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Indiana State vs Illinois (Chi.) Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 79-63
35-31 44-32
Position#311
Record10-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game73.8
Allowed / game75.2
vs
Position#155
Record17-13
FormWWWLW
Points / game75.7
Allowed / game69.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Indiana State v Illinois (Chi.)
01 Mar 2026
INDI79
ILLI63
24 Feb 2024
INDI88
ILLI73
07 Jan 2023
INDI80
ILLI60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Indiana State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois (Chi.) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Indiana StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
L
62-76
62
76
-14
H24/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
74-76
74
76
-2
A28/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
72-76 OT
72
76
-4
H31/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
84-63
84
63
+21
A04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
65-80
65
80
-15
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
72-74
72
74
-2
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
75-76
75
76
-1
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-81
60
81
-21
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
55-66
55
66
-11
A26/02
NCAA
1H
2H
24-26
38-50
32-41
42-35
37-27
29-39
46-29
38-34
32-37
33-43
21-43
51-31
43-49
32-27
34-36
26-45
25-39
45-48
23-36
32-30
144.4Avg total
68.9Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)73.875.2149.0-1.533%
Season at home (14)77.473.1150.6+4.350%
Season away (16)70.677.1147.6-6.519%
Last 10 (10)68.975.5144.4-6.610%
Last 5 (5)66.476.8143.2-10.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)71.178.9150.1-7.824%
vs Similar (7)71.073.4144.4-2.429%
vs Weaker (6)84.566.8151.3+17.767%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#91
W
85-70
85
70
+15
A25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H28/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A01/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
74-81
74
81
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
62-68
62
68
-6
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
80-70
80
70
+10
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
83-56
83
56
+27
H15/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
84-46
84
46
+38
A19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
67-71
67
71
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
93-86 OT
93
86
+7
H25/02
NCAA
1H
2H
39-28
46-42
41-32
35-42
25-36
43-30
33-40
41-41
26-38
36-30
40-38
40-32
33-26
50-30
38-23
46-23
29-31
38-40
39-28
33-44
146.0Avg total
77.2Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)75.769.5145.2+6.257%
Season at home (15)77.966.3144.3+11.667%
Season away (15)73.572.7146.2+0.747%
Last 10 (10)77.268.8146.0+8.470%
Last 5 (5)81.465.8147.2+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)73.085.0158.0-12.00%
vs Similar (13)73.570.8144.3+2.854%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)76.567.2143.7+9.364%
This opponent (Indiana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -4.6-4.61st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: -1.6-1.62nd half: +5.4+5.4
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -4.6-4.61st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: -1.6-1.62nd half: +5.4+5.4
Indiana StateIllinois (Chi.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Indiana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#271
L
24-26
24
26
-2
H24/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H31/01
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
21-43
21
43
-22
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A26/02
NCAA
68.0Avg total
31.7Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.736.471.0-1.740%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.933.470.4+3.557%-
Last 30 away (16)32.738.971.6-6.225%-
Last 10 (10)31.736.368.0-4.620%-
Last 5 (5)29.240.669.8-11.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)32.438.470.8-5.929%-
vs Similar (7)34.735.370.0-0.629%-
vs Weaker (6)41.032.073.0+9.083%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#91
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A25/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A04/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H07/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A13/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H15/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
38-23
38
23
+15
A19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H25/02
NCAA
66.3Avg total
34.3Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.731.065.7+3.763%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.327.963.3+7.480%-
Last 30 away (15)34.134.168.1+0.047%-
Last 10 (10)34.332.066.3+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)35.829.265.0+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.538.073.5-2.50%-
vs Similar (13)32.531.864.2+0.762%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)35.929.765.6+6.271%-
This opponent (Indiana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Indiana State wins
1
Illinois (Chi.) wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26ASouthern Illinois55-66
22/02/26ABelmont70-87
19/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-81
15/02/26AValparaiso75-76
13/02/26HMurray State72-74
10/02/26HSouthern Illinois65-80
04/02/26AEvansville84-63
31/01/26HValparaiso72-76 OT
28/01/26AIllinois (Chi.)74-76
24/01/26HDrake62-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HBradley93-86 OT
21/02/26HValparaiso67-71
19/02/26AEvansville84-46
15/02/26HIllinois State83-56
13/02/26ADrake80-70
07/02/26HBelmont62-68
04/02/26AMurray State74-81
01/02/26ASouthern Illinois68-66
28/01/26HIndiana State76-74
25/01/26ABradley85-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Indiana State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL33%
HomeLLLLL50%
AwayLWLLL19%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301416
Win %33%50%19%
Points / game73.877.470.6
Allowed / game75.273.177.1
Point differential-1.5+4.3-6.5
Avg total149.0150.6147.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%29%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)40% (5)17% (6)
Overtime %10%21%0%
Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayWWLWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %57%67%47%
Points / game75.777.973.5
Allowed / game69.566.372.7
Point differential+6.2+11.6+0.7
Avg total145.2144.3146.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%47%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)25% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %10%7%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont3126584%83.373.1+10.2
2 Murray State30201067%83.779.3+4.4
3 Illinois State30191163%75.768.1+7.6
4 Bradley30191163%77.172.9+4.2
5 Northern Iowa30181260%69.161.4+7.7
6 Illinois (Chi.)30171357%75.769.5+6.2
7 Valparaiso31171455%71.971.2+0.7
8 Southern Illinois30151550%73.169.7+3.3
9 Drake30121840%76.075.2+0.9
10 Indiana State30102033%73.875.2-1.5
11 Evansville3072323%67.276.6-9.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Indiana State354479
Illinois (Chi.)313263
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