Portland faces UT Arlington in an NCAA contest on 6 November 2026, with the model designating Portland as the favourite and predicting a decisive 73% win probability for the home side. Portland enters the game with a 1-0 record, averaging 133.0 points per game and allowing 89.0, while UT Arlington also stands at 1-0, scoring 89.0 and conceding 56.0; both teams have played only one game so far, so no separate home or road records beyond the single match each. Portland's last five games include four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 133-89 victory over Willamette at home on 2 November 2026, whereas UT Arlington's recent five feature four wins and one loss, with a 89-56 home win over North Texas-Dallas on 2 November 2026. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 77-70 scoreline, total 147.7 points, and assigns a 75% chance that Portland will cover the 1.5-point line; the over on the 150.5 total has a 43% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The game will be contested at Portland's venue, where the team's single win sets the tone.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portland winLost
73.0%fair 1.37
Best odds1.87
Implied51.7%
Edge+21.3pp
UT Arlington winWon
27.0%fair 3.70
Best odds1.99
Implied48.3%
Edge-21.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Portland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
54.6%
@ 1.47-8.3pp
Under 145.5
45.4%
@ 2.55+8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 150.5 · main lineActual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
42.5%
@ 1.91-7.9pp
Under 150.5
57.5%
@ 1.93+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
31.2%
@ 2.55-6.3pp
Under 155.5
68.8%
@ 1.50+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Portland total 71.5Actual: Portland over 71.5
Over 71.5
71.7%
@ 1.45+7.9pp
Under 71.5
28.3%
@ 2.60-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Portland total 76 · main lineActual: Portland over 76
Over 76
55.3%
@ 1.85+5.3pp
Under 76
44.7%
@ 1.85-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Portland total 80Actual: Portland over 80
Over 80
39.0%
Under 80
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UT Arlington total 71.5Actual: UT Arlington over 71.5
Over 71.5
45.1%
@ 1.40-19.5pp
Under 71.5
54.9%
@ 2.55+19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
UT Arlington total 75.5 · main lineActual: UT Arlington over 75.5
Over 75.5
30.6%
@ 1.93-19.8pp
Under 75.5
69.4%
@ 1.91+19.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
UT Arlington total 79.5Actual: UT Arlington over 79.5
Over 79.5
18.8%
@ 2.55-16.7pp
Under 79.5
81.2%
@ 1.40+16.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Portland -2Actual: UT Arlington +2
PORT -2
69.3%
@ 1.68+12.3pp
UT A +2
30.7%
@ 2.23-12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
PORT
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.64
UT A
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.07
Spread Portland +1 · main lineActual: UT Arlington -1
PORT +1
74.6%
@ 1.91+24.2pp
UT A -1
25.4%
@ 1.94-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
PORT
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Bet365
1.85
UT A
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Spread Portland +4Push
PORT +4
82.6%
@ 2.25+41.5pp
UT A -4
17.4%
@ 1.57-41.5pp
Best 5 market prices
PORT
Bet365
2.25
UT A
Bet365
1.57
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
PortlandUT Arlington
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UT Arlington) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UT ArlingtonLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Abilene Christian
#264
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A13/02
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H14/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
22-39
22
39
-17
H21/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A08/03
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H13/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A14/03
NCAA
North Texas-Dallas
#393
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H03/11
NCAA
70.0Avg total
35.9Scored
34.1Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 79.5
Last 30 (30)
37.7
35.3
72.9
+2.4
60%
30%
Last 30 at home (13)
37.8
34.2
72.1
+3.6
69%
31%
Last 30 away (17)
37.5
36.1
73.6
+1.5
53%
29%
Last 10 (10)
35.9
34.1
70.0
+1.8
70%
20%
Last 5 (5)
39.6
32.6
72.2
+7.0
100%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
34.6
36.0
70.6
-1.4
60%
20%
vs Similar ◀ (15)
35.9
33.7
69.6
+2.3
53%
20%
vs Weaker (9)
41.2
37.7
78.9
+3.6
67%
44%
This opponent (Portland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UT Arlington win
PORT win
no forecast
@ 1.87
UT A win
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Spread Portland +1.5 · main lineActual: Portland +1.5
PORT +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
UT A -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UT Arlington (regulation)
PORT
no forecast
@ 1.91
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
UT A
no forecast
@ 2.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Portland +21.5
98.8%
9.50
Bet365
9.50
-
-
-
-
+89.0pp
Won
Portland +20.5
98.6%
9.00
Bet365
9.00
-
-
-
-
+88.2pp
Won
UT Arlington +24.5
93.3%
13.00
Bet365
13.00
-
-
-
-
+86.1pp
Won
UT Arlington +23.5
92.3%
12.00
Bet365
12.00
-
-
-
-
+84.5pp
Won
Portland +16.5
97.2%
7.00
Bet365
7.00
-
-
-
-
+83.9pp
Won
Portland +15.5
96.8%
6.50
Bet365
6.50
-
-
-
-
+82.3pp
Won
UT Arlington +19.5
86.5%
9.00
Bet365
9.00
-
-
-
-
+76.1pp
Won
UT Arlington +18.5
84.6%
8.75
Bet365
8.75
-
-
-
-
+73.9pp
Won
Portland +11.5
93.9%
4.40
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
-
+72.7pp
Won
Portland +10.5
92.9%
3.90
Bet365
3.90
-
-
-
-
+69.0pp
Won
Portland +9.5
91.7%
3.60
Bet365
3.60
-
-
-
-
+65.8pp
Won
Portland +9
91.6%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+64.7pp
Won
Portland +8.5
90.4%
3.38
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.25
-
-
-
+62.9pp
Won
Portland +8
90.2%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+61.2pp
Won
UT Arlington +14.5
75.0%
6.75
Bet365
6.75
-
-
-
-
+61.1pp
Won
Portland +7.5
88.8%
3.08
Betano
3.15
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
+58.7pp
Won
UT Arlington +13.5
72.2%
6.25
Bet365
6.25
-
-
-
-
+57.2pp
Won
Portland +7
88.6%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+56.7pp
Won
Portland +6.5
87.1%
2.83
Betano
2.90
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+54.4pp
Won
Portland +6
86.9%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+52.5pp
Won
Portland +5.5
85.2%
2.58
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+49.3pp
Won
Portland +5
84.8%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+47.3pp
Won
Portland +4.5
83.0%
2.40
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+44.5pp
Won
Portland +4
82.6%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+41.5pp
Push
Portland +3.5
80.6%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+39.7pp
Lost
Portland +3
80.2%
2.17
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Lost
Portland +2.5
78.4%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+33.9pp
Lost
Portland +2
77.7%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.04
Marathon Bet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
-
+31.2pp
Lost
Portland +1.5
75.2%
1.95
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.94
+26.2pp
Lost
Portland +1
74.6%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Bet365
1.85
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Portland (regulation)
70.5%
1.92
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Portland win
73.0%
1.85
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+21.3pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 76
71.8%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 76.5
72.7%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Portland -1
72.3%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 77.5
75.8%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 78.5
78.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 79.5
81.2%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Portland -1.5
70.5%
1.72
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
UT Arlington under 80.5
83.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Lost
Portland over 70.5
74.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Portland over 71.5
71.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Portland over 69.5
78.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 156.5
70.9%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9pp
-
Under 156
70.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Under 157.5
72.9%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Under 157
72.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
Under 158
74.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Under 158.5
74.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 175.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 160.5
78.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Under 170.5
91.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Under 165.5
86.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Portland under 93.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Portland under 91.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Portland under 89.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Over 125.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Portland under 87.5
84.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 130.5
85.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
UT Arlington over 58.5
87.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Portland under 85.5
79.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Portland under 84.5
76.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Lost
Portland under 83.5
73.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Lost
UT Arlington over 60.5
83.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
76.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
UT Arlington over 62.5
77.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.1pp
Won
UT Arlington over 64.5
71.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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