PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Hawaii will host Washington State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Hawaii the clear favourite, assigning it a 94% chance of victory largely because the Warriors have a 3-1 record, average 81.8 points scored and 63.0 points allowed per game, and sit 107th in the league, while Washington State is 0-3, averaging 67.7 points scored and 77.0 points allowed and ranking 348th. Hawaii's home slate is 3-1 with the same averages, and their last five games include a 71-62 win over UT Arlington, a 116-44 rout of Bethesda, and a 66-73 loss to Portland; Washington State's last five are all defeats, with a 71-72 loss to Duquesne, a 71-83 loss to High Point and a 61-76 loss to Davidson. The teams have met once before, Hawaii winning 62-51 on 23 December 2022. Pythia projects a 86-68 score for Hawaii, a total of 153.3 points, and gives Hawaii a 94% probability of covering the spread and a 6% chance for Washington State to win. The overtime probability is 1%.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.8 | 63.0 | 144.8 | +18.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 81.8 | 63.0 | 144.8 | +18.8 | 75% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 80.9 | 71.9 | 152.8 | +9.0 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.0 | 69.8 | 150.8 | +11.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (7) | 72.6 | 75.1 | 147.7 | -2.6 | 57% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 81.0 | 70.0 | 151.0 | +11.0 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 67.7 | 77.0 | 144.7 | -9.3 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 61.0 | 76.0 | 137.0 | -15.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 71.0 | 77.5 | 148.5 | -6.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.5 | 79.2 | 150.7 | -7.7 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.0 | 78.6 | 148.6 | -8.6 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 69.5 | 77.3 | 146.8 | -7.7 | 20% |
| vs Similar (12) | 77.8 | 75.5 | 153.2 | +2.2 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 88.0 | 84.0 | 172.0 | +4.0 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 33.2 | 69.8 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.1 | 31.4 | 69.5 | +6.6 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 34.4 | 35.8 | 70.2 | -1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 35.0 | 72.9 | +2.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.4 | 36.2 | 77.6 | +5.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (7) | 30.6 | 34.7 | 65.3 | -4.1 | 43% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (22) | 38.0 | 33.1 | 71.1 | +4.9 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.3 | 36.0 | 72.3 | +0.3 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 38.6 | 35.8 | 74.4 | +2.8 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.3 | 36.1 | 70.4 | -1.8 | 44% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.8 | 35.8 | 70.6 | -1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.8 | 31.4 | 61.2 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (15) | 34.0 | 37.8 | 71.8 | -3.8 | 40% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 38.6 | 32.2 | 70.8 | +6.3 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 38.7 | 41.7 | 80.3 | -3.0 | 33% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24/12/22 | Hawaii v Washington State | 62-51 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Portland | 66-73 |
| 09/11/26 | H | UT Arlington | 71-62 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Bethesda | 116-44 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Seattle | 74-73 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Arkansas | 78-97 |
| 15/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 71-64 |
| 14/03/26 | H | CS Fullerton | 78-63 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Long Beach State | 75-84 |
| 06/03/26 | H | UC Riverside | 93-74 |
| 01/03/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 87-85 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Duquesne | 71-72 |
| 07/11/26 | A | High Point | 71-83 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Davidson | 61-76 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Portland | 68-74 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Pepperdine | 79-88 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Loyola Marymount | 66-67 |
| 22/02/26 | H | St. Marys (CA) | 67-83 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Pacific | 87-70 |
| 11/02/26 | A | Gonzaga | 53-83 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Santa Clara | 92-96 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWL | 75% |
| Home | WWWL | 75% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | - |
| Points / game | 81.8 | 81.8 | - |
| Allowed / game | 63.0 | 63.0 | - |
| Point differential | +18.8 | +18.8 | - |
| Avg total | 144.8 | 144.8 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 25% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 67.7 | 61.0 | 71.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.0 | 76.0 | 77.5 |
| Point differential | -9.3 | -15.0 | -6.5 |
| Avg total | 144.7 | 137.0 | 148.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 2 |  UC Riverside | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 60.7 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 5 |  CSU Bakersfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 72.3 | +19.3 |
| 6 | Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.7 | 86.0 | +2.7 |
| 9 |  CS Northridge | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 81.0 | +3.3 |
| 10 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oregon State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 97.3 | 71.0 | +26.3 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 72.5 | +13.2 |
| 3 |  San Francisco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 63.3 | +9.3 |
| 4 |  Pacific | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 |
| 5 |  St. Marys (CA) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 96.7 | 81.7 | +15.0 |
| 6 |  San Diego Toreros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 78.3 | +5.0 |
| 7 |  Pepperdine | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 |
| 8 |  Gonzaga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 |
| 9 |  Portland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 93.5 | -6.8 |
| 10 |  Seattle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 |
| 11 |  Loyola Marymount | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 |
| 12 | Washington State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.7 | 77.0 | -9.3 |
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