On 11 November 2026 the Houston Cougars host the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model deems a 97% win for Houston, a probability driven by Houston's 1-1 record, 81.0 points per game and only 70.5 allowed, and a 83-61 projected score that places Houston comfortably ahead. Houston has played two games this season, winning one and losing one, and has a perfect 1-0 home record with 94.0 points scored and 55.0 allowed; the Cougars' last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 94-55 home victory over La Salle and a 68-86 away loss to California. Jacksonville State also stands at 1-1, averaging 101.5 points and conceding 71.0, but their road record is 0-1 with 80.0 points scored and 83.0 allowed; their last five games feature two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 123-59 home win over Hannibal-LaGrange and an 80-83 away loss to South Alabama. The model gives Houston a 97% chance to win and a 3% chance for Jacksonville State, projects a total of 144.7 points, and assigns a 67% probability that the game will exceed the 137.5 over/under line, with a 1% chance of overtime. The final score is expected to be 83-61 in Houston's favour.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Houston winWon
96.8%fair 1.03
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Jacksonville State winLost
3.2%fair 31.28
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Houston) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132.5Actual: Over 132.5
Over 132.5
77.6%
@ 1.62+18.0pp
Under 132.5
22.4%
@ 2.50-18.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 137.5 · main lineActual: Over 137.5
Over 137.5
67.3%
@ 2.10+20.5pp
Under 137.5
32.7%
@ 1.85-20.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.99
BetVictor
1.85
Under
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
55.4%
@ 2.92+23.2pp
Under 142.5
44.6%
@ 1.38-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.92
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.34
📊 3. Team Totals
Houston total 82Actual: Houston over 82
Over 82
55.9%
Under 82
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston total 86 · main lineActual: Houston over 86
Over 86
39.2%
@ 1.85-10.8pp
Under 86
60.8%
@ 1.85+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Houston total 90Actual: Houston over 90
Over 90
24.4%
Under 90
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jacksonville State total 47.5Actual: Jacksonville State under 47.5
Over 47.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under 47.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.18
Jacksonville State total 51.5 · main lineActual: Jacksonville State under 51.5
Over 51.5
83.8%
@ 2.22+34.6pp
Under 51.5
16.2%
@ 1.85-34.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.53
Jacksonville State total 55.5Actual: Jacksonville State under 55.5
Over 55.5
72.0%
@ 3.70+45.7pp
Under 55.5
28.0%
@ 1.27-45.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.70
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Houston -40Actual: Houston -40
HOUS -40
no forecast
@ 2.35
JACK +40
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
HOUS
Bet365
2.35
JACK
Bet365
1.54
Spread Houston -37 · main lineActual: Houston -37
HOUS -37
no forecast
@ 1.95
JACK +37
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
HOUS
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
JACK
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.74
Spread Houston -34Actual: Houston -34
HOUS -34
no forecast
@ 1.66
JACK +34
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
HOUS
Bet365
1.66
JACK
Bet365
2.15
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
HoustonJacksonville State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Jacksonville State over 54.5
75.3%
3.20
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+46.6pp
Lost
Jacksonville State over 55.5
72.0%
3.45
Bet365
3.70
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.15
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
Jacksonville State over 53.5
78.3%
2.75
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+45.0pp
Lost
Jacksonville State over 52.5
81.2%
2.50
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.45
-
-
+44.2pp
Lost
Jacksonville State over 51
85.8%
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
-
-
+36.6pp
Lost
Jacksonville State over 51.5
83.8%
1.94
Betano
2.22
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+34.6pp
Lost
Over 136
71.0%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.81
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+19.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
73.7%
1.73
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.66
-
+19.6pp
Won
Over 135
73.2%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
75.7%
1.62
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Over 135.5
71.7%
1.81
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
+19.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
77.6%
1.56
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Over 131.5
79.5%
1.50
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Over 134
75.2%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Over 130.5
81.2%
1.44
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Over 133
77.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Over 129.5
82.8%
1.39
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Over 132
79.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Over 131
80.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Over 128.5
84.4%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Over 130
82.5%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Over 129
84.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Houston under 89.5
73.2%
1.49
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.42
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Houston under 91.5
79.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Lost
Houston under 92.5
82.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Houston under 93.5
84.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Houston under 95.5
88.9%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
87.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Houston under 90.5
76.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Houston under 96.5
90.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
85.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Houston under 97.5
92.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Houston under 99.5
94.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Over 122.5
91.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Houston over 71.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Houston over 73.5
84.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Houston over 75.5
78.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Houston over 76.5
75.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Houston over 77.5
72.5%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Under 161.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Under 157.5
78.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Under 156.5
76.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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