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.92
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
Hawaii over 78.5
94.8%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Lost
Portland under 74.5
81.6%
1.86
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+29.6pp
Won
Portland under 75.5
84.1%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+29.4pp
Won
Hawaii -1.5
98.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Hawaii -2
98.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Portland under 77.5
88.5%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Hawaii over 76.5
96.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Lost
Portland under 78.5
90.3%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
Hawaii over 77.5
95.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
Hawaii -1
99.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Hawaii +1
99.1%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Hawaii win
99.0%
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
WilliamHill
1.29
Bet365
1.27
+24.8pp
Lost
Portland under 80.5
93.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
Portland under 79.5
91.9%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
Hawaii +1.5
99.1%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Lost
Hawaii +2.5
99.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Hawaii over 75.5
97.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Hawaii +3.5
99.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Portland under 82.5
95.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Portland under 81.5
94.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Hawaii over 73.5
98.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Hawaii over 72.5
98.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
Portland under 84.5
97.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Hawaii over 71.5
99.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Portland under 86.5
98.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Hawaii +6.5
99.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Hawaii +7.5
99.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Hawaii +8.5
99.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Hawaii over 69.5
99.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Lost
Portland under 88.5
98.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Hawaii over 67.5
99.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Portland under 90.5
99.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Hawaii +13.5
99.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Hawaii +12.5
99.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Hawaii +11.5
99.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
99.7%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+8.5pp
-
Hawaii over 65.5
99.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Portland under 92.5
99.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Hawaii over 63.5
99.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Portland under 94.5
99.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 149.5
74.8%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Over 151.5
70.7%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Over 151
72.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Over 150.5
72.8%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Over 152
70.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Over 150
74.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Over 132.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 147.5
78.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
Over 133.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 137.5
92.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 142.5
86.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Over 138.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 148.5
76.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Over 143.5
85.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
Under 178.5
87.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Under 173.5
79.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Under 177.5
85.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
77.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Portland over 56.5
81.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Portland over 57.5
79.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
Portland over 58.5
76.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
Hawaii under 101.5
75.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
Portland over 59.5
72.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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