Hawaii hosts UT Arlington in the NCAA on 8 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Hawaii as the clear favourite, assigning an 85% chance of victory largely because of their 2-0 record, 95.0 points per game and only 58.5 allowed per game, placing them 27th in the league, while UT Arlington also sits at 2-0 but with 89.0 points per game and 70.5 allowed, 100th in the standings. Hawaii's two home games have yielded a 2-0 home record, 95.0 points per game and 58.5 allowed, and their last five games show four wins and one loss, including a 116-44 home win over Bethesda and a narrow 74-73 victory over Seattle, whereas UT Arlington's single road game was a 1-0 win, 89.0 points per game and 85.0 allowed, and their last five games also feature four wins and one loss, with a 89-85 road win over Portland and a 89-56 home win over North Texas-Dallas. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 79-67 score, 146.5 total points, an 8.0-point home line with a 65% chance of covering, and a 147.5 total line with a 47% over probability, while the chance of overtime is 3%. Hawaii's dominant defensive numbers suggest they will likely control the game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hawaii winWon
85.5%fair 1.17
Best odds1.26
Implied78.2%
Edge+7.2pp
UT Arlington winLost
14.5%fair 6.88
Best odds4.42
Implied21.8%
Edge-7.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Hawaii) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Under 141.5
Over 141.5
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.2pp
Under 141.5
38.4%
@ 2.50-0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
49.5%
@ 1.95-0.2pp
Under 146.5
50.5%
@ 1.89+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
37.5%
@ 2.70-7.8pp
Under 151.5
62.5%
@ 1.74+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.10
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.65
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
Hawaii total 74Actual: Hawaii under 74
Over 74
71.0%
Under 74
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hawaii total 78 · main lineActual: Hawaii under 78
Over 78
55.3%
@ 1.86+5.5pp
Under 78
44.7%
@ 1.85-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Hawaii total 82Actual: Hawaii under 82
Over 82
38.7%
Under 82
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UT Arlington total 65Actual: UT Arlington under 65
Over 65
58.4%
Under 65
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UT Arlington total 69 · main lineActual: UT Arlington under 69
Over 69
42.2%
@ 1.85-7.8pp
Under 69
57.8%
@ 1.85+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UT Arlington total 73Actual: UT Arlington under 73
Over 73
27.4%
Under 73
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Hawaii -11Actual: UT Arlington +11
HAWA -11
53.8%
@ 2.38+13.6pp
UT A +11
46.2%
@ 1.85-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Pinnacle
2.38
Bet365
2.30
SBO
1.96
Marathon Be
1.86
UT A
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.55
Spread Hawaii -8 · main lineActual: Hawaii -8
HAWA -8
64.8%
@ 1.91+14.4pp
UT A +8
35.2%
@ 1.94-14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
UT A
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Hawaii -5Actual: Hawaii -5
HAWA -5
74.9%
@ 1.50+12.4pp
UT A +5
25.1%
@ 2.50-12.4pp
Best 5 market prices
HAWA
Bet365
1.50
UT A
Bet365
2.50
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
HawaiiUT Arlington
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UT Arlington) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UT ArlingtonLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H14/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H20/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
22-39
22
39
-17
H21/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A06/03
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A08/03
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H13/03
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A14/03
NCAA
North Texas-Dallas
#406
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H03/11
NCAA
Portland
#245
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A07/11
NCAA
70.6Avg total
36.6Scored
34.0Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 78.5
Last 30 (30)
38.0
35.9
73.9
+2.1
60%
43%
Last 30 at home (12)
38.2
35.1
73.3
+3.2
67%
42%
Last 30 away (18)
37.8
36.4
74.2
+1.4
56%
44%
Last 10 (10)
36.6
34.0
70.6
+2.6
80%
40%
Last 5 (5)
41.0
34.6
75.6
+6.4
100%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
34.6
36.0
70.6
-1.4
60%
20%
vs Similar ◀ (14)
36.1
34.4
70.5
+1.8
50%
29%
vs Weaker (10)
41.4
38.1
79.5
+3.3
70%
70%
This opponent (Hawaii) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Hawaii win
HAWA win
no forecast
@ 1.50
UT A win
no forecast
@ 2.62
2nd half Spread Hawaii -4.5 · main lineActual: Hawaii -4.5
HAWA -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
UT A +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Hawaii (regulation)
HAWA
no forecast
@ 1.55
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
UT A
no forecast
@ 2.70
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Hawaii (regulation)
83.6%
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Hawaii -5.5
72.6%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Hawaii -6
71.7%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Hawaii -5
74.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Hawaii -4.5
75.7%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
Hawaii -4
78.0%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Hawaii -3.5
78.6%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Hawaii -3
80.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Hawaii -2.5
80.9%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Hawaii -1.5
83.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Hawaii -2
83.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Hawaii -1
85.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
UT Arlington under 75.5
79.4%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
UT Arlington under 73.5
73.5%
1.43
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Hawaii +1.5
86.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
UT Arlington under 76.5
82.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Hawaii win
85.5%
1.23
Marathon Bet
1.26
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+7.2pp
Won
Under 156
72.8%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 157
74.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Under 158
76.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
UT Arlington under 72.5
70.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.0%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.9pp
-
Hawaii +6.5
93.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Hawaii +11.5
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Under 158.5
77.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
UT Arlington under 74.5
76.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Hawaii +9.5
96.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
UT Arlington under 77.5
84.4%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
UT Arlington under 78.5
86.5%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Hawaii +4.5
91.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 157.5
75.3%
1.31
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Hawaii under 99.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Hawaii under 95.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Hawaii under 97.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
94.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 155.5
71.3%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Hawaii under 94.5
93.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Hawaii under 96.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 156.5
73.3%
1.30
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
93.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Hawaii under 93.5
92.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 155
70.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 167.5
90.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Hawaii under 92.5
90.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Hawaii under 91.5
89.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
UT Arlington over 51.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Over 122.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 162.5
83.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
89.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
UT Arlington over 52.5
92.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Hawaii under 85.5
73.5%
1.27
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
UT Arlington over 53.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Over 138
70.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
Over 126.5
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Hawaii under 90.5
87.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Hawaii under 89.5
84.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
70.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Lost
UT Arlington over 54.5
89.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Hawaii under 84.5
70.1%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Under 161.5
82.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Over 127.5
87.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Hawaii under 88.5
82.4%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
UT Arlington over 55.5
87.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Hawaii under 87.5
79.7%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
UT Arlington +20.5
77.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
72.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
Over 131.5
82.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
UT Arlington over 56.5
85.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
UT Arlington +18
71.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
UT Arlington over 57.5
83.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Hawaii under 86.5
76.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
UT Arlington +23.5
84.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
UT Arlington over 59.5
77.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
80.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
UT Arlington over 58.5
80.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
UT Arlington over 60.5
74.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
UT Arlington over 61.5
71.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
UT Arlington +18.5
71.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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